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Sat May 19, 2018, 11:20 AM

Democrats lead in the generic ballot is shrinking

We're under 5% and the latest Ipsos poll shows Republicans with a 1 point lead. We won't reclaim the House if those numbers hold up. The GOP have unlimited amounts of money and are very well organized. Student canvassers have supposedly have already rung 10-million doorbells for GOP candidates this year. i think we're seeing that effort reflected in the polling for the generic ballot. If you think a blue wave is inevitable, remember, so was Hillary. Support the Party, join with others, organize, work for your local candidates. We must not fail.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

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Arrow 22 replies Author Time Post
Reply Democrats lead in the generic ballot is shrinking (Original post)
pscot May 2018 OP
Crutchez_CuiBono May 2018 #1
Loki Liesmith May 2018 #2
Crutchez_CuiBono May 2018 #4
Iwasthere May 2018 #12
Crutchez_CuiBono May 2018 #18
InAbLuEsTaTe May 2018 #5
Kotya May 2018 #15
Raine May 2018 #19
Civic Justice May 2018 #3
Crutchez_CuiBono May 2018 #13
Greybnk48 May 2018 #6
Civic Justice May 2018 #7
Crutchez_CuiBono May 2018 #14
Civic Justice May 2018 #16
Crutchez_CuiBono May 2018 #17
Civic Justice May 2018 #21
Dawson Leery May 2018 #8
Dawson Leery May 2018 #20
DemocratSinceBirth May 2018 #9
pscot May 2018 #10
DemocratSinceBirth May 2018 #11
McCamy Taylor May 2018 #22

Response to pscot (Original post)

Sat May 19, 2018, 11:24 AM

1. It's pretty routine actually

this is the formula for how elections are stolen. Even if the numbers are wrong, they say they are right to start turning expectations away from whatever victory we think we are going to have. Then it's neck and neck right before the election, and kabam, the repub wins by a nose. It's diminishing expectations so folks aren't in the streets w pitchforks. Instead it's like..."Oh, maybe I missed something and that's what happened...oh well."
This is how our system fails us.

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Response to Crutchez_CuiBono (Reply #1)

Sat May 19, 2018, 11:38 AM

2. No elections are being stole

This is normal statistical variation.

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Reply #2)

Sat May 19, 2018, 11:45 AM

4. Sure thing.

TTY when dt wins again and rotten repubs seem to somehow squeek by in Nov. It's a media driven format for desensitizing people to what they can see with their own eyes.

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Response to Crutchez_CuiBono (Reply #4)

Sat May 19, 2018, 12:49 PM

12. Exactly!

Media driven

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Response to Iwasthere (Reply #12)

Sat May 19, 2018, 08:28 PM

18. Media driven...by media owners and shareholders,

not some nebulous entity known collectively as..."the media."

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Response to Crutchez_CuiBono (Reply #1)

Sat May 19, 2018, 11:46 AM

5. So depressing... if the Democrats don't at least take the House and impeach that fuck

occupying the White House, we're screwed beyond belief. Would be nice if we took over the Senate too, if, for no other reason, than to have some semblance of control over Supreme nominations by the Racist-in-Chief.

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Response to InAbLuEsTaTe (Reply #5)

Sat May 19, 2018, 01:09 PM

15. Trump isn't getting impeached.

 

I don't know why people here continue to believe this will be a realistic outcome of the 2018 midterm elections. It's pure fantasy. Even party leadership is backing away from the "I-word".

Problem is, Trump isn't losing his base! Not only does his base refuse to budge, but establishment GOP have reluctantly began to circle the wagons around him.

Do you think House and Senate Democratic candidates from red states where Trump won and is still popular can make "impeach the President" the cornerstone of their campaigns?

Until his base abandons him, it's not going to happen.

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Response to Kotya (Reply #15)

Sat May 19, 2018, 09:47 PM

19. Exactly plus if he was actually

impeached it doesn't mean he's leaving office, Clinton was impeached but served full two terms.

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Response to pscot (Original post)

Sat May 19, 2018, 11:41 AM

3. I've said it all along but DU'er seem to dismiss it. "WE NEED TO PROMOTE THE PUBLIC NARRATIVE"

 

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210525902

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=10525950

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=10516648

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=10522221

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210594316

a litany of Jokes, Pun's and Slap Stick One Liner's is not going to work to expand the Democratic Support that is truly needed.

People come and read, it matter's that they find substantive commentary that helps them expand their investment and promote outreach..
When they see nothing but a long list of jokes and puns, eventually it does nothing for them to bond them to the party nor support Ideals, because the ideals are not being promoted as Public Narrative.

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Response to Civic Justice (Reply #3)

Sat May 19, 2018, 12:53 PM

13. I'm loathe to open websites anymore

but, it appears you put some time in it. A micro-thanks for the effort. Glad you are thinking about it.

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Response to pscot (Original post)

Sat May 19, 2018, 11:46 AM

6. Well we keep kicking ass in special elections, so

that's what matters.

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Response to Greybnk48 (Reply #6)

Sat May 19, 2018, 12:00 PM

7. It matters too... to EXPAND our numbers

 

BUT ... also to expand the promotion of the Democratic Narrative and Attract many from all places... to bond with truths that benefit all of society.

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Response to Civic Justice (Reply #7)

Sat May 19, 2018, 12:54 PM

14. It's completely true.

Everyone is so divided now it's scary to just talk to people you dont know bc you never know what the response is going to be.

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Response to Crutchez_CuiBono (Reply #14)

Sat May 19, 2018, 01:23 PM

16. I hear you... especially within this site.

 

Last edited Sat May 19, 2018, 05:12 PM - Edit history (3)

I personally am not of any fear to speak..even to the DU'er, whom some talk a good game, but don't show up, with substantive commentary that truly exemplifies the nature of Democracy, and the rudimentary truths that is necessary for Equality to become and be 100% FULL CIRCLE, WITH FULL DEPTH as a highly promoted PUBLIC NARRATIVE!!!

To date, I'm not impressed with this site, and it is far short of what I thought it would be and what it would present, in promoting Democratic Narrative and Being Pro Equality without question and without reserve, and certainly without contending points that seem to want to challenge "equality dialog and conversations that discuss the realism of the racism within society" are elements within the challenges to what we claim to want of Democracy. Even when it comes to discussions of race, which is the core of what divided this nation in the first place and divides it even today... people in this site balk at such discussion and some come to challenge with aims to dismiss the truths of what is racism, what is the truth of the embedded history of racist ideology from the long history of Jim Crow influence that saturated itself in white american society. It too damaged by many means black society, in ways that still this day promote a uphill challenges in the midst of falling boulder of racism ignorance tumbling down upon them each and every step.
I'd have thought this site would be far more versed and involved to face every element of racism, including how the impacts of 100's of years of Jim Crow influenced white America and promoted the madness of white privilege mentality. But, truth is, I've seen that many are fine with it, until it reaches their doorsteps and into the deep confines within the mind, as I've seen many unfounded and confounding challenges when such commentary of OP's address the make up elements that are involved within the recesses that Jim Crow Ideals influenced, as well as the recesses within ways of living that white privilege influenced the thoughts about life and things.

I've mostly seen only post that can garner slap stick, jokes and puns, get a great bit of focus, substantive commentary generated by members who truly seek and make effort to talk about things that can promote in-depth Democratic Narratives, get glossed over and certainly is ignored with regard to REC's.. and all such things themselves tell a story, but many will deny that story, but their actions confirm the story being told.

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Response to Civic Justice (Reply #16)

Sat May 19, 2018, 07:59 PM

17. Yes. But, there IS a point to it.

It seems this place is more than just a site that forges through issues like Carrie nation w her axe. it's designed to be a place for Democrats and Progressive Democratic voices to sound off on news articles and to be a place of shelter from the right wing lunacy that pervades so many places. (I'm gathering.)
I agree that messages need to be promoted, but, in all candor, most all of us here are of the same mind. You'd be preaching to the choir (in essence) in making points like the ones you espoused above. In my experience those movements are best addressed with your representative to congress as well as expressing your ideas here. We can all huddle together and be annoyed about the vast rwnj element of our society, which truly is just loud and angry, certainly not reflected in the actual tally of votes at the end of the day.
Most Americans are left leaning and believe in the idea that we live in a SOCIETY and as such we give and take on that level to make EVERYONES lives better. After all, that's the embodiment of the Constitution isn't it? Not much in there about corporate profits or a race to be a 1%'er.
I think on any given day you'll get support here for exactly those ideas. I was referring generally to folks on the street and in the public at large as far as concern about diving off into a few ugly contenders who know little of what they say, and even littler of how those stupid right wing ideas actually trickle down....ahem.
I know where to go locally to be around people who think like I do, and I know generally that being here is a safe place to chit chat and to kick around ideas every day. I certainly think you'll also find people here who will pick up the sword and shield and fight for what we all know is right. Stick around for awhile and feel it out. I'm glad you feel comfortable here and can relate your sentiments cogently.

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Response to Crutchez_CuiBono (Reply #17)

Sun May 20, 2018, 11:05 AM

21. I appreciate your intelligent response (Thank You)!

 

You said:
"I agree that messages need to be promoted, but, in all candor, most all of us here are of the same mind."

I understand that many who make various puns, slap stick and joke type comments are an affirmation of people of like minds.
Although, my concern is not just for the "long term" and "consistent members"... I write to speak to those who happen upon this site, some come and visit because people share links unto others, and some come looking to embrace democratic ideals and people who support them, and some come with 'undecided minds".

I care about such ones, which is why I address 'Narrative Promotion" far and above "slap stick"... I've shared links to this site and some of the people, who are long term democrats, are not so impressed with the site and state that as being driven by the litany of one liner slap stick, puns and jokes. They want to actually read about 'what the democrats promote", I've tried to get people to join in and talk, but some don't want to deal with what they write being followed by jokes and puns,they want to address substance, how we achieve it, how we promote it, and how we enlighten and how we can entice new people with information and how we can give the undecided something to hold on to. That's a big part of why I address "Narrative". I know, Not everyone is comfortable expressing their thoughts and ideas, and some are simply not inclined to write, even though they are good people who do support democratic ideals and values.

Our media is driven today by Right Wing Republican Narratives.. and mostly what I see is people responding to incessant Right Wing Narratives, rather than promoting "counter narratives that expound upon Democratic Ideals". MANY MANY people know that in America, after 100 yrs of Jim Crow, Race is without a doubt a subject that has to be address and has to be discussed, as does the many elements that identify and depict how and what 'white privilege is", how it came to be, and why it still lingers and in some cases why its overt in America. There are many people who live it, and many people relish it, and many never stops to grasp what it is, or when they are engaging and promoting it. Because that is how they were raised, and the environment they live as well as many have never thought to consider what it is, when they are a participant in its ongoing promotions. It perturbs some to even consider thinking about it, and it even angers some when its discussed as to how it promotes imbalances in society, even when they live it as their common groomed habit.

Equally so, I see too among some black people who have been on the non beneficial end of the effects of white privilege, whom it makes them well aware of its existence in many areas of life, and in some cases, it arouses a defense mechanism when its encountered. For some it is a situation of continual stress to have to deal with navigation around, through and beyond such.

The Democratic has to speak about "union support" and the moving away from the "right to work guidelines", because right to work is with elements in its design to ensure workers have NO VOICE, and with NO VOICE comes LOWER PAY AND MORE MORE STRENUOUS WORK CONDITIONS. In this Era Trump wants to remove various recording of Safety Issue, to ensure there is no documented recourse for injured workers.
There is a multitude of things that a PROMOTED DEMOCRATIC NARRATIVE CAN AND SHOULD PROMOTE INTO THE GENERAL PUBLIC ARENA, AS WELL AS WITHIN THIS WEBSITE.

I've read comments in this forum which convey right leaning democratic ideal which are intermixed with some of the same historical ideological things that was promoted during Jim Crow segregation as to how people were groomed to think, And we also know, there are people who say, they've been life long democrats which indicates they were democrats even during the time of Jim Crow, when Democrats fought against Civil Rights, as well as when Democrats had an adverse stand against any elements of public assistance being utilized by minorities. We have questions to ask ourselves, "how and why did it take the force of law, to get some to stand up and speak up for Equality? That is a very valid question.

Thus so, one has to be aware of what is meant within what is said. They may stand for things like Medicare and Medicaid and various things, but what is their real thoughts on how to see full circle and full depth equality in all things general to society and people. (without, the tinge of historical prejudices that were dominantly spread in this country for the 100 yrs of segregation).
The splintering within the ideals that exist within the party is "Real", it can only come to find cohesion in ideals in full premise by "communication and discussion"... Therefore, the Promotion of Democratic Narratives is critical.

As I said before, I work with people who say they were life long democrats, and they identified with Republican ideas and voted for Trump as well as some support Republican in State Congressional people. So, we should be under no illusion to assume everyone is on the same full ideological pages because they use the word "Democrat".

I personally am not content to be "A responder to Republican controlled Public Narrative". I want to promote Democratic Ideals into the forefront of Public Narrative.

I will continue to push subject matter in this site and any others that I write on, to address subjects, including those that people may not be comfortable with, because fact is... "This is Life"... we get no "do over's"... we have the grace and gift of ability to communicate, and we must embrace it with sincerity to be as effectively proactive for Democracy as we can be. I have a great sense of humor and enjoy laughter, but not as a single dimension default when matters concern our society, our people lives and the Democracy that has been and continues to work to be American Democracy.

I've challenged Republican Right Wing Madness, Bias, Bigotry and Prejudices and Covert Racism through out life, and I've written 10's of thousands of commentary, and in one site garnered nearly 2 million people who've read, and I have challenged the Right Winger with their own maddening concepts, until they can find nothing but silence, because they have no defense for facts that convey truths of fact. So... I'm certainly not one who will be intimidated by anything anyone has to say within this site.

I support and will continue to seek to push for the promotion of "Democratic Narratives"....

Again, Thank you for your intelligent response and the time you invested to share it.

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Response to pscot (Original post)

Sat May 19, 2018, 12:03 PM

8. It seems to be that time of year (Summer) where people tune out of politics.

25% undecided is high.

Perhaps IPSOS' should be downgraded. They had us leading by 10 points a few weeks ago.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #8)

Sat May 19, 2018, 11:40 PM

20. kick

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Response to pscot (Original post)

Sat May 19, 2018, 12:09 PM

9. Those numbers seem counterintuitive when we see Dems outperforming essentially everywhere

I will await more evidence.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #9)

Sat May 19, 2018, 12:20 PM

10. intuition is great

but don't ignore the data. Remember 2016.

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Response to pscot (Reply #10)

Sat May 19, 2018, 12:22 PM

11. The data showed Clinton coasting to an easy win.

In that instance the data confirmed our/my intuition. In this instance they are misaligned.


A 1% deficit in the generic ballot is not consistent with Democratic candidates running so much better in 2018 than 2016.

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Response to pscot (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2018, 01:56 PM

22. The corporate media is being bought. That is Guiliani's job.

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