Dems Are Primed to Win Big, Reclaim the House, & Save Our Democracy. Here's How They Could Blow It

[DonViejo]

PRAGMATISM AS MORAL IMPERATIVE

Democrats Are Primed to Win Big, Reclaim the House, and Save Our Democracy. Here’s How They Could Blow It.

This election will either legitimize Trump’s rule or upend it. There’s no time or money to waste on divisive primaries or contests far removed from competitive House seats.

JONATHAN ALTER
04.23.18 4:57 AM ET

GOP Rep. Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania announced this month that he was resigning from Congress and told Republicans: “Big wave coming—get off the beach.”

Dent is probably right. A little more than six months before the midterms, predictive models point to Democrats winning control of the House of Representatives. A strong history of pick-ups by the party out of the White House, disgust with President Trump, good results in special elections, 46 Republican retirements (compared to 20 Democrats), and an energized Democratic base all augur well.

The question isn’t whether the odds favor flipping the House, but whether Democrats should bank on it. And the answer—for anyone who cares about protecting American democracy—is an obvious no.

Six months is a lifetime in politics. Trump’s popularity won’t recover by fall, but a deal with North Korea and a couple of other breaks could shift the momentum just enough to protect vulnerable Republican seats. And the recent history of midterms strongly favors Republicans, who took the House in 2010. In 2014, turnout fell to 37 percent, the lowest in 70 years, with the steepest falloff among Democrats.

Most Democrats get it; they’re focused and girded for battle, with a bumper crop of young and exciting candidates, including a record number of women. But too many others wring their hands watching cable news without educating themselves about which seats in their states are in play and what they can do to flip them. And a remnant of lefties are still living in Jill Steinland—acting as if the midterms are in the bag and they can indulge in expensive primary fights over minor policy differences that drain resources from the constitutionally critical task at hand.

Are Democrats in danger of once again forming a circular firing squad? The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is so worried that it’s pressuring weaker candidates in some districts to drop out in favor of well-funded moderates with a better chance of winning in November. California, where a half dozen seats are flippable (one quarter of those needed to gain control), is a particular concern because the state’s “top two” primary system means a large field of Democrats could split the vote and leave two Republicans running against each other in the general election.

more
https://www.thedailybeast.com/democrats-are-primed-to-win-big-reclaim-the-house-and-save-our-democracy-heres-how-they-could-blow-it?ref=home

[Iliyah]

1. Expect articles like this, many of them, the closer it gets to

November 2018.

[DonViejo]

3. It's an excellent opinion/analysis. I hope you took the time to read the entire article. eom

[Blue_Tires]

15. Am I the only one who wonders why writers of all political stripes

seem to have no interest whatsoever in the goings-on at the RNC? Why do we get hatred from the right and merciless scrutiny from the left while everyone turns a blind eye to the GOP fundraising apparatus and how THEY do their primaries??

[Iliyah]

5. Yes I have and my response remains the same.

[Blue_Tires]

14. +1

The closer we get to victory, the faster and harder these smear pieces against the DNC/DCCC will come from the usual concern trolls/useful idiots on the left...

[dalton99a]

2. People who help Republicans win are not Democrats.

[beachbum bob]

4. we have the momentum that will not go away, as for California, they made their election process

suck big time and some how democrats HAVE to find a way to limit those running for obvious reasons

[nolabels]

9. It's called a PRIMARY

In the last election, what other state had two women from the same party running for the Senate in the general?

[beachbum bob]

12. the 2 top finishers shouldn;t not be the rule..its the top democrat vs the top republican and why

we can shoot ourselves in the foot with this idiot system in California

[nolabels]

13. It should be the rule if it is voted in by the voters

There is a very in-depth article at the link below but hear this

3) A functional legislature. California is no longer a national symbol for legislative dysfunction. Members of the legislature, who must now be elected by building diverse coalitions of voters rather than toeing the party line, head to Sacramento incentivized to continue similar outreach while in office.

We believe that the rapid and transformative impact of Top Two in California can serve as a blueprint for others looking to reduce legislative dysfunction and voter disengagement.

(snip)
In 2003, California voters revolted. In that year, Governor Gray Davis was recalled. He was replaced by the iconoclastic and nonpartisan Arnold Schwarzenegger. A broad left/right reform coalition evolved to eliminate the structural partisanship built into the electoral system. This coalition remade California politics by creating a nonpartisan and fully independent redistricting commission and enacting a nonpartisan Top Two primary.[6]

The Top Two Nonpartisan Primary coalition included independent voter associations, business leaders, the AARP, Chamber of Commerce, Common Cause, issue advocacy organizations, philanthropists and reform-minded elected officials—most notably State Controller Steve Westly, Governor Schwarzenegger, Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado, and former Assemblyman Steve Peace. These disparate forces came together to bring a constitutionally sound open primary system back to California. They recruited nationally known constitutional scholars and election law experts, studied the Supreme Court’s decision, and drafted a new open primary initiative to meet the Court’s specific tests.

In 2010, despite being opposed by every political party in California, the California Top Two Primaries Act (Proposition 14) passed with 54% of the vote.[7] The state has used the system to conduct all statewide and congressional elections since 2012.

https://www.openprimaries.org/research_california

[Blue_Adept]

6. And there's nothing the rank and file voters can do about it

If they blow it, they blow it. There's little in the way of pressures that can be applied by the voting constituency when it comes to some, or most, of these things. Swap out Democrats for any baseball team and its fans with the world series coming up. The big pressures come from elsewhere but in the end it's still the candidate themselves.

[Ninga]

7. Excellent article. Alter writes more politely than I would. It's the purity vote, stupid.

1. When Democrats vote, Democrats win.

2. Except, Democrats don't show up, and the GOP works their ass off to threaten and lie their voters to the polls.

I'm frustrated.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. Crafting a narrative for the status quo

"Well funded moderates" = business as usual corporate NeoLiberals.

Why not have a conversation re: " well funded progressives"?

I get the situation in California is sensitive strategically, but surely the party could do some research now, and if there's a progressive with name recognition and positive support in the polls, the party could throw all their support to that candidate?

I want to see Nunes and Rorabacher defeated as much as anyone, but not at the cost of someone who will refuse to consider impeachment when the time comes, or will not support the most marginalized in society.

[nolabels]

10. There is many a politically ticked-off persons in California

I would most fear the rest of the states being able to keep up with us

[Orsino]

11. Citizens United remains in place.

Effectively unlimited and easy money is waiting to buy any Dems who lack the courage to decline it. We've seen what that drug can make Republicans do; please don't think that Democrats can't be distracted by it.