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Divernan

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Member since: 2002
Number of posts: 12,513

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"OK, now Hillary Clinton seems to have some problems in Iowa"

Here's a great article to start off our holiday weekend!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/02/ok-now-hillary-clinton-is-starting-to-have-some-problems-in-iowa/

The photo above was taken in Madison, Wis., a little more than 100 miles from the border of Iowa, where a reported 10,000 people came to hear Bernie Sanders speak Wednesday. The polling strength of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) in Iowa is almost certainly in part due to the proximity of his state, so all of those excited Wisconsinites aren't what Clinton's team wants to see.

The new poll from Quinnipiac University shows Clinton's lead in the state down to 19 points. It was 45 points in Quinnipiac polling in May.

What's interesting is that this is not the same scenario as we see in Bloomberg's polling. Clinton has seen a tangible erosion of support among men and the very liberal -- to the point that she actually trails among the latter group. But she's also seen a big drop in support from women in the state. That's a 12-point drop among women, in a poll with a margin of error of 3.6 points. It's real.

When we were tossing cold water on the Bloomberg poll, we aggregated the anyone-but-Hillary vote to compare it to the front-runner. Here, you can see that the not-Hillary vote has markedly increased -- meaning that the number of people voting against Clinton isn't just switching between candidates, but that people are moving away from her. The contingent of people who prefer a not-Clinton candidate is at 44 percent. That's ... not good for Clinton. (M)ore polls like this one -- and more photos like the one at the top -- and Clinton staffers will need to start ordering Ambien by the crate.

"OK, now Hillary Clinton seems to have some problems in Iowa"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/02/ok-now-hillary-clinton-is-starting-to-have-some-problems-in-iowa/

The photo above was taken in Madison, Wis., a little more than 100 miles from the border of Iowa, where a reported 10,000 people came to hear Bernie Sanders speak Wednesday. The polling strength of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) in Iowa is almost certainly in part due to the proximity of his state, so all of those excited Wisconsinites aren't what Clinton's team wants to see.

The new poll from Quinnipiac University shows Clinton's lead in the state down to 19 points. It was 45 points in Quinnipiac polling in May.

What's interesting is that this is not the same scenario as we see in Bloomberg's polling. Clinton has seen a tangible erosion of support among men and the very liberal -- to the point that she actually trails among the latter group. But she's also seen a big drop in support from women in the state. That's a 12-point drop among women, in a poll with a margin of error of 3.6 points. It's real.

When we were tossing cold water on the Bloomberg poll, we aggregated the anyone-but-Hillary vote to compare it to the front-runner. Here, you can see that the not-Hillary vote has markedly increased -- meaning that the number of people voting against Clinton isn't just switching between candidates, but that people are moving away from her. The contingent of people who prefer a not-Clinton candidate is at 44 percent. That's ... not good for Clinton. (M)ore polls like this one -- and more photos like the one at the top -- and Clinton staffers will need to start ordering Ambien by the crate.

Letter from Bernie re last night in Madison, WI.

Nancy -

We made a bit of history last night in Madison, Wisconsin.

Ten thousand people showed up at an event of ours — that’s more people who have come together for a presidential campaign event than any other candidate has had in 2015.

This is important.

It’s important because despite what the media would have you think, politics is not a game or a soap opera. Politics is ultimately about people coming together to improve the lives of all Americans, and not just a handful of wealthy campaign contributors.

And on July 29th, I am asking Americans from across the country to come together for a series of conversations about how we can organize an unprecedented grassroots movement that takes on the greed of Wall Street and the billionaire class.

Add your name and let me know if you’re interested in hosting or attending an organizing meeting for our campaign on July 29th, and we’ll be in touch with more information early next week.
The truth is that the big money interests, Wall Street, and corporate America have so much power that no president, no matter how great he or she may be, can defeat them unless there is an organized grassroots movement.

They have the money, but we have the people. And if we stand together, there’s nothing we cannot accomplish.


We can provide healthcare to every man, woman, and child as a right.

We can make certain that every person can get all the education they need regardless of income
And on July 29th, I am asking Americans from across the country to come together for a series of conversations about how we can organize an unprecedented grassroots movement that takes on the greed of Wall Street and the billionaire class.

We can create millions of jobs by rebuilding our crumbling roads and bridges.
We can have the best child care system in the world.

But change will not come without political participation. That's why it's so important that we come together in our communities to organize for the change we want to see in America.

Let me know that you’re willing to host or attend an organizing meeting on July 29th and we’ll be in touch with more information early next week.

I am more than aware that our opponents will be able to outspend us.

But we are going to win this election.

Bernie Sanders

https://go.berniesanders.com/page/s/organizing-meetings?source=em150702&utm_medium=email&utm_source=berniesanders&utm_campaign=organizingmeetings&utm_content=madison

Latest Iowa straw Poll: Sanders more than doubles, from 15 to 33%

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is gaining ground on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Iowa Democratic Caucus and now trails the front-runner 52 - 33 percent among likely Democratic Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Vice President Joseph Biden has 7 percent.

This compares to a 60 - 15 percent Clinton lead over Sanders in a May 7 survey of likely Democratic caucus-goers by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today's survey, former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley has 3 percent with one percent for former U.S. Sen. James Webb of Virginia. Another 5 percent are undecided.

Among Democrats 7 percent say they would definitely not support Biden, Webb or former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee and 6 percent say they would not support Clinton.

"Secretary Hillary Clinton should not be biting her fingernails over her situation in the Iowa caucus, but her lead is slipping and Sen. Bernie Sanders is making progress against her. Her 52 percent score among likely caucus-goers is still OK, but this is the first time she has been below 60 percent in Quinnipiac University's Iowa survey," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"But Sen. Sanders has more than doubled his showing and at 33 percent he certainly can't be ignored, especially with seven months until the actual voting. Iowa Democratic caucus-goers are generally considered more liberal than primary voters in most other states, a demographic that helps his insurgency against Secretary Clinton who is the choice of virtually the entire Democratic establishment." http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2259

HuffPo Front Page Lead: "BERNIMANIA" (THEIR ALL CAPS, NOT MINE!)

Wednesday's rally was Sanders' largest yet, and may be the biggest of the 2016 cycle overall. Clinton's campaign launch drew approximately 5,500 people to New York City's Roosevelt Island, while about 3,000 supporters attended Jeb Bush's kickoff in Miami.

Sanders' progressive messages resonated strongly in Wisconsin's liberal, capital city. "The big money interests — Wall Street, corporate America, all of these guys — have so much power that no president can defeat them unless there is an organized grassroots movement making them an offer they can't refuse," he said as the crowd erupted in cheers, the AP reported.

"When you deny the right of workers to come together in collective bargaining, that's extremism," Sanders said, going after Wisconsin Gov. and White House hopeful Scott Walker. "When you tell a woman that she cannot control her own body, that's extremism.


The HuffPo lead article includes some impressive photos tweeted by reporters of the huge crowd.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/07/01/bernie-sanders-madison_n_7709966.html

The Hill: Sanders Draws MASSIVE Crowd in Wisconsin

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/dem-primaries/246732-sanders-draws-massive-crowd-in-wisconsin

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders drew 10,000 supporters, the largest crowd of his campaign thus far, according to reports.

"Tonight, we have more people at any meeting for a candidate of president of the United States than any other candidate,” Sanders told his fans at Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Madison, Wis., according to the Associated Press.

Sanders used the occasion to slam Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a likely Republican White House hopeful, for Walker’s battles against state labor unions.

Sanders continued beating his populist drum, to the delight of his supporters. "The big money interests — Wall Street, corporate America, all of these guys — have so much power that no president can defeat them unless there is an organized grassroots movement making them an offer they can't refuse," he said.

Nature imitates art - flash freeze - last week in New Zealand

Remember the 2004 apocalyptic film, The Day After Tomorrow? Particularly the flash freezing which occurred as temperatures dropped instantaneously? Well, such a phenomena, albeit on a smaller scale, was observed in New Zealand last week.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11471594 (Friday Jun 26, 2015)
Flights in and out of Queenstown Airport were on hold this morning due to ice on the runway, in a "never seen before" snap freeze.

"The feedback we had from the rescue fire guys who do this inspection work was they have never seen anything like this before.

"We basically had rain first up, the rain stopped and then suddenly Queenstown was snap frozen. All that water on the runway and the roads just turned to ice."

This morning road users in Otago were also warned of severe black ice across several roads in the area.


A new weather phenomena to file away for future reference. Damned lucky a plane was not in the midst of landing when this occurred.

Check out the Catholics for Bernie & Vets for Bernie FB pages

Independent Senator Bernie Sanders is Jewish. He’s also the likely 2016 presidential candidate whose political philosophy lines up most closely with the economic and social theories of Pope Francis.

https://www.facebook.com/Catholics4Bernie?hc_location=ufi

featuring links to articles like:
The Possible Presidential Candidate Who Agrees the Most With Pope Francis
http://time.com/3661552/bernie-sanders-pope-francis/

Sanders’ social-media accounts are filled with quotes from the Holy Father about the need to reform socioeconomic systems. Unlike many leaders who name-drop Pope Francis to score political points — he is, after all, likely the most popular man on the planet — Sanders quotes the Pope because he actually believes his message. When asked about casino capitalism, Sanders points to Pope Francis, who says that is not what human life should be. “He’s saying, you know what … the economy should serve people, not people serving the economy,” Sanders explains. “The market is the billionaire class who want to get richer, that is what it is. I don’t think we should have an economy serving their needs.”

As he mused on the possibility of a 2016 campaign during an hour-long visit to TIME’s Washington bureau Thursday, Sanders hit the Pope’s main talking points before even mentioning his name. Health care as a universal right for the elderly. The economic injustices of income inequality. Climate change.

Pope Francis’ economic and political views were shaped in Argentina during the Juan Perón years. Peronism is a genre of socialism powered by working-class populism that rejects both communist and capitalist extremes. It is an ideology that resonates in some of then-Jorge-Bergoglio’s early writings, especially his appreciation of people. In this view, the poor are not just poor people who need help, Gustavo Morello, professor of sociology at Boston College, once explained to me — they are people who have a contribution to make. For Francis, this translates into “an appreciation for the folk Catholicism or the street wisdom, the things that the academia and officials tend to dismiss,” he said.
The sheer number of potential Catholic presidential candidates means that political jockeying around the Pope will only rev up this year, especially because Pope Francis’ first visit to the U.S. coincides with the launch of 2016 campaigns. It will be all the more important to parse the difference between claiming Catholic kinship with the Holy Father and actually sharing the same political ideology.

Sanders hopes to meet the Holy Father during the trip. In the meantime, he says he is continuing to read up on what the Pope says. “I’m not quite as radical as the Pope is,” he smiles. “But.”

The Clintons were seriously interested in this book.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/10/books/review/inside-the-list.html?_r=0

With the book’s debut this week at No. 10, there are now three Clinton-related volumes on the hardcover nonfiction list; Halper joins Edward Klein, whose “Blood Feud” is No. 3 after five weeks, and Hillary Clinton herself, whose “Hard Choices” is No. 5 after seven weeks. This state of affairs is nothing new.

By my count, the Clintons have featured in more than 60 best sellers since entering the national stage in 1992. And they retain a close interest in what’s written about them, according to Halper. “While I was still reporting on my book,” he told Politico last month, “James Carville’s office called, seemingly out of the blue, to grill me on whom I’d already spoken to. I obviously refused to indulge the questioner.” Halper also said that Clinton’s publisher had reached out to his publisher for information about the book, and that “Clintonites” were scrambling to identify his unnamed sources. “I’ve found the task of covering the Clintons fascinating,” he said. “They’re not exactly the people we see on television.” They may, however, be the people we see in literature.

Halper sets his tone by opening “Clinton, Inc.” with a damning line from “The Great Gatsby”: “They were careless people, Tom and Daisy — they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into . . . whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”

So the national Dems have the $$$ to win, but demand a yes man.

It's fair to say that with the chairman of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee pushing for someone (anyone? anyone? Buehler?) to oppose Sestak, he has to be promising competitive bucks - particularly to a county commissioner with NO campaign chest. The question is, should Sestak win the primary, will the national Dem leadership support a man who will not let them call all his shots. Speaking as a Pennsylvanian, I prefer a Senator who has the guts to tell puppeteers to pound sand - that he will vote for his constituents' best interests - not theirs.

That is why I long ago stopped donating to party fundraisers, and donate directly to the candidates. The party bureaucracy demands a quid pro quo of following their orders. One of the reasons the national Dems "are uncomfortable" with Sestak is that he had the audacity! the temerity !! to defy Rahm Emanuel and appear on the Stephen Colbert show without Rahm's approval.

As I've pointed out, our new Democratic governor rejected our decrepit state Democratic committee and ran his own campaign & fundraising. If we had campaign finance reform, an honorable, eminently qualified candidate like Sestak would win overwhelmingly.

Joe Sestak could provide great leadership within the Dem. Senate Caucus, if they welcomed him in. It seems his personal integrity and independence makes them cringe. Let's hope they wise up.

Shapiro last week telephoned the three Senate Democrats who had been encouraging him - Minority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada; New York's Charles Schumer; and Montana's Jon Tester, the chairman of the national party's Senate campaign committee - to decline. He also informed Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/Montcos_J osh_Shapiro_Will_not_run_for_US_Senate.html#DlzMVlRslXWHK4zW.99
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