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Fri Mar 9, 2018, 10:08 AM

"Mueller is playing poker with a whole extra deck stuffed up his sleeve"


By protothad



I had a conversation the other day with an old friend who does consulting for the intelligence community. He wouldn't admit to working on the Trump/Russia investigation, but I know he works with people who are working on it, and he has worked on investigations of a similar type and scale. He does data analysis, sifting through large amounts of evidence to prepare reports for investigating agents and sometimes even providing expert testimony in court. The most I could get him to say about what he was working on was, "you know that even if I was working on the Mueller thing, I could never admit it, right?"

Nevertheless, he was willing to talk about the nature of investigations in the abstract. He was actually rather animated on the topic, once I poured a few beers down him.

The thing that really got him going was when I mentioned how Trump supporters were describing Mueller's indictments as a bunch of 'nothing-burgers' or saying that there must be no evidence of collusion if he hasn't dropped the hammer after all this time. He actually laughed out loud at that.

"They had evidence of collusion from day one," he insisted, "now it's all about seeing how high up the chain the corruption goes." He says our intelligence services have evidence of collusion with Russians by members of the Trump campaign, mostly in the form of SIGINT (signal intelligence, i.e. foreign wire taps). It was that SIGINT, both by our intel agencies and by our allies, that caused the investigation to kick off in the first place. What has leaked to the press, he says, would only be the tip of the iceberg. The most damning stuff has been kept secret to protect sources and methods. But the Mueller indictments actually hint that evidence runs much deeper than what has been publicly revealed so far.


This is how my friend described it:
“Mueller is playing poker with a whole extra deck stuffed up his sleeve. He has the entire US intelligence apparatus at his disposal. When he calls someone in for an interview, he often already has something on them, something he knows they will lie about. Then when they lie, he has them... they've perjured themselves, and he has the documents or SIGINT to prove it. They have to flip and become a cooperating witness, otherwise they go down for the lie as well as the thing they lied about."


And that, my friend surmises, is why some of these guilty pleas seem like such weak tea... they cut a deal to avoid going down for something worse. Mueller gets a cooperating witness that provides new evidence while also holding off on the bigger charges that would reveal too much about what he knows. The new evidence he collects can then be used to lay similar traps for even bigger fish, working his way up the chain. "It's a classic RICO style investigation," he insisted. As for the slow pace of things... "This thing is actually moving pretty fast compared to others I've seen. Conspiracy cases can often drag on for years."



https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/9/1747708/--Mueller-is-playing-poker-with-a-whole-extra-deck-stuffed-up-his-sleeve

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Reply "Mueller is playing poker with a whole extra deck stuffed up his sleeve" (Original post)
kpete Mar 2018 OP
poboy2 Mar 2018 #1
NewJeffCT Mar 2018 #2
CrispyQ Mar 2018 #14
lagomorph777 Mar 2018 #17
hvn_nbr_2 Mar 2018 #30
marylandblue Mar 2018 #3
lagomorph777 Mar 2018 #18
sarcasmo Mar 2018 #4
highmindedhavi Mar 2018 #5
Qutzupalotl Mar 2018 #8
mac56 Mar 2018 #9
LastLiberal in PalmSprings Mar 2018 #39
gulliver Mar 2018 #55
lagomorph777 Mar 2018 #19
YessirAtsaFact Mar 2018 #29
Stuart G Mar 2018 #41
C Moon Mar 2018 #47
True Blue American Mar 2018 #51
PunksMom Mar 2018 #52
Skittles Mar 2018 #35
C Moon Mar 2018 #48
erronis Mar 2018 #36
dalton99a Mar 2018 #6
leftynyc Mar 2018 #7
dchill Mar 2018 #31
not fooled Mar 2018 #10
poboy2 Mar 2018 #13
kpete Mar 2018 #15
lagomorph777 Mar 2018 #20
lunatica Mar 2018 #23
lagomorph777 Mar 2018 #24
lunatica Mar 2018 #27
lagomorph777 Mar 2018 #33
lunatica Mar 2018 #50
lagomorph777 Mar 2018 #56
lunatica Mar 2018 #58
Sophia4 Mar 2018 #26
thbobby Mar 2018 #49
iluvtennis Mar 2018 #11
CrispyQ Mar 2018 #12
lagomorph777 Mar 2018 #21
Stonepounder Mar 2018 #22
CCExile Mar 2018 #16
FakeNoose Mar 2018 #25
BSdetect Mar 2018 #28
bdamomma Mar 2018 #32
Awsi Dooger Mar 2018 #34
dhol82 Mar 2018 #43
smirkymonkey Mar 2018 #37
LiberalFighter Mar 2018 #38
BigmanPigman Mar 2018 #45
Stuart G Mar 2018 #40
dhol82 Mar 2018 #42
shanny Mar 2018 #54
Stuart G Mar 2018 #44
BigmanPigman Mar 2018 #46
avebury Mar 2018 #53
Adrahil Mar 2018 #57

Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 10:18 AM

1. May the spirit of American democracy be with you, sir. -nt

 

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 10:23 AM

2. I am hoping your friend is right

I'm just afraid that if the investigation moves too quickly and the big stuff comes out over the summer, the Republicans in Congress will sit on it and do nothing more than issue a few sternly worded statements and tweets. Then, they'll count on big money from Russia via the NRA and the Koch Brothers to help them hold the senate and keep House losses to a minimum.

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:04 PM

14. My non-political friends have put all their eggs in the Mueller basket.

They have a bad case of "it can't happen here" syndrome.

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:12 PM

17. If "the big stuff comes out over the summer" that's perfect timing for the election.

Voters will have a chance to ponder whether they want to learn Russian, or prefer to make America America again.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #17)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 01:27 PM

30. MAAA - Make America America Again.

Great line. Thanks.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 10:33 AM

3. This is.something you can surmise from news reports

We have heard of wire taps on the Russia ambassador's phone, getting Putin on tape, phone calls involving Flynn, and FISA warrants. That's a lot of SIGINT right there, and you can assume that they have 20X that still top secret.

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Response to marylandblue (Reply #3)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:13 PM

18. Also we've read troll farm internal e-mails in the social media indictment.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 10:36 AM

4. Rico was the right way to work this case, the financial crimes run deep and into the Billions.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 10:40 AM

5. Its been a year already

why is Muller dragging this out?

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Response to highmindedhavi (Reply #5)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 11:14 AM

8. The conspiracy is huge and the financing is complex.

And Mueller knows he only gets one shot at our liddle’ dictator. Any mistake along the way could compromise the whole investigation.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Reply #5)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 11:45 AM

9. Watergate took two years.

Patience, grasshopper.

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Response to mac56 (Reply #9)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 08:33 PM

39. And Benghazi -- well, take a look at this chart from USA Today:

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Response to mac56 (Reply #9)

Sat Mar 10, 2018, 11:28 AM

55. And it was just an inept minor burglary.

Here we've got conspiring with military adversaries to attack the American vote, money laundering, and loads of "lying when it's gonna get you in trouble."

I wouldn't be surprised to see Trumpco brought down on racketeering charges as an ongoing criminal enterprise.

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Response to highmindedhavi (Reply #5)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:14 PM

19. Welcome to DU. I lived through Watergate. This is moving faster, despite being much bigger.

Mueller is freaking amazing.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #19)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 01:24 PM

29. I too lived through Watergate and LOL when people say this investigation is taking so long

Mueller is very good and the OrangeTurd gang is a really sloppy crime family.

Otherwise we could be looking at another year or two,

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Response to YessirAtsaFact (Reply #29)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 09:18 PM

41. I lived through Watergate also....I don't care if it takes time...why?

Nixon's gang got jail time...we know..

40 members of his administration were convicted of crimes, most got jail time..All top aids and the Atty General of the United States spent time in jail.......partial list...

◾H.R. Haldeman and John Erlichman (White House staff), resigned 30 April 1973, subsequently jailed


◾John Dean (White House legal counsel), sacked 30 April 1973, subsequently jailed


◾John Mitchell, Attorney-General and Chairman of the Committee to Re-elect the President (CREEP), jailed


◾Howard Hunt and G. Gordon Liddy (ex-White House staff), planned the Watergate break-in, both jailed


◾Charles Colson, special counsel to the President, jailed


◾James McCord (Security Director of CREEP), jailed

As has been pointed out in the Original Post, Mueller is taking his time. There will be a list like this in a year or so. I just hope we will all be around to celebrate.


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Response to Stuart G (Reply #41)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 10:50 PM

47. +1

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #19)

Sat Mar 10, 2018, 03:40 AM

51. Watergate was small

Potatoes compared to the corruption involved in this group of thugs.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #19)

Sat Mar 10, 2018, 05:16 AM

52. I Agree

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Response to highmindedhavi (Reply #5)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 04:57 PM

35. um

 

a year is not a long time for this kind of investigation

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Response to Skittles (Reply #35)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 10:51 PM

48. Apparently it is for Trump's lawyer and probably the GOP. :D

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Response to highmindedhavi (Reply #5)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 06:34 PM

36. Just to chime in: It's not being dragged out - it's going to be very thorough

And very well documented.

Perhaps the congress/courts won't act in their nation's interest, but there will be no escaping what has been done in the name of greed.

The documentation is being spread around the planet and codified in millions of accessible forms. If some ruling dictator says "ONLY GOOD WORDS ABOUT THE PUTIN/TRUMP MARRIAGE" it will be ineffectual.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 10:42 AM

6. Kick

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 10:44 AM

7. Mueller took out Gotti and the Gambino

crime family. He has no fear and knows how to build a case. It's the people he hasn't already spoken to and interviewed that should be shaking in their boots.

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Response to leftynyc (Reply #7)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 02:03 PM

31. *Insert evil chuckle smiley here*


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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 11:57 AM

10. Never has

the immense power of the intelligence apparatus been put to better use than against the corrupt conman who grifted his way into the White House and is busy selling us out to the russians.

I hope that when Mr. Mueller happens upon faux snooze-type freakouts about his investigation, he gets a patrician chuckle out of their idiocy.

If he cleanses the executive branch of these criminals, he will be remembered as one of the greatest heroes in American history.


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Response to not fooled (Reply #10)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:02 PM

13. Statue in front of FBI HQ. Schools named after him. -nt

 

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Response to poboy2 (Reply #13)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:07 PM

15. Here's

hoping your predictions become truths.


thanks for the lovely thoughts,
kp

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Response to poboy2 (Reply #13)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:15 PM

20. A head on Mt. Rushmore.

We could just replace Teddy Roosevelt; nobody cares about him any more.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #20)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:29 PM

23. Not true

He was our original conservationist for one. He created the National parks and the protection of species so man wouldn’t kill them off the way the Trump boys want to. Sure he was an avid hunter, but he understood the importance of the ecology and the protection of the land.

If he were alive today he would fight to protect the planet from climate change. In many respects he was way ahead of his time.

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Response to lunatica (Reply #23)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:33 PM

24. I was joking. But surely we could find a suitable location...

Maybe atop Trump Tower.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #24)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 01:14 PM

27. His face would be a defacement of any location!

Sorry about the misunderstanding.

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Response to lunatica (Reply #27)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 02:44 PM

33. Mueller's face?

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #33)

Sat Mar 10, 2018, 01:44 AM

50. Trumps face

It would be like having Big Brother looming everywhere like his hero strongman Saddam Hussein.

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Response to lunatica (Reply #50)

Mon Mar 12, 2018, 08:32 AM

56. Ew. What I meant was let's put Mueller's face on Trump Tower (after Trump is gone).

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #56)

Mon Mar 12, 2018, 08:53 AM

58. LOL!

Boy! Did I misunderstand what you meant!

I think I need a break from Trump.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #20)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:54 PM

26. I care about Teddy Roosevelt!

 

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Response to not fooled (Reply #10)

Sat Mar 10, 2018, 12:04 AM

49. Legislative Branch is complicit also

And with all of McConnell's unqualified judicial appointments, the Judicial Branch may be tainted also. The GOP House and Senate wings took illegal Russian (and other foreign?) contributions. They are also complicit in obstruction of justice. And then there is the NRA. If Mueller is completely successful in his investigation, we have some interesting times ahead of us my DU friends.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 11:58 AM

11. Thanks for sharing the insights.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 11:59 AM

12. "He has the entire US intelligence apparatus at his disposal..."

I'll bet he has the bigly cooperation of a number of international agencies, too.

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Response to CrispyQ (Reply #12)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:16 PM

21. We know there's international cooperation; that's how we learned about Papadoppadoo.

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Response to CrispyQ (Reply #12)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:23 PM

22. Well, tRump has dissed

The FBI
The CIA
The NSA
The Media

Do you really think it's a good idea to piss-off people who buy their ink by the barrel, the folks who do national law enforcement, and the nation's full spy organization?

Out, out, brief candle!
Trump's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

(With apologies to the Bard)

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:09 PM

16. The headline makes it look...

like Meuller is cheating! Blssedly, he is playing straight-up good lawyerin'!

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 12:49 PM

25. Daily Kos article is good - comments are GREAT

Check out the comments on the OP's Daily Kos article. They're great comments and almost no trolls on there.
How did they do that?

Many intelligent and pertinent things written, almost like the quality we see on DU. I'm impressed!


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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 01:18 PM

28. Your friend had better be right. This ship is sinking to dangerous levels; about to tip over.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 02:09 PM

32. that is hopeful to read

Mr. Mueller is no chump that is for sure. He knows what he is doing. drip...drip.....drip.....and then the floodgates will open.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 03:54 PM

34. That sounds like an adjustment

I'm not a believer in adjustments. Far too much sucker potential, like the final days of the 2016 campaign when everyone was sure something was about to be dumped on Trump. We even had a lawyer show up out of nowhere and claim it was all but inevitable. I posted that I didn't care about details or speculation, that a late game variable of that type is always extremely low percentage so that makes it low percentage in 2016, no matter the adjustments.

Anyway, this sounds like something Rachel Maddow would believe and tout. I am not a fan of her instincts, to put it mildly.

We need to try to win elections under the assumption Trump will still be president and with rising approval ratings. That is the big picture likelihood. The stock market is soaring today and earnings are up. Every forecaster today is emphasizing the positives. Obama jumpstarted the recovery but Trump will receive credit, based on cruel realities of the calendar.

It's like Ryder Cup match play golf when you always assume your opponent will sink the vital putt. If we continue to pretend Mueller will take him out or Trump will still be in mid 30s approval come November, we won't manage the expected gains.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #34)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 09:29 PM

43. Hope you are not right.

Shudder.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 07:06 PM

37. I hope he's right and I know these kinds of investigations take a while and

must be thorough, but Trump and company are doing massive amounts of damage to this country daily. We can't afford to let this drag out too long.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 08:14 PM

38. Now if a editorial cartoonist reads this.

They could have Mueller playing poker with the full deck(s) up his sleeves. And maybe a playing the game before a judge. And the FBI, CIA, NSA, MI6, and other agencies backing him up.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #38)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 09:52 PM

45. Dogs playing poker...

police-type dogs would be cool.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 09:13 PM

40. Slow pace?..If Mueller gets them all, I am for a slow pace..

Here, we have a description of what the ..."slow pace is all about"

"entire U.S. intelligence apparatus at his disposal"...think about that one..(and probably other nations who cooperate with us as well)..

We all know what that means............................................................................

.....................Trump and his sons are toast...burnt to a crisp, non edible, sh*t"

....Trump may get off with a resignation............but the others..all the others...jail time...

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 09:26 PM

42. Love all this that is happening. However, how is it

that Manafort still comes in and pleads not guilty?
What is up with that?
Is he still so afraid of the polonium tea?

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Response to dhol82 (Reply #42)

Sat Mar 10, 2018, 07:02 AM

54. In a word, yes.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 09:45 PM

44. Another comment about Muller's team ..vs Trump's gang...

I believe deeply, that Muller's team, in terms of their own inherent intelligence (upstairs in their brains, not the CIA secret kind).. is playing with a full deck, and then some..

Trump's team, in terms of their intelligence...(in their brains) is missing a whole lot of screws..and is missing a whole lot of parts. That team was so sure they could get away with anything. All of them, including those at the very top. Very much like the arrogance of the Nixon crew.. (see post 41..to know what happened to Nixon's crew)

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2018, 09:54 PM

46. This is likely going into 2019 so be ready.

The political analysts on CNN and MSNBC agreed that Mueller it very thorough and this is gigantic. It could involve corruption among many world leaders too!

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Sat Mar 10, 2018, 06:25 AM

53. I am ok with taking another year IF

Mueller gets the goods on Pence as well AND the Dems flip the House as well. If by any means they could flip the Senate that would be icing on the cake but I won't hold my breath on that one.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Mar 12, 2018, 08:39 AM

57. If Mueller can really save us from this monster....

Put his face on Mt. Rushmore. Or maybe a monument on the Mall.

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