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Mon Apr 9, 2018, 01:05 PM

Ready for Some Good News?

"Nationwide, whites over the age of 60 with college degrees now favor Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a 2-point margin, according to Reuters/Ipsos opinion polling during the first three months of the year. During the same period in 2016, that same group favored Republicans for Congress by 10 percentage points."

These are the voters--be they Dems, Republicans, Indies--that we should welcome with open arms because they have seen the light and are willing to boot the crooks and traitors out of office, out of the body politic.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-healthcare-poll/exclusive-as-elections-near-many-older-educated-white-voters-shift-away-from-trumps-party-idUSKBN1HG1I6

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Arrow 20 replies Author Time Post
Reply Ready for Some Good News? (Original post)
peggysue2 Apr 2018 OP
magicarpet Apr 2018 #1
peggysue2 Apr 2018 #4
Hulk Apr 2018 #15
BSdetect Apr 2018 #2
peggysue2 Apr 2018 #3
LuvLoogie Apr 2018 #9
BumRushDaShow Apr 2018 #5
peggysue2 Apr 2018 #7
BumRushDaShow Apr 2018 #11
peggysue2 Apr 2018 #13
BumRushDaShow Apr 2018 #19
Orsino Apr 2018 #10
question everything Apr 2018 #6
peggysue2 Apr 2018 #8
sandensea Apr 2018 #12
peggysue2 Apr 2018 #16
sandensea Apr 2018 #18
Hulk Apr 2018 #14
peggysue2 Apr 2018 #17
KY_EnviroGuy Apr 2018 #20

Response to peggysue2 (Original post)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 01:22 PM

1. We need every vote we can muster....

The 2018 election will be meddled with from one billion directions at once. Rethugs, tRdump, the data guru in Texas, Cambridge Anylitica, the Koch Bros, the Mercers, Putin's Oligarch goons etc. etc.... took the reins of power - are enjoying the results of having stolen/captured our government - and will put up a hellacious fight to retain the levers of power. Many more ideas to feather the nests and grease the skids of the filthy rich 1%.

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Response to magicarpet (Reply #1)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 01:43 PM

4. Yes, 1000x

Any and every vote for a Democratic Congress is important and should be welcomed. We can pickup our political differences once we rid the country of the infestation of political traitors and enablers and mafia wanna-be's.

Every vote counts; it is all about the numbers.

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Response to magicarpet (Reply #1)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 03:20 PM

15. And Democratic politicians had better not fook this up..

Stay true to the progressive goals, or vote them out in the following election and put someone in who will.

And KEEP THEIR NOSES CLEAN WHILE IN OFFICE! Can't change what happened in the past...but better be squeaky clean while in office of the repuKKKe police will "koch them out", and stick some "saintly repuKKKe con artist" in their seat. The fuckers mean business...and they aren't going to go away; not with all that Citizens United dark money ready to spend against us.

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Response to peggysue2 (Original post)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 01:24 PM

2. That really does not say much for college education in the USA. A mere 2 friggin points?

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Response to BSdetect (Reply #2)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 01:38 PM

3. That's for the first 3 months of the year

I suspect that % will grow as the Trumpster's chaos operation and missteps continue. It is difficult to understand how any educated individual didn't see through the Trumpster and his con job on the country during the primary and GE. I'd put it down to over-the-top tribalism--he's the Republican candidate, so I must vote Republican--and/or the smear job effectiveness against Hillary Clinton. With a little help from foreign partners

Whatever the reason, I think we should celebrate the fact that critical thinking skills are clicking back in as the Trumpster reveals himself, again and again, as the Great Pretender and Ruin-a-tor. For the time being, the vote count in November is the only thing that matters. So I say welcome aboard to The Fight of Our Lifetimes.

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Response to peggysue2 (Reply #3)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 01:57 PM

9. I think the only thing clicking in is their tax cuts,

and their endangered 401Ks.

They got theirs, now they want to keep it.

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Response to BSdetect (Reply #2)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 01:46 PM

5. It was a 12 point swing

from +10 favoring GOP to +2 favoring DEM.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #5)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 01:49 PM

7. Even better!

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Response to peggysue2 (Reply #7)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 02:30 PM

11. To get a better picture



In the 2016 election, a wide gap in presidential preferences emerged between those with and without a college degree. College graduates backed Clinton by a 9-point margin (52%-43%), while those without a college degree backed Trump 52%-44%. This is by far the widest gap in support among college graduates and non-college graduates in exit polls dating back to 1980. For example, in 2012, there was hardly any difference between the two groups: College graduates backed Obama over Romney by 50%-48%, and those without a college degree also supported Obama 51%-47%.

Among whites, Trump won an overwhelming share of those without a college degree; and among white college graduates – a group that many identified as key for a potential Clinton victory – Trump outperformed Clinton by a narrow 4-point margin.

Trump’s margin among whites without a college degree is the largest among any candidate in exit polls since 1980. Two-thirds (67%) of non-college whites backed Trump, compared with just 28% who supported Clinton, resulting in a 39-point advantage for Trump among this group. In 2012 and 2008, non-college whites also preferred the Republican over the Democratic candidate but by less one-sided margins (61%-36% and 58%-40%, respectively).

Trump won whites with a college degree 49% to 45%. In 2012, Romney won college whites by a somewhat wider margin in 2012 (56%-42%). Trump’s advantage among this group is the same as John McCain’s margin in 2008 (51%-47%).

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/


So since the above is assuming all ages, you can see how the 60+ age group, being +10 GOP, appears to have skewed the total "white college-educated" average up to that +4 GOP.

So back of the envelope math would suggest that < 60 white college-educated group may have actually been -2 GOP (i.e., +2 DEM) so that the +10 from the > 60 group would average with them to get the above's +4 GOP.

So if that 60+ group (alone) is now +2, that means the "all ages" white-college educated group could potentially be +4 (assuming the under 60 crowd is still holding for Democrats).

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #11)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 02:57 PM

13. Thanks for that, BumRush

I think we have a very good shot here. In fact, yesterday I read an article by a Republican pollster, a clarion cry of sorts--actually I think it might have been Luntz--indicating that GOP was in very deep electoral trouble. The Republican leadership certainly knows this, which means voting shenanigans will be pushed to the max. in November. The hijinks work in close elections but are far less effective in blowouts. And thus, every vote counts from every quarter we can massage and message with the stark truth facing us: the Trumpster was the biggest political con perpetrated on the American public and we need to right the battered ship of state, sooner rather than later.

Thanks for the math analyses and putting the info into perspective.

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Response to peggysue2 (Reply #13)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 04:04 PM

19. It's funny you mention Luntz

because I saw the thread about the Faux Snooze graphic boo boo and that is where the OP article links to the video from Luntz's appearance during the boo boo, with the subject of his interview was his sounding the alarm to the GOP about the midterms!

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210465435

Regarding a potential shift of that demo, it would be unprecedented, at least looking over the past (at least) 60 years. I dug around and found this - it "almost" happened (and was predicted to happen by 538 but didn't happen sadly, but was close) -

FiveThirtyEight

Jul. 6, 2016 at 12:34 PM
Trump May Become The First Republican In 60 Years To Lose White College Graduates

By Harry Enten

Donald Trump does really well among white voters without a college degree. Indeed, he is on track to carry that group by a wider margin than Mitt Romney did over President Obama four years ago. But there’s another side to that coin: While Trump is outperforming your run-of-the-mill Republican among whites without a college degree, he’s underperforming among white voters with a college degree. In fact, he is on a track to lose white college graduates.

<...>

At first glance, it shouldn’t be too surprising that Trump faces a deficit with whites with a college degree. He struggled with them tremendously compared to whites without a college degree during the GOP primary season, and you can easily imagine how his nativist appeals have less resonance among those who have more education.

On the other hand, Trump’s performance is downright shocking from a historical perspective. Romney won whites with a college degree by 6 percentage points over Obama, according to the American National Elections Studies. In fact, the American National Elections Studies shows Republicans carrying that group in every election from 1956 to 2012.(1)



What makes this year’s turn of events even more interesting is how Hillary Clinton is doing this well among whites with a college degree even as she isn’t blowing Trump out. Lyndon Johnson couldn’t carry whites with a college degree in 1964 when he was defeating Barry Goldwater by 23 percentage points overall. That is, there has been a big leftward shift among white voters with a college degree without the rest of the electorate following along.

<...>

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-may-become-the-first-republican-in-60-years-to-lose-white-college-graduates/


What actually shows this too is this -

Change and Continuity Among White Voters With No College Degrees
Juhem Navarro-Rivera,
09.27.2012

<...>

However, in 1980, white voters with no college degrees accounted for 7-in-10 (70%) of the GOP vote, and nearly two-thirds (66%) of voters overall. In 2008, they represented half (50%) of the GOP vote, and only around 4-in-10 (39%) voters overall.

What accounts for this striking decline? The number of white voters with no college degree, once one of the most influential voting blocs in America, has been shrinking as a share of the electorate as the result of two important demographic shifts. The first is increasing education rates among whites. In 1980, just over one-quarter (28%) of white voters had a 4-year college degree. By 2008, nearly half (47%) had a 4-year college degree. The second demographic force is the racial diversification of the electorate. In 1980, just 1-in-10 (11%) voters were non-whites. By 2008, racial and ethnic minorities accounted for over one-quarter (26%) of all voters.

Non-white voters overwhelmingly favor Democratic candidates, while over the past fifteen years, white college-educated voters have shifted away from the GOP. These two changes have forced the GOP to increasingly rely on white voters with no college degrees. Figure 2 shows that while white voters with no college degrees have always been overrepresented as a share of GOP voters, a pattern that has only increased since 1996.



In 1996, when white voters with no college degrees comprised nearly half (46%) of the population, nearly half (49%) of votes for the GOP also came from white voters with no college degrees. By 2008, however, when white voters with no college degrees represented a substantially smaller slice of the electorate (39%), the GOP continued to receive half (50%) of its votes from this dwindling population.

<...>

https://www.prri.org/spotlight/change-and-continuity-among-white-voters-with-no-college-degrees/


So what is happening, which is fascinating, is that the white college graduate percentage is growing and the white non-college graduate is shrinking, and as that happens over time, the overall white voter population voting less and less for the GOP.... WHICH IS GOOD. As they are getting more educated, they are slowly unlocking their minds, which have been exposed to a bit more diversity.

Of course knowing this (although we assumed they didn't but it's obvious now that they do), this is part of the reason why all the draconian measures that the GOP is using to solidify power with their ever-shrinking demographics by gerrymandering, Voter ID laws, and now outright influencing a subset of voters with fake news and hacking the vote.

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Response to BSdetect (Reply #2)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 02:27 PM

10. Compared to Trump's margin of "victory"? That's substantial.

I think we're headed for yet another season of Democratic wins, thanks to Trump being Trump and the hilariously terrible Republican overreach.

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Response to peggysue2 (Original post)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 01:46 PM

6. Still hope for all the baby boomers who were active against Vietnam? Active for Civil Rights?

Questioned government?


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Response to question everything (Reply #6)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 01:51 PM

8. Yes!

I'm part of that demographic. Time to get off the couch, roll up our sleeves and do what came natural 40 years ago.

Makes you feel younger, too

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Response to peggysue2 (Original post)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 02:54 PM

12. Good. How anyone with an education, after the Bush calamity, can still vote GOP is beyond me.

That's irrespective of race, creed, or any other consideration.

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Response to sandensea (Reply #12)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 03:20 PM

16. I know

It's pretty mind-blowing after the Iraq debacle and the economic/housing collapse in 2007-2008 that anyone could give these suckers a 2nd chance. Not to mention the complete obstructionism during President Obama's tenure.

And then, there's the Trumpster. Come on!

I read a twitter thread this morning written by a self-proclaimed conservative, begging the Democratic Party to open the gates and welcome Republican crossover voters. He also said that he and his conservative colleagues recognize the GOP is irredeemable, that a complete burn down and rebuild is required and that a strong Democratic win in 2018 and 2020 is crucial for the country's security and health.

I think the message is, the inkling I've been getting recently from websites and twitter feeds is that it's not just Dems looking at this WH and cabal in absolute horror. Yes, the GOP inited this viper in but it's going to take all of us to stomp him hard and eventually fumigate the building.

But how people fell for this crap in the first place? A lot of tribalism and propaganda and critical thinking caps removed. My brother-in-law and his wife voted for Trump, both college educated but hard core Republicans. They think I'm a Commie when. in fact, I'm a liberal. My brother-in-law isn't really talking to my husband right now because of other matters but I would be curious to find out his opinion now. In the light of day

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Response to peggysue2 (Reply #16)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 03:31 PM

18. Well said. Republican crossover voters are ALWAYS welcome here.

We have more in common with the 'respectable' Republican Party they and their parents came to know in the '50s and '60s than many of them probably realize.

Certainly more than today's radicalized, medieval GOP does.

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Response to peggysue2 (Original post)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 03:14 PM

14. ...and as we die off, I'm guessing..

..our demographic will swing further to the progressive side.

Non-scientific of course, and no statistical data to back up my assumption; but ALL of my older siblings, who happen to be 76 yrs+, had no college degree. ALL of them are staunch dRumpf supporters and tune in to fox propaganda network faithfully all day long.

Many of their friends, who happen to have gotten a college degree, are also terrified that Obama is coming to take their guns, people of color are raping their grand daughters and great grand daughters, and illegals are flowing over the southern border with bales of marijuana strapped to their backs and bags of cocaine down their pant legs to invade their locked communities and yes...rape their daughters, grand daughters and great grand daughters.

They are dying off. Good riddance. There is no hope of redemption for these frightened fools.

So yes...as we die off and age moves forward, the entire demographic will shift in their political and social beliefs. Not a huge surprise to me.

dRumpf and the repuKKKes are in serious trouble in the near future. Now if we can affect the evangelical cabal with some serious education and facts, there may be hope yet for this sinking nation.

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Response to Hulk (Reply #14)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 03:28 PM

17. Think you're right

The future is coming whether people like it or not. Young David Hogg said it succinctly: We Will Outlive You.

And, of course, they will.

It's the reason we need to preserve the present, the country, our democratic institutions. Our kids and grand babies deserve a future they can build on, not a ravaged shack.

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Response to peggysue2 (Original post)

Mon Apr 9, 2018, 04:16 PM

20. One point to keep in mind....

With voters "over the age of 60 with college degrees" is that we have influence over many other voters (kids, grandkids, co-workers, fellow retirees, etc.) and that our demographic in general garners a degree of respect - so hopefully people will listen to us. So, it's well worth the effort to nurture good relationships with this group.

In the past, Republicans have done a masterful job of looking at each demographic and designing an attack plan tailored for each - with a unique set of fears and "loves" for each one they attempt to control. And, their grand plan of dumbing-down our country continues every day. We must reverse that horrible process.

....

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