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Buzz Clik

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Member since: Mon Dec 22, 2003, 11:13 AM
Number of posts: 37,794

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In the context of a "contested convention": Sanders's best case scenario moving into Philadelphia

The pollsters have pretty much packed it in for the Democratic primaries because the outcome is apparent to everyone (even those feigning denial). Bernie and some of his die-hard fans are trying to convince us that he will be arriving at the Democratic National Convention with enough delegates to create a contested convention. His logic (sic) is that the superdelegates don't count, except in the denominator when caculating % pledged delegates.

Anyway, let's take a glance at what his delegate numbers might look like as he arrives in Philly under the very best circumstances. Here are the ground rules:
  • Bernie wins every open primary/causus by 82/18: Puerto Rico, Montana, North Dakota
  • Bernie wins every closed primary/caucus by 65/35: Kentucky, Oregon, Virgin Islands, New Mexico, South Dakota
  • West Virginia: The scant number of polls have Sanders up by 4%. We'll give him a blowout: 65/35.
  • California: Polls indicate HRC leads by 9%. We'll assume Bernie flips CA and wins by 9%
  • New Jersey: Polls have HRC ahead by 20%. We'll assume Bernie turns NJ around and wins 52/48
  • District of Columbia: Bernie loses this one 75/25

Under these highly extreme circumstances, Bernie arrives at the Democratic National Convention trailing Clinton by 290 delegates.

No contest.


Curious... on my spreadsheet, I gave IN to Sanders 53/47.


Actually, it's meaningless.

An Agnostic's Prayer: Dear Jeebus, Have Skinner call it.

Jaw-dropping expression of either delusion or a demented attempt at being sinister.

Has anyone else seen something like this?

In a harmless conversation about whether Sanders skipping over to California to campaign was a good idea, I had this exchange:

Me: If things go according to my personal projections that include Sanders winning two of the five primaries next week and cutting deep into HRC's leads in PA, MD, and CT; winning every May and June contest (all by at least 10% and some by 80/20 margins); then, he will need a 66/34 victory in California to beat HRC by 3 delegates.

A Bernie Fan: Evidently you don't understand the entire process leading to convention and the process at convention. There are no real numbers yet. At all.

Me: This is just a big illusion? All the campaigning, voting, debates, and lawsuits are a charade?

A Bernie Fan: Pretty much. As we have been saying. We will use every inch to claim victory so we can change it. Something Hillary won't do.


So, is this pure desperation or some bizzarro plan to turn the convention upside down?

For those of you watching at home: The Secret Word is:

HOT SAUCE



(obsess much?)

The insanity from the Sanders crowd is at fever pitch.

The smell of desperation is in the air:

  • Dredging up the Rovain smears on Bill Clinton and assigning them to HRC (e.g., Mark Rich)
  • The Evolution of Hillary's accent
  • The continued distortion that HRC is blaming Sandy Hook on BS
  • HRC is a neocon
  • Kagan has endorsed HRC for president

and on and on and on.

Get a net! Get a lot of nets!

The Sanders crowd is highly emotionally invested in this Vatican story.

Sanders's lie is the second of two huge fibs in less than a week.

That's gotta sting.

About these polls: I think CBS/YouGov has it figured out.

Not everyone likes polls, but a well designed poll can be highly informative. Michigan last week on the Dem side did not have good polling numbers, for a bunch of reasons. After standing back, digging in, and discussing this, it was clear that Michigan was NOT an anomaly but a warning about poorly constructed polls.

With about 1/3 of the states' primaries in our rear view mirror and lots of polling data, the pollsters are starting to figure it out. Specifically, CBS/YouGov seems to be nailing it: they have Sanders leading Clinton by 2% in Illinois, a state that fits the Michigan model: an open primary with similar demographics.

I'm going by the assumption that CBS/YouGov has good numbers. So, let's take a look at their poll numbers:
  • Illinois: Clinton 46%, Sanders 48%
  • Florida: Clinton 62%, Sanders 34%
  • Ohio: Clinton 52%, Sanders 43%
    (I cannot find any other YouGov polls for this Tuesday)

    Resulting delegate split: Clinton 279, Sanders 234
    (I'm giving Sanders ALL the undecideds, so this is best case scenario for Sanders with these poll numbers)

    ===========

    Giving Missouri to Sanders by 10% and NC to Clinton by 10%, those delegates get split Clinton 91, Sanders 88

    My projected total for Tuesday only: Clinton 370; Sanders 321

    Running total (pledged only): Clinton 1,145; Sanders 871





  • Photoshopping Trumps mouth onto his eyes:

    SNL Opening: Hillary gets burned, Trump revealed, Cruz ridiculed, and Sanders ignored.



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