WTF! GOP Takes Lead in 2018 Generic Poll By 6 Points

[highmindedhavi]

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/week/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170601-20180523/collapsed/true

[inwiththenew]

1. An outlier

I wouldn't get too worried yet. If you see more trending that way, well then we have problem.

[JustAnotherGen]

3. The polls can't be trusted

Not anymore.

We have to register voters and ignore the polls.

[sunRISEnow]

13. Seeing how Democrats have had such a strong win across the nation, I find it hard to believe, too.

[JustAnotherGen]

2. I can't focus on that

Fight, Run, Win.

This election (mid term) will be unlike any before. Mark me on that.

We don't have to follow the rules.

We don't have to play nice.

45 / 140 is abnormal, Republicans in the House and Senate are abnormal - I can't deal with pollsters trying to normalize things.


ETA - Play with the filters on the right. NJ has an insufficient sample size of White, Female Voters, All Ages.

So this tells me everything and nothing about the 11th and 7th congressional districts here.

Mark me - those two seats will go to the Democratic Candidates.

[backtoblue]

21. Agree!

Keep fighting. Keep our focus.

[TimeSnowDemos]

4. Americans

Remember, these are the same people that re-elected W. The same people that re-elect 90% of incumbents then moan that nothing changes...

don't be too surprised if Trump gets re-elected.

[global1]

5. We're Watching The Blue Tsunami Turn Into A Blue Wave Turn Into A.....

Blue (sad) puddle.

Where are the Dems? They should be all over the MSM and back in their home states and districts - rallying the Dems to GOTV in historic numbers.

Again we can't take Nov 2018 for granted. We must turn out the voters to make this a most historic election. More people voting than in any election ever.

The Dems need to get out there now and beat the streets. They can't wait until Sept or Oct. Actually they should have started before now.

I'm afraid that they think this election is in the bag. We can't assume that. GOTV!!!!!!!

[leftynyc]

7. Dems are tuning out

for the same reason they stayed home in '16. Because everyone was foolishly talking about how it was in the bag.

[NCTraveler]

8. That is the trend you are seeing in elections?

"Blue (sad) puddle."

[EffieBlack]

12. Calm down

And get to work.

[sunRISEnow]

15. That is not backed by the elections we have seen across the nation.

[leftynyc]

6. Good - perhaps this will light

a fire under more Democrats and Independents. It was everyone assuming Hillary would win that did us in last time. I hope these polls get even worse.

[bigtree]

9. yesterday 19 House races were shifted, all in favor of Democrats.

Link to tweet

[Proud Liberal Dem]

11. Yeah. That's looks bad for us

Seems like one piece of information may not be in sync with the other. And guess which information the MSM is going to trumpet?

[dalton99a]

18. +1

[RKP5637]

10. Never underestimate the Americans' ability to vote for the worst candidates and the worst policies.

[triron]

14. What is their methodology and sample size?

I see the trend has been toward GOP lately.
Based on recent election results not credible.

[Demsrule86]

16. Sorry to disappoint..but the GOP is fucked.

[pbmus]

17. Bullshit poll....

[FBaggins]

19. That's three in a row from them that have been whacky

That makes statistical variability less of an explanation. I’d very much like to know where their model differs from the rest.

I would buy that things have tightened (given the economy etc.)... but nothing like this.

[pnwmom]

23. It's an online poll with self-selected responders, not based on a probability sample.

So there is no way to calculate statistical variability.

[TheRealNorth]

30. It was an online poll....

Limited to those who drink more than 12oz of Vodka a day.

In all seriousness though, the Republican Think (fink) tanks here in the Midwest ARE already hard at work laying the groundwork for the fall with their local media allies. There was just a piece in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel written by the American Enterprise Institute (based in MN) giving an assist to Walker about how things are so much better in WI. The only thing I got out of it is that it confirmed my suspicion that a regular MinnPost commenter was an AEI hack. So we also know they are spreading their propaganda on the message boards as well.

[JustAnotherGen]

33. Thanks I played with the filters

And white women in NJ - not a big enough sample set for results from 5/15 to 5/22?

I don't believe that for one minute.

[Thrill]

20. Everyone wants to continue to ignore how bad Democrats

Are at messaging.

[pnwmom]

22. Why do we take these online polls seriously? n/t

[Bengus81]

24. It's an online poll??? And Reuters think the results mean something?

[RandiFan1290]

25. Welcome Back to DU!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Why do we continually allow ourselves to get played ?

[Anon-C]

26. Act as if, Democrats. Take NOTHING for granted.

[cyclonefence]

27. If we learned anything in the 2016 election

I hope we learned not to rely on polls to determine our strategy.

[GoCubsGo]

28. There has to be an error there somewhere.

I played around with the filters a bit. In every category I clicked on, the Democrats held the lead. Granted, I ddin't look at every category. Also, they did not provide a breakdown of of the number of people polled in each category. One can easily skew a poll like this by polling mainly under-educated and old white guys. This poll reeks and is not to be trusted.

[obliviously]

31. We need to get Russia back on our side!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. When was Russia ever on our side ?

[ieoeja2]

34. Same reason Bill Clinton got re-elected despite low popularity numbers in 1996.

People who voted for Bill in 1992 disappointed in his presidency voted for him in 1996 anyway just to piss off the people who kept attacking them for that 1992 vote.

Every single Trump voter I personally know hated to learn that Trump's campaign act turned out to be no act. Every single one of them ranted and railed against Trump last year saying they couldn't wait to vote him out of office. Today, every single one of them says they are looking forward to re-electing Trump because they are pissed at being attacked every day.

Non-stop coverage of Trump got him into office in the first place. Non-stop coverage of Trump is going to get him re-elected.

As the saying goes, there is no such thing as bad advertisement.

[Dawson Leery]

35. All these polls showing Democrats losing momentum have a high

number of undecideds. 25% in most cases.

Such polls need to be questioned.

Look at the wins we took over the past year. They do not dovetail with these polls.