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ucrdem

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Àngeles de Porciúncula
Home country: US
Current location: East of East L.A.
Member since: Sun Jan 20, 2013, 08:15 PM
Number of posts: 9,870

Journal Archives

If Sanders won EVERY pledged delegate in California, he'd still be 82 short of a PD majority.

A majority of pledged (elected) delegates = 2,026. Right now, Hillary has 1,769 PDs, and Sanders has 1,469 PDs. If Sanders won every pledged delegate in California, he would have 1,469 + 475 = 1,944 PDs. That's 82 short of a pledged delegate majority.

And once we include the super delegates, who give Hillary a much bigger spread, Sanders needs to win 841 out of 914 total remaining delegates to clinch at 2,383. Yes, it's still mathematically possible, but the chances of it happening are infinitesimal.

Figures from: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

90% of my CA phonebank respondents voted for Hillary or planned to.

Surprise! If you call from a candidate's phone bank you get targeted lists of numbers. Most numbers I called yesterday didn't go through (changed, fax noise, message, no answer, church answering machine in one case). Most calls that went through went to people who'd already voted for Hillary by mail or planned to at the polls June 7. One was a Bernie supporter (I think--the connection wasn't terribly clear).

I was at Woodland Hills Hillary for America from about 5-8 pm. The call center was pretty busy when I got there, not so busy when I left. It's open every day from 9-9. Lots of enthusiasm in evidence. To find a local call center or make calls from home using your cell phone:

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/grassroots/make-calls/

AP, 5/27: Hillary needs 73 delegates to clinch; Bernie needs 841.



https://interactives.ap.org/2016/delegate-tracker/



Hillary comes home to Oakland

. . . the Home of Chicken and Waffles, that is!


Hillary Clinton, center, meets with from left, Regina Jackson, CEO of East Oakland Youth Development Center; Derreck Johnson, owner of Home of Chicken and Waffles; Mayor Libby Schaa; OSUSD Superintendent Antwan Wilson; and Alameda County Supervisor Wilma Chan at the Home of Chicken and Waffles Friday, May 27, 2016, in Oakland, Calif

Hillary Clinton talks gentrification and urban policy at Oakland diner
05/27/2016

OAKLAND -- Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign took on a local flavor Friday morning as she held court inside an Oakland diner, discussing everything from gentrification to helping ex-felons get jobs.

"That's why I'm here," she told her select group of breakfast-mates, who included Mayor Libby Schaaf and Oakland schools Superintendent Antwan Wilson. "I want to be a champion for Oakland and all the Oaklands of America -- places that have challenges ... but places that are coming together."

http://www.eastbaytimes.com/breaking-news/ci_29948473/hillary-clinton-talks-gentrification-and-urban-policy-atb3b4.html?

CALIFORNIA ♥ HILLARY!

Hillary talks gentrification and urban policy at Oakland diner

It's called Home of Chicken and Waffles:


Hillary Clinton, center, meets with from left, Regina Jackson, CEO of East Oakland Youth Development Center; Derreck Johnson, owner of Home of Chicken and Waffles; Mayor Libby Schaa; OSUSD Superintendent Antwan Wilson; and Alameda County Supervisor Wilma Chan at the Home of Chicken and Waffles Friday, May 27, 2016, in Oakland, Calif
05/27/2016

OAKLAND -- Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign took on a local flavor Friday morning as she held court inside an Oakland diner, discussing everything from gentrification to helping ex-felons get jobs.

"That's why I'm here," she told her select group of breakfast-mates, who included Mayor Libby Schaaf and Oakland schools Superintendent Antwan Wilson. "I want to be a champion for Oakland and all the Oaklands of America -- places that have challenges ... but places that are coming together."

{snip}

Friday's event in Oakland stood in sharp contrast to her rallies the day before in San Jose and San Francisco, where she spoke in bellowing tones attacking presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump to throngs of cheering supporters.

Clinton has held numerous local "roundtables" while campaigning this year, a format her campaign officials say provides a more natural setting for a candidate who prefers one-on-one interactions and is well versed in the minutia of public policy.

It also gave her an opportunity to speak to issues that resonate particularly in Oakland, an overwhelmingly Democratic city that will be crucial for her in defeating rival Bernie Sanders in the June 7 primary.


http://www.eastbaytimes.com/breaking-news/ci_29948473/hillary-clinton-talks-gentrification-and-urban-policy-atb3b4.html?

When I got to the stadium today, I shed a tear or two. It was empty!!!

This is actually a tale of two rallies, as both Senator Sanders and Secretary Clinton came to my town today, and I had the good luck of scoring tickets to both events (I clicked "yes"). Well here's how it went down:

Hillary's was scheduled to start at 3:30 in the Johnson Family Practice Center at UC Riverside, which turns out to be a former gymnasium, and predictably was full when I got there at 4 with groups of students, onlookers, protesters of all stripes and of course security gathering around every outside walkway and entrance. Hillary was scheduled to speak at 5:30 and started at about 6:00, and spoke clearly, forcefully and thoughtfully on a number of issues including jobs, immigration, equal rights, union rights, national security, ACA, universal health care, Obama's record, her accomplishments as SoS and Senator, the dismal Bush presidency, Bill's accomplishments (big cheers and several big applause lines), the toxic political climate, the dangers of a Trump presidency, the need to work together, depending on California to help win the White House, and a few others. It was a good speech, well delivered, with quiet moments that were a little hard to hear over the crowd but effective nonetheless.

I worked my way to the barricades and put my 3-foot Go Hill sign (below) to use drowning out the protesters who to their credit didn't seem to be Bernie bros but the usual campus protesters. One chant they liked went "Hillary, Hillary, she'll put us in pov-er-ty." But I waved my sign and had fun yelling Go Hill, Hill-a-ry, 8 more years, ACA, White House, etc whenever they started up, with the effect that they were quiet enough so we could hear most of the speech. At a couple of points I noticed security casting me a concerned look but it was loads of fun.



Onto the Bernie rally, held at a local baseball stadium known as the Orange Show Bowl and scheduled to start at 7. I left the Hill event and got there around 7:15, but the stadium was completely empty. No crowds, no traffic, no signs, nothing. I walked to the entrance and a rent-a-cop there told me that the Bernie event was on the other side. A loooong walk later I finally found the Bernie event, with a crowd of about two hundred waiting to get inside. I could hear Bernie talking about Secretary Clinton, his huge campaign, 2 million people, if Democrats want to win he's their guy, the Walton family yadda yadda. I make my way to the barricades again and ask why people were waiting to get into an empty stadium?

It turns out Bernie wasn't in the stadium, he was in a quonset hut the size of grocery store called "National Orange Show Event Center" which probably holds as many people as were waiting, a couple of hundred. So being generous I'd say there 500 tops at Bernie's event, and guessing roughly from the size of the building maybe 1,000 at Hillary's. But Hillary's was on a nice college campus and Bernie's was in a flea market and as I walked back to my car past heaping boxes of badly printed Bernieware that's the vibe I got. I also passed at least one gent sleeping on the sidewalk and another relieving himself in the bushes.

To sum up, my on-the-ground impression of both events is that Hillary's campaign is a going proposition and Bernie's is coming to a well-earned rest. And here's my awesome sign which I discretely left in the car at the Bernie rally:

....................................
ETA: more pics posted below (reply #71).

Clinton has more California friends than Sanders — and why that matters

California surrogates help Clinton close the deal:
.............................................
LA Times - May 21, 2016

Bernie Sanders is winning the visuals in the fight for California's presidential vote. Every one of his events draws enthusiastic crowds numbering in the adoring thousands, demonstrating support that he hopes will translate into momentum. Hillary Clinton’s campaign events are by design more intimate, featuring hundreds of supporters in venues selected to show her personal side.

But that visual contrast is only one — and historically not a determinative — measure of support. Another is the house-by-house, community group-by-community group warfare being waged in a far less visible way across the state.

In that, Clinton has the advantage, with her army of elected officials and other elements of the Democratic establishment, all trying to persuade their supporters to side with the front-runner. Theirs is a campaign dependent on an old-fashioned political virtue under assault this campaign year: trust. And a little arm-twisting.

So far in this presidential contest, Rep. Xavier Becerra has campaigned for Clinton in eight states and done interviews with television and radio outlets in seven more. In California, he’s campaigned in his home base of Los Angeles and in Santa Barbara. Up soon: the Central Valley and Sacramento. All of it is intended to extend his credibility to her.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-sanders-clinton-california-20160521-snap-story.html

Respectfully requesting that a rampdown from primary mode start sooner than later.

It's kind of alarming seeing lunatic conspiracy theories pop up like dandelions in GDP, some of laughable mendacity including a tearful OP about "switched" delegates that reportedly made it into a TYT broadcast and a whopper today claiming that the server-gate investigation was initiated last August by John Kerry. In fact it appears to have had its origin in a 2012 Congresssional effort led by Darrel Issa, NYT link below, though unofficially it likely started the minute she took the job:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/15/us/politics/hillary-clintonwas-asked-about-email-2-years-ago.html

So that's today's minority-of-one report LOL, oh and DU is still the best damn site on the planet!



Email-gate began with a 2012 letter from Darrel Issa to Clinton regarding her use of private email.

And even that wasn't really the beginning as Issa's "investigation" had begun even earlier. It did not, repeat not by any stretch of the RWNJ imagination begin with John Kerry. That is SBVT lunacy. Here's an April 2015 NYT article about Issa's 2012 letter:

Hillary Clinton Was Asked About Email 2 Years Ago
By MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT - NYT - APRIL 14, 2015

WASHINGTON — Hillary Rodham Clinton was directly asked by congressional investigators in a December 2012 letter whether she had used a private email account while serving as secretary of state, according to letters obtained by The New York Times.

{snip per request}

The query was posed to Mrs. Clinton in a Dec. 13, 2012, letter from Representative Darrell Issa, the Republican chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Mr. Issa was leading an investigation into how the Obama administration handled its officials’ use of personal email.

“Have you or any senior agency official ever used a personal email account to conduct official business?” Mr. Issa wrote to Mrs. Clinton. “If so, please identify the account used.”

Mr. Issa also asked Mrs. Clinton, “Does the agency require employees to certify on a periodic basis or at the end of their employment with the agency they have turned over any communications involving official business that they have sent or received using nonofficial accounts?”

Mr. Issa’s letter also sought written documentation of the department’s policies for the use of personal email for government business. Mrs. Clinton left the State Department on Feb. 1, 2013, seven weeks after the letter was sent to her.


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/15/us/politics/hillary-clintonwas-asked-about-email-2-years-ago.html

If Sanders runs 3rd party, Clinton wins. Here's why:

Right now the Bernie coalition consists of disgruntled/disaffected Dems, independents, and new voters. The Dems go Hillary. The Independents split or go to Trump. New voters (20-30) either split or favor Dems. Trump gets the luntatic right, Bernie gets some Independents, and Hillary gets the Obama coalition + half or most new Dems.

It might be harder but she still wins. So bring it on.
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