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Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 09:59 AM Apr 2018

Look for a stunner out of Arizona on Tuesday.

Last edited Tue Apr 17, 2018, 11:18 AM - Edit history (2)

I have read media reports on her positions and feel that she is a well spoken, organized candidate and is speaking directly to the people of her district.

I get a strong feeling that the democrat, Hiral Tipirneni is going to win the special election for the Az 8 House seat. She just has a sounder message than Lesko has.

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asiliveandbreathe

(8,203 posts)
1. Please change the day Thursday to - special general election for Tuesday, April 24, 2018
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 10:07 AM
Apr 2018

Those of us in AZ. especially teachers, of whom I have two in the district, would really like to have this info corrected as well///IT IS NOT THURSDAY - it is special general election - Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Thanks in advance BT

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
2. Fingers crossed. New poll has Hiral Tipirneni ahead 46-45,
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 10:30 AM
Apr 2018

but that is contradicted by early-vote counts.

Nevertheless, the GOP is scared and pumping new money like crazy into this race. After PA's special election failed to break their run of special election losses, as they'd once expected, the GOP reportedly viewed this race in AZ as their new fire wall. And now this poll after their Repub had been leading by double digits.

We're hoping to hand them their asses, of course, but if a Democrat in this deeply red district loses by single digits, they'll have also lost to a very real degree. They badly need a huge, symbolic victory, not one that proves their voter support is still falling away.

NYMag: Arizona’s eighth, comprised of conservative suburbs to the north and west of Phoenix, went for Trump in 2016 by a 21 percent margin, compared to Pennsylvania’s 18th district’s 20 points. Its Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index is R+13 (13 points more Republican than the national average); the 18th was R+11.

And there’s one respect in which the Arizona district is significantly less open to a Democratic candidate than was the district won by Conor Lamb: Republicans have a 17-point advantage in party registration in Arizona’s eighth, while Democrats held a 6-point advantage in the Pennsylvania district.


VOX: On April 24, Republican Debbie Lesko and Democrat Hiral Tipirneni will face off in the special election for Frank’s House seat. By every measure, Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District is considered to be safe Republican territory. It encompasses the suburbs north and west of Phoenix in Maricopa County — the stomping grounds of infamous former Sheriff Joe Arpaio and home to the reliably conservative Sun City retirement community. Trump won the district by 21 points. ...

The question most election observers are zeroing in on isn’t necessarily if Lesko is going to lose — she has a comfortable double-digit lead in the few polls and has some structural advantages — but whether Democrats can narrow the margin by which Trump and Franks won. And that alone is worrying the GOP.

“The question isn’t if the GOP will retain the seat, but how much does Lesko win by?” Mike Noble, a Republican pollster in the state, told the Guardian.




 

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)
3. 20% more republicans registered in that district, to win, a democrat needs
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 10:31 AM
Apr 2018

outstanding get out the vote effort and suppressed republican vote

not impossible but no indication she can win at this point except hope and prayers

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
6. She realizes that she will need republican votes trying to talk republicans that will listen.
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 11:30 AM
Apr 2018

From what I understand, she is running a local race focused on local issues. The issue with teachers may help her, as will Hispanics in the district getting registered to vote. One of the issues that I have seen mentioned about Arizona is that Hispanics there have a pretty poor voting record, if they are registered and show up, the big republican old registration advantage gets whittled down and it boils down to convincing a few republicans that are turned off by their party.

BobTheSubgenius

(11,535 posts)
8. At ths time, it's so difficult for me to believe...
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 12:51 PM
Apr 2018

...that a Republican can garner a significant number of votes, let alone win.

caballojm

(270 posts)
9. My wife and I live in the district and have already for Tipirneni.
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 12:56 PM
Apr 2018

We're hoping but skeptical. We are in the district after all that kept electing that creep show Trent Franks over and over and over and over. Sun City voters are problematic. They'd blindly vote for a steaming sack of manure as long as it ran with an R after its name.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
10. What areas are in the district.
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 01:35 PM
Apr 2018

From business, I am familiar with Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Tempe, Phoenix and a little of Mesa. But seldom went north of Phoenix for much.

caballojm

(270 posts)
11. You're familiar with the east side of the Valley then.
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 01:56 PM
Apr 2018

The 8th district covers the west (mostly northwest) part (Peoria, Sun City, Surprise, New River). LOTS of retirees and people who might not be so evolved on racial matters - reflexive R voters. I'm sure Fox Newz reigns supreme here. That's not to suggest everyone is like that, but we are outnumbered.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
12. Thanks. I did not know that I go to the east side really.
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 02:04 PM
Apr 2018

Sort of fun to find that out. I am such a clutz with directions anyway. I am guessing that the west side is toward the Superstition Mountain (can see that from parts of the east, I think, at least I did).

caballojm

(270 posts)
13. Oh no, the Superstitions are even farther east (much farther)!
Tue Apr 17, 2018, 02:22 PM
Apr 2018

You'll find the White Tanks and North Mountain on the west side.

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