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Wed Mar 14, 2018, 11:43 AM

Did Trump create even a little Repub bump in either Alabama or PA 18?

I don't remember Alabama, but Lamb won by less than Monmouth suggested. To what do we attribute that? I'm sure Trump never changes any minds, but does he boost energy among the deplorable base enough to gain a couple of percentage points?

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Reply Did Trump create even a little Repub bump in either Alabama or PA 18? (Original post)
LAS14 Mar 2018 OP
Girard442 Mar 2018 #1
YessirAtsaFact Mar 2018 #2
Wounded Bear Mar 2018 #3
LAS14 Mar 2018 #4
poboy2 Mar 2018 #8
workinclasszero Mar 2018 #9
onenote Mar 2018 #5
Freethinker65 Mar 2018 #6
ProfessorGAC Mar 2018 #7

Response to LAS14 (Original post)

Wed Mar 14, 2018, 11:45 AM

1. More like a crater.

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Response to LAS14 (Original post)

Wed Mar 14, 2018, 11:48 AM

2. Stormy Daniels said Trump has just a little repub bump

In his pants.

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Response to LAS14 (Original post)

Wed Mar 14, 2018, 11:49 AM

3. Perhaps he did...

but he's starting from a hole, so it obviously wasn't enough.

The wave coming in seems to be of the 10-12% range, which would flip dozens of House races nationwide.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 14, 2018, 11:52 AM

4. Little hands.... little bump....little.... (Wish I tweeted). nt

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Response to LAS14 (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 14, 2018, 12:11 PM

8. 'liddle' -nt

 

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 14, 2018, 12:12 PM

9. We only need 24 to control the House

I bet the dems pick up way more than that in the fall.

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Response to LAS14 (Original post)

Wed Mar 14, 2018, 11:57 AM

5. Impossible to say

The Monmouth poll showed a 51-46 edge for Lamb, meaning there were a lot of undecided.
The poll had a 5.1 margin of error, which meant it really wasn't a five point margin. And that was based on higher than normal mid-term election turnout. But, overall, turnout in the special election was below the 2010 mid-term election turnout in that district.

And polls taken before the election showed a 49-49 split on Trump approval/disapproval, which should have caused folks to pause before assuming Lamb had it in the bag.

Trump having only 49 percent approval in a district he won by 20 obviously was huge factor. Did his campaigning help? Probably a little.

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Response to LAS14 (Original post)

Wed Mar 14, 2018, 11:58 AM

6. Nope

I think the obscene amount of money the Republican donors had to waste on these races so that they did not get decidedly trounced by Trump's toxicity made the races closer than they should have been.

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Response to LAS14 (Original post)

Wed Mar 14, 2018, 12:09 PM

7. I Think There's Another Comparison

First, in another thread, i got chippy with another poster over the libertarian vote. My bad on that, but remember that over 1,300 votes went that way. Doubtful Monmouth got that number dead on with a 5% MOE.

Second, remember that the idiot won that district by a ton in 2016. Closing the statistical margin or error is hardly a bump when an over 20% absolute swing between going for an R or a D happened in 16 months.

It's really very bad for that crowd to go from having a POTUS candidate win by >20% to now elect a D rep in that amount of time, statistical prediction notwithstanding.

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