Rating Changes in 19 House Races, All Toward Democrats

[workinclasszero]

In total, 68 GOP-held seats are now rated competitive
Nathan L. Gonzales Posted May 21, 2018 5:03 AM

After the latest round of changes, Inside Elections now has 68 Republican seats rated as vulnerable compared to just 10 vulnerable Democratic seats. And there are at least a couple dozen more GOP-held seats that could develop into competitive races in the months ahead.

That discrepancy in the playing field is reminiscent of previous “wave” elections. In April 2010, there were 68 vulnerable Democratic House seats and 11 vulnerable Republican seats. Republicans gained 63 seats later than year. And in May 2006, there were 42 vulnerable Republican seats and 11 vulnerable Democratic seats. Six months later, Democrats gained 30 seats.

Of course, just because a seat is vulnerable, it doesn’t mean a race is lost. But the larger number of vulnerable seats means Democrats need to win a smaller proportion of the total competitive districts to gain the 23 seats necessary for the majority.


http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/rating-changes-in-19-house-races-all-toward-democrats

[beachbum bob]

1. The wave is building...even as MSM tries to play dirty with

Democratic Party...just as they did with Hillary. Imagine if 10 million NEW voters under 25 register to vote and half of the voted in November?....imagine how high the wave will be?

[workinclasszero]

2. Yup the MSM doesn't really want to give up the GOP

It's as you say though. If young people have had enough of the thoughts and prayers of the damned republican party, they can join with democrats this fall and boot their fat asses out of power permanently!

[Dem_4_Life]

3. I keep waiting for TX 21 to move again

We were at Solid Republican and now are Likely Republican....UGH

Either way we will fight to the bitter end!

[KPN]

4. Bullshit. We can't trust this stuff. The polls were in our favor in 2016 -- hugely -- and

where did that get us? Complacency is our enemy and these polls build it. We can't let that happen this time. GOTV!

[BlueWI]

5. Truth here.

Six months till election day. Democrats, let's win this from coast to coast!! There's still time to bring back sanity in USA governance, but it will take everyone doing all they can!!

[DemocracyMouse]

8. Do you mean Get Out The TV?

[progressoid]

9. Yup. Trump's numbers are rising and the GOP is getting riled up again.

[NewJeffCT]

12. The polls weren't big in our favor in 2016

most of the national polls had Clinton ahead in the final days by 3-5 points. She won by what, 2.5%? State polls were off, but those are harder ti get a good read on.

If you had said the polls were big in favor of the Democrats prior to Jason Chaffetz leaking the info on Comey re-opening the email investigation, I would have agreed. However, the daily tracking poll had Clinton up 51-38 that day and she was down 44-43 the next.

[KPN]

13. My recollection was greater than 4-5 nationslly

in final days. More like 7-10, but I was out of town visiting family the two weeks before the election and didn't pay a lot of attention so may be I'm wrong.

[NewJeffCT]

14. RCP had 3 polls from election day itself

one was Trump +2, another was Trump +3 and the last was Clinton +1

The 20 polls released the day before election day averaged out to Clinton by 3.3%

If you combine all 23 day of and day before polls, it was Clinton by 2.7%

[Honeycombe8]

6. It'll be rainin' DEMS, soon!

The Blue Wave is a comin'.

[workinclasszero]

7. The blue wave is the only way

to save American democracy.

GO DEMS!!!!

[redstatebluegirl]

10. I don't believe polls anymore, not after 2016.

We have to run scared like our lives depend on it because they do! GOTV drag people to vote, if people think it is in the bag, they stay home. THIS IS NOT IN THE BAG!

[Zambero]

17. Fortunately

Each congressional races, unlike the presidency, is decided by a direct popular vote. Not sure if that makes congressional polls more reliable or predictable, but it can be said that there's one less variable (EC) to consider.

[blue-wave]

11. To hell with the polls

and the republicon leaning media. Work every election as if your life depended on it. Never stop. Politics is like life in this respect.....it is a never ending struggle.

[C Moon]

15. We're picking up a lot of seats, etc, now, but come the November elections if this flips

we'll KNOW Russia is doing something.

[CanonRay]

16. But...but....it's a horserace. It's tightening!

[aeromanKC]

18. Polls were more accurate before Electronic Voting machines.

Odd.