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Tue Feb 13, 2018, 04:38 AM

TN-SEN: Internal Poll Has Republicans Freaking Out.

Retiring Sen. Bob Corker is “listening” to Republicans urging him to run for reelection, according to a person close to him, a development that would quell anxiety among Republicans over losing a must-win seat to Democrats this fall.

The two-term Tennessee GOP senator decided to call it quits in September amid an on-again, off-again dispute with President Donald Trump that has eroded his standing with the party’s base. But now a faction of Republicans in Tennessee and Washington are worried that the favorite for the Republican Senate nomination, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), could lose the general election — and with it the Senate majority.

An internal poll taken in late January shows former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen narrowly edging out Blackburn in a hypothetical match-up. With Republicans controlling just 51 seats, a loss in Tennessee and other competitive races could put the Senate in play — despite an electoral map tilted heavily in the GOP’s favor.

The poll, conducted by Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies for a Tennessee business group and obtained by POLITICO, shows Bredesen up 47 to 45, despite a sample that was overweighted with Republicans. The survey shows that voters preferred a generic Republican over a Democrat and strongly approved of Trump, signs that even in a Republican-leaning state like Tennessee, Blackburn is in for a tough race.

Asked to respond to Corker’s second thoughts and the coterie of Republicans pushing him to run again, Blackburn’s campaign insisted she was in the race to stay, whether Corker runs or not. Blackburn’s allies argue she will unite the GOP in the conservative state and crush Bredesen in the fall.


https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/12/tennessee-corker-republicans-senate-405971

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Reply TN-SEN: Internal Poll Has Republicans Freaking Out. (Original post)
RandySF Feb 2018 OP
Cha Feb 2018 #1
DFW Feb 2018 #2
NewJeffCT Feb 2018 #10
DFW Feb 2018 #16
NewJeffCT Feb 2018 #17
DFW Feb 2018 #18
mobeau69 Feb 2018 #3
Sam McGee Feb 2018 #4
chwaliszewski Feb 2018 #5
Wounded Bear Feb 2018 #11
beachbum bob Feb 2018 #6
Docreed2003 Feb 2018 #7
Wounded Bear Feb 2018 #12
Docreed2003 Feb 2018 #14
riversedge Feb 2018 #8
Hortensis Feb 2018 #9
Gothmog Feb 2018 #13
Docreed2003 Feb 2018 #15

Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 05:23 AM

1. Keep it steady, Dems, in

Tennessee and all over the Country!

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 06:31 AM

2. The way things stand, Blackburn won't be crushing anybody

I don't discount typical Republican electoral fraud pulling out yet one more "surprise upset victory" over Bredesen, but it won't be a rout, even if they convince Corker to reverse his decision.

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Response to DFW (Reply #2)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 10:16 AM

10. yes, the national GOP

will need to expand resources to hold on to this seat, even though TN is a reliably red state. Even if this is a close loss, it means they might have less to spend in Nevada, Arizona or elsewhere.

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #10)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 12:00 PM

16. If they lose both TN and NV

Their chances of holding on to the majority are somewhere between precarious and perilous. I think they'd sacrifice Nevada before Tennessee.

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Response to DFW (Reply #16)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 01:08 PM

17. I still think it's a major longshot

for Democrats to win back control of the Senate. Democrats would need to hold every seat they have up for grabs (all 25), and also pick off a few Republicans among the 8 that are running for re-election. In any normal year, Democrats would be in line to lose 5-7 seats or more with the ugly map they have this November. (Democrats went 0-9 in close senate races in 2014...)

If the Democrats only lose 1 or 2 seats in the Senate, hold even or pick up 1 seat, the media will go all out and call it a repudiation of Democrats, the Resistance and the #MeToo movement all in one. However, the reality is that if the Democrats have 45 or more seats after election day, it should be considered a big victory.

That said, I think Beto O'Rourke has a shot versus Ted Cruz. In 2012, Democrat Dave DeWhurst raised under $150,000 in total and lost to Cruz by "only" 16 points, 56.5-40.5 or something close to that. Cruz raised over $9 million. In 2017, O'Rourke outraised Cruz and took in $2.4 million in just the last quarter of 2017. With the anti-Trump bump to Democrats, it could worth a bump of 5, 10 or even 15 points for some Democrats.



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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #17)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 01:47 PM

18. Agreed that it's a long shot, but not impossible. Republican voter fraud is my biggest worry.

If they can disenfranchise the voting rights of a few dozen thousand voters in key states, it could be enough to keep the Senate Republican, no matter what the real wishes of the voters were (see: "2016". It has been shown clearly enough that if they think they can get away with it, they will try, and they will not be unsuccessful everywhere. Neil Gorsuch and Clarence Thomas will vote blindly to disallow the voting rights of any group they deem "potentially Democratic," and Roberts, Alito and Kennedy lean that way, though cracks in that wall have been known to crop up from time to time.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 06:38 AM

3. GOTV

2018 will be the whole ball of wax.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 06:48 AM

4. Marsha Blackburn . . .

. . . is a nutcase. Certified wackadoodle. Google her.

Bredesen was a very popular governor. Of course, that was then, this is now.

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Response to Sam McGee (Reply #4)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 07:09 AM

5. Marsha Blackburn...

is poo-wearing crazy.

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Response to chwaliszewski (Reply #5)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 10:17 AM

11. Hopefully the crazy will motivate all those Ind/Dems who've been sitting on their hands...

As always GOTV, including non-Dems and other sane folks.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 07:16 AM

6. the tide is turning, I smiled when Blackburn announced her intention, she appeals

to the batshit crazies and tennessee has more than just those voters.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 08:10 AM

7. Blackburn is nuts...and is tainted by Russian connections as well

Bredesen was a phenomenal mayor of Nashville, he essentially built the base of what Nashvegas is today as a tourist and business hotspot, and he was a steady, strong governor. He’s not extremely liberal but he is a strong Democrat and he could easily win the state, especially against nutty Marsha. Also, he’s a great guy personally, our family has know him for years and he is incredibly genuine and gracious.

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Response to Docreed2003 (Reply #7)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 10:18 AM

12. I'm no purist...

If there is a Dem that can win the seat, I'll forgive a few small differences in policy.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #12)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 11:20 AM

14. Phil will certainly serve TN well...

And I agree with your point completely!!

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 09:46 AM

8. 🌊🌊🌊 #FlipItBlue #BlueWave2018

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 10:13 AM

9. Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen sounds as good as Blackburn is awful.

Hope Bob Corker's "senate exit package," i.e., rewards for services rendered by business, is just too good to give up. However, if he runs again after all, is there any chance Blackburn could fulfill the fear last fall that trumpsters might kick him out in the primary?

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 10:41 AM

13. Bredesen could flip this Senate seat

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #13)

Tue Feb 13, 2018, 11:21 AM

15. Hey very well could!

We’ll be fighting like hell for him here in the Nashville area!!

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