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Tue May 22, 2018, 10:49 AM

WTF! GOP Takes Lead in 2018 Generic Poll By 6 Points

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/week/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170601-20180523/collapsed/true

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Reply WTF! GOP Takes Lead in 2018 Generic Poll By 6 Points (Original post)
highmindedhavi May 2018 OP
inwiththenew May 2018 #1
JustAnotherGen May 2018 #3
sunRISEnow May 2018 #13
JustAnotherGen May 2018 #2
backtoblue May 2018 #21
TimeSnowDemos May 2018 #4
global1 May 2018 #5
leftynyc May 2018 #7
NCTraveler May 2018 #8
EffieBlack May 2018 #12
sunRISEnow May 2018 #15
leftynyc May 2018 #6
bigtree May 2018 #9
Proud Liberal Dem May 2018 #11
dalton99a May 2018 #18
RKP5637 May 2018 #10
triron May 2018 #14
Demsrule86 May 2018 #16
pbmus May 2018 #17
FBaggins May 2018 #19
pnwmom May 2018 #23
TheRealNorth May 2018 #30
JustAnotherGen May 2018 #33
Thrill May 2018 #20
pnwmom May 2018 #22
Bengus81 May 2018 #24
RandiFan1290 May 2018 #25
DemocratSinceBirth May 2018 #29
Anon-C May 2018 #26
cyclonefence May 2018 #27
GoCubsGo May 2018 #28
obliviously May 2018 #31
DemocratSinceBirth May 2018 #32
ieoeja2 May 2018 #34
Dawson Leery May 2018 #35

Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 10:53 AM

1. An outlier

I wouldn't get too worried yet. If you see more trending that way, well then we have problem.

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Response to inwiththenew (Reply #1)

Tue May 22, 2018, 10:54 AM

3. The polls can't be trusted

Not anymore.

We have to register voters and ignore the polls.

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Response to inwiththenew (Reply #1)

Tue May 22, 2018, 11:11 AM

13. Seeing how Democrats have had such a strong win across the nation, I find it hard to believe, too.

 

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 10:53 AM

2. I can't focus on that

Fight, Run, Win.

This election (mid term) will be unlike any before. Mark me on that.

We don't have to follow the rules.

We don't have to play nice.

45 / 140 is abnormal, Republicans in the House and Senate are abnormal - I can't deal with pollsters trying to normalize things.


ETA - Play with the filters on the right. NJ has an insufficient sample size of White, Female Voters, All Ages.

So this tells me everything and nothing about the 11th and 7th congressional districts here.

Mark me - those two seats will go to the Democratic Candidates.

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #2)

Tue May 22, 2018, 12:08 PM

21. Agree!

Keep fighting. Keep our focus.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 10:56 AM

4. Americans

 

Remember, these are the same people that re-elected W. The same people that re-elect 90% of incumbents then moan that nothing changes...

don't be too surprised if Trump gets re-elected.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 10:57 AM

5. We're Watching The Blue Tsunami Turn Into A Blue Wave Turn Into A.....

Blue (sad) puddle.

Where are the Dems? They should be all over the MSM and back in their home states and districts - rallying the Dems to GOTV in historic numbers.

Again we can't take Nov 2018 for granted. We must turn out the voters to make this a most historic election. More people voting than in any election ever.

The Dems need to get out there now and beat the streets. They can't wait until Sept or Oct. Actually they should have started before now.

I'm afraid that they think this election is in the bag. We can't assume that. GOTV!!!!!!!

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Response to global1 (Reply #5)

Tue May 22, 2018, 10:59 AM

7. Dems are tuning out

 

for the same reason they stayed home in '16. Because everyone was foolishly talking about how it was in the bag.

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Response to global1 (Reply #5)

Tue May 22, 2018, 10:59 AM

8. That is the trend you are seeing in elections?

 

"Blue (sad) puddle."

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Response to global1 (Reply #5)

Tue May 22, 2018, 11:05 AM

12. Calm down

And get to work.

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Response to global1 (Reply #5)

Tue May 22, 2018, 11:12 AM

15. That is not backed by the elections we have seen across the nation.

 

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 10:58 AM

6. Good - perhaps this will light

 

a fire under more Democrats and Independents. It was everyone assuming Hillary would win that did us in last time. I hope these polls get even worse.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 10:59 AM

9. yesterday 19 House races were shifted, all in favor of Democrats.

 

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Response to bigtree (Reply #9)

Tue May 22, 2018, 11:02 AM

11. Yeah. That's looks bad for us



Seems like one piece of information may not be in sync with the other. And guess which information the MSM is going to trumpet?

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Response to bigtree (Reply #9)

Tue May 22, 2018, 11:20 AM

18. +1

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 10:59 AM

10. Never underestimate the Americans' ability to vote for the worst candidates and the worst policies.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 11:12 AM

14. What is their methodology and sample size?

I see the trend has been toward GOP lately.
Based on recent election results not credible.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 11:12 AM

16. Sorry to disappoint..but the GOP is fucked.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 11:18 AM

17. Bullshit poll....

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 11:55 AM

19. That's three in a row from them that have been whacky

That makes statistical variability less of an explanation. Id very much like to know where their model differs from the rest.

I would buy that things have tightened (given the economy etc.)... but nothing like this.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #19)

Tue May 22, 2018, 12:13 PM

23. It's an online poll with self-selected responders, not based on a probability sample.

So there is no way to calculate statistical variability.

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #23)

Tue May 22, 2018, 12:50 PM

30. It was an online poll....

Limited to those who drink more than 12oz of Vodka a day.

In all seriousness though, the Republican Think (fink) tanks here in the Midwest ARE already hard at work laying the groundwork for the fall with their local media allies. There was just a piece in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel written by the American Enterprise Institute (based in MN) giving an assist to Walker about how things are so much better in WI. The only thing I got out of it is that it confirmed my suspicion that a regular MinnPost commenter was an AEI hack. So we also know they are spreading their propaganda on the message boards as well.

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #23)

Tue May 22, 2018, 01:17 PM

33. Thanks I played with the filters

And white women in NJ - not a big enough sample set for results from 5/15 to 5/22?

I don't believe that for one minute.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 11:59 AM

20. Everyone wants to continue to ignore how bad Democrats

Are at messaging.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 12:12 PM

22. Why do we take these online polls seriously? n/t

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 12:13 PM

24. It's an online poll??? And Reuters think the results mean something?



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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 12:14 PM

25. Welcome Back to DU!

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Response to RandiFan1290 (Reply #25)

Tue May 22, 2018, 12:44 PM

29. Why do we continually allow ourselves to get played ?

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 12:16 PM

26. Act as if, Democrats. Take NOTHING for granted.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 12:18 PM

27. If we learned anything in the 2016 election

I hope we learned not to rely on polls to determine our strategy.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 12:20 PM

28. There has to be an error there somewhere.

I played around with the filters a bit. In every category I clicked on, the Democrats held the lead. Granted, I ddin't look at every category. Also, they did not provide a breakdown of of the number of people polled in each category. One can easily skew a poll like this by polling mainly under-educated and old white guys. This poll reeks and is not to be trusted.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 01:05 PM

31. We need to get Russia back on our side!

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Response to obliviously (Reply #31)

Tue May 22, 2018, 01:12 PM

32. When was Russia ever on our side ?

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 01:28 PM

34. Same reason Bill Clinton got re-elected despite low popularity numbers in 1996.

 


People who voted for Bill in 1992 disappointed in his presidency voted for him in 1996 anyway just to piss off the people who kept attacking them for that 1992 vote.

Every single Trump voter I personally know hated to learn that Trump's campaign act turned out to be no act. Every single one of them ranted and railed against Trump last year saying they couldn't wait to vote him out of office. Today, every single one of them says they are looking forward to re-electing Trump because they are pissed at being attacked every day.

Non-stop coverage of Trump got him into office in the first place. Non-stop coverage of Trump is going to get him re-elected.

As the saying goes, there is no such thing as bad advertisement.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2018, 01:32 PM

35. All these polls showing Democrats losing momentum have a high

number of undecideds. 25% in most cases.

Such polls need to be questioned.

Look at the wins we took over the past year. They do not dovetail with these polls.

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