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louis c

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Gender: Male
Hometown: Boston
Home country: USA
Current location: Boston
Member since: Fri May 14, 2004, 05:52 PM
Number of posts: 5,087

About Me


Journal Archives

Clinton Regains Lead in Dubious LA Times/USC Daybreak Poll

The LA Times/USC Daybreak Poll is difficult to understand. For starters, it's mostly experimental, using a methodology that has never been used before. Let me see if I can explain it as I think I understand it.

It's a daily tracking poll. It has about 3,600 participants, all broken down into a 400 voter blocks for each day. The strange part about it is, that it's the same 3,600 voters polled straight through, including the same 400 for each day. As you watch the trend line, it seems to move from a pro-Hillary number to a pro-Trump number, over time. I think each block, just through chance, has become more a leaner to one candidate or another. Remember, the voters never change. Every 7 days, a block is sidelined for two days and then re-enters the poll for seven. If you look at the trend line in the link below, it bears out my thesis. Hence, a Trump lead of 2 points yesterday disappeared today, just as it did 11 days ago. The numbers swing wildly from Trump up 7 just after the Republican convention, to Hillary up 5 just days after the Democratic convention. Of the participants, there seems to be a Trump bias, as he always over performs all the national polls. When the average is Hillary up 8 points, she usually only has a 3 point lead here. When the national polls had the race about even just after the Republican convention, as I said, it had Trump up seven.

I used to use this poll to follow a trend line, but it's getting so it can't even be trusted for that. In the end, this is a useless poll, but we should understand it so we can respond when Trumpets refer to it. Today, Clinton has a fraction of a point lead.


It's Easy for Me to Understand Trump's Efforts to Appeal to African-Americans

He's a bigot clumsily attempting to act like he's not one.

We have all seen this act in our personal lives. A white, male, 70 year old bigot, trying to convince himself that he's really not a bigot and trying to convince his contemporaries that everyone misunderstands him. In fact, we understand him all too well.

The Trump Flip Flop Reminds Me of a Local Election I was Involved In.

Let me see if this analogy works. My Dad was a City Councilor in our home town. He ran "At-Large", meaning city wide, in a city with 21,000 eligible voters at the time. The 5 top vote getters of the at-large council candidates would win. In this particular year, my Dad was running for re-election. The big fight in the town was that a long term, incumbent Mayor had a challenger in an equally long term State Rep.

One of the other incumbent Councilors decided to get involved in the Mayor's race, and endorsed the current Rep against the incumbent Mayor, and put a bumper sticker on his own car. I should note here that this was a 50-50 race at the time. All the Mayor's supporters turned against the councilor who took that stand. Shaken and politically frightened, he retracted his endorsement of the Rep and declared his neutrality in the race. Dumb move. In the first instance, he alienated everyone on one side and his corrective action alienated everyone on the other. In the end, he lost big. By the way, my Dad won one of those seats.

The point here is Trump has staked out the bigotry side of the immigration issue. Now he is measuring that he can't win with just the bigots. Conway, a pollster, has explained that to Trump. So now, Trump's going to try to pretend he's not a bigot by flip flopping on his bigoted anti-immigration stand.

In the end, he'll end up just like the City Councilor who tried to fool all of the people, all of the time. It just won't work. He'll end up losing both sides.

There is no path to vicory for Donald Trump other than our complacency

Today's polls put the three key states in the electoral map squarely in Hillary Clinton's corner.

With Virginia and New Hampshire out of reach for Trump in the most recent polls with leads in the mid-teens there are three key states in which Trump has to win all three.

Pennsylvania, Clinton is ahead by nearly 9 points in the average of polls there, 5 and 9 point leads in the most recent polls in Florida and 6 points in today's poll from Ohio. Clinton only needs to win one of these, if all other poll numbers hold, even if she loses Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada, in which she is either just slightly ahead or even.

Donald Trump Plagiarized his Campaign Slogan Without Attribution

Some people here maybe thought this was a joke. I posted this same item 6 weeks ago, but maybe so much was going on, I didn't get much of a response. Maybe because to get to the important part, you have to listen to Benito Mussolini stumble through his difficult to understand broken English.

This is a Fox Movietone (ya, can you believe that irony) video clip from 1929. At around the 1:00 mark, he says the only really clear English in his whole speech "Make America Great". I know, it's hard to believe, but it's true.


Could Someone Please Explain the Polling Disparaty at Reuters/Ipsos and RCP?

I follow the polling in this Presidential race with near obsession. That's because I love politics and I know this election truly is the most important in my lifetime.

Having said that, why do I read a Reuters/Ipsos national poll that has Hillary up by 8 points head to head with Trump and 7 points with Stein and Johnson in it dated Aug. 18?


And the Real Clear Politics Web Site that has a national Reuters/Ipsos poll that has Hillary 5 points over Trump head to head and 4 points with Johnson and Stein


The Most Important Question to Ask Trump about Louisiana

Mr. Trump, after viewing the devastation in Louisiana, you are aware that these flood events in this area are once in 500 to 1,000 year events? Are you also aware of the fact that these rare events happened to the same area twice in six months? Knowing that, what effect do you think climate change has had on the devastation here and similar flooding, droughts and huge fires throughout this country?

Donald Trump is not Polically Incorrect

Trump always refers to his racist statements as "not being politically correct".

Let me explain my understanding of not being "politically correct". If someone refers to "Native Americans" as "Indians", that's not politically correct. If a 60 year old man refers to a 26 year old woman as a "girl", that's not politically correct.

To say most Mexicans are murders and rapists, that's bigotry. To say all Muslims are terrorists, that bigotry. To allude to a woman's attitude being as a result of menstruating, that's sexist.

To too many Trump supporters, they think that bigotry is some how just not being politically correct and that has set this country back a generation.

Bigotry and sexism are not being politically incorrect, it's hate.

The $400 Million was not Ransom

Why is it that people purposely try to misunderstand an easy to understand process.

Iran held 4 American hostages. The U.S. Government was working through backchannels to get them released, to no avail.

In separate negotiations, the United States was about to lose a case involving an old arms deal in which the U.S. held $400 Million of Iran's money. We had to return it, sooner or later.

We returned the money, which we would have been obliged to do, but made the hostages part of the deal. This was not our $400 Million, it was there's. This has nothing to do with a ransom. No one else is at risk, unless we are holding someone else's money.

Can you imagine if we lost the case and had to give back the money and didn't get the hostages back? Obama and Clinton would be roasted over a pit if it that happened.

Why doesn't everyone get it?

Is it Just Me, or does Donald Trump not Understand what a Teleprompter is for?

The point of a teleprompter is to make it appear to the listener that you're speaking without reading. If you want to read a speech, read it from paper. The teleprompter was invented so you didn't have to look down at notes. Look how Barak has mastered the teleprompter. He speaks with the proper cadence, the right inflection and the ability to look as though he's not reading.

Trump, on the other hand, looks like a dope reading somebody else's words.

How is it that the MSM thinks this looks Presidential? Is the bar so low that his very poor performance, reading on stage, is a success because it is not a bigoted, crude, profanity laced tirade which in nonsensical and insulting. Have we really lowered the bar that far for this insane windbag.

I am ashamed of America's electorate even if Trump breaks 30%. In politics, experts tell me that in a one on one race, that even the worst idiot can do 20%. That should be Trump's ceiling.
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