General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsLook for a stunner out of Arizona on Tuesday.
Last edited Tue Apr 17, 2018, 10:18 AM - Edit history (2)
I have read media reports on her positions and feel that she is a well spoken, organized candidate and is speaking directly to the people of her district.
I get a strong feeling that the democrat, Hiral Tipirneni is going to win the special election for the Az 8 House seat. She just has a sounder message than Lesko has.

asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)Those of us in AZ. especially teachers, of whom I have two in the district, would really like to have this info corrected as well///IT IS NOT THURSDAY - it is special general election - Tuesday, April 24, 2018
Thanks in advance BT
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)but that is contradicted by early-vote counts.
Nevertheless, the GOP is scared and pumping new money like crazy into this race. After PA's special election failed to break their run of special election losses, as they'd once expected, the GOP reportedly viewed this race in AZ as their new fire wall. And now this poll after their Repub had been leading by double digits.
We're hoping to hand them their asses, of course, but if a Democrat in this deeply red district loses by single digits, they'll have also lost to a very real degree. They badly need a huge, symbolic victory, not one that proves their voter support is still falling away.
And theres one respect in which the Arizona district is significantly less open to a Democratic candidate than was the district won by Conor Lamb: Republicans have a 17-point advantage in party registration in Arizonas eighth, while Democrats held a 6-point advantage in the Pennsylvania district.
The question most election observers are zeroing in on isnt necessarily if Lesko is going to lose she has a comfortable double-digit lead in the few polls and has some structural advantages but whether Democrats can narrow the margin by which Trump and Franks won. And that alone is worrying the GOP.
The question isnt if the GOP will retain the seat, but how much does Lesko win by? Mike Noble, a Republican pollster in the state, told the Guardian.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)outstanding get out the vote effort and suppressed republican vote
not impossible but no indication she can win at this point except hope and prayers
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)From what I understand, she is running a local race focused on local issues. The issue with teachers may help her, as will Hispanics in the district getting registered to vote. One of the issues that I have seen mentioned about Arizona is that Hispanics there have a pretty poor voting record, if they are registered and show up, the big republican old registration advantage gets whittled down and it boils down to convincing a few republicans that are turned off by their party.
Yes, Arpaios old territory, but remember that Arpaio lost his race against a democrat.
argyl
(3,064 posts)BobTheSubgenius
(11,847 posts)...that a Republican can garner a significant number of votes, let alone win.
caballojm
(281 posts)We're hoping but skeptical. We are in the district after all that kept electing that creep show Trent Franks over and over and over and over. Sun City voters are problematic. They'd blindly vote for a steaming sack of manure as long as it ran with an R after its name.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)From business, I am familiar with Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Tempe, Phoenix and a little of Mesa. But seldom went north of Phoenix for much.
caballojm
(281 posts)The 8th district covers the west (mostly northwest) part (Peoria, Sun City, Surprise, New River). LOTS of retirees and people who might not be so evolved on racial matters - reflexive R voters. I'm sure Fox Newz reigns supreme here. That's not to suggest everyone is like that, but we are outnumbered.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Sort of fun to find that out. I am such a clutz with directions anyway. I am guessing that the west side is toward the Superstition Mountain (can see that from parts of the east, I think, at least I did).
caballojm
(281 posts)You'll find the White Tanks and North Mountain on the west side.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Good luck Next Tuesday. I will contribute later today via ActBlue for the stretch run.