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H2O Man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:19 AM
Original message
2012 Survey (Five Questions)


The campaign for the 2012 presidential election stepped into a higher gear this week. At this point, it seems likely that President Barack Obama will not face a challenge in the democratic primaries; that the republican party will have a divisive primary season, with their party elders advocating for a candidate such as Governor Timothy James Pawlenty, while the Tea Partiers insist upon a spokesperson from their radical fringe; and a growing possibility of a third-party candidate/ticket besides the routine marginal ones.

By design, the Democratic Underground is intended to support both democratic principles and Democratic candidates. This is, I believe, as it should be. Yet there is room for thoughtful disagreement with specific politicians and candidates on important issues. Just as small doors often open into large rooms, we find a significant number of posts on this forum that voice discontent with the President; note an unwillingness to invest in his re-election campaign; and even state that he may be defeated in 2012.

Now, this is speculation on my part . but I do not believe that President Obama is either assured of victory or defeat in the upcoming election. Nor do I believe in either the it makes no difference, or the if you don't support him, you are helping Sarah Palin schools of thought. A republican victory would not only slam shut the door that is already nearly closed, but would lock out any potential of democratic change in America in the near future. It is Barack Obama, and not the democratic left, who is entirely responsible for the level of support he gets from all of the factions of the party's base. Yet, while he owns the problem, we face the consequences of a failed presidency.

The following questions are offered sincerely. Please answer any or all of them. There are no wrong answers. My goal is not to create quarrels and fights; rather, I am hoping to get a range of serious responses that illustrate the spectrum of perspective among forum participants. While we might not all agree, we can have a civil, serious discussion.

Thanks.


{1} Do you believe that President Obama may face a difficult contest in the 2012 election?


{2} Can you identify any group of states (for example, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) that could create difficulties in the context of electoral votes for President Obama?


{3} Which republican candidate/ticket do you think would be most difficult for President Obama and VP Biden in 2012?


{4} What issues will cause the biggest problems for the Democratic ticket?


{5} Can you think of a third-party candidate/ticket that would cause problems for the Democrats? For the republicans?
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annabanana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:22 AM
Response to Original message
1. brief thought on #5. ..
Anyone who could unify populist energy from both the left and the right could cause a serious problem for both.
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LaurenG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:26 AM
Response to Original message
2. OK
{1} Do you believe that President Obama may face a difficult contest in the 2012 election? Depends on who they run

{2} Can you identify any group of states (for example, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) that could create difficulties in the context of electoral votes for President Obama? Yes - Ohio for sure


{3} Which republican candidate/ticket do you think would be most difficult for President Obama and VP Biden in 2012? not Palin but thats all I know right now


{4} What issues will cause the biggest problems for the Democratic ticket? The deficit - economy


{5} Can you think of a third-party candidate/ticket that would cause problems for the Democrats? For the republicans? Sanders perhaps
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Deep13 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:27 AM
Response to Original message
3. answers
{1} Do you believe that President Obama may face a difficult contest in the 2012 election?

To be sure. His lackluster performance on the economy and the unlimited corporate spending of his opponents make this an uphill fight for him. The only thing on his side is that the Rs are scary.


{2} Can you identify any group of states (for example, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) that could create difficulties in the context of electoral votes for President Obama?

All of 'em. Also, don't forget that those Midwestern and Northeastern states are smaller now in the electoral college than they were in 2008. I don't see how he can carry OH, IN or FL.

{3} Which republican candidate/ticket do you think would be most difficult for President Obama and VP Biden in 2012?

Doesn't matter. The R goal will be to demonize Obama. The RW media and corporate cash will sanitize whoever the Rs nominate.

{4} What issues will cause the biggest problems for the Democratic ticket?

The economy and all the things the Ds failed to deliver. That and campaign spending by corporations.

{5} Can you think of a third-party candidate/ticket that would cause problems for the Democrats? For the republicans?

Not for the Rs. There can always be a spoiler on the left.
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HopeHoops Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:33 AM
Response to Original message
4. 1) no.; 2) Florida; 3) Nothing in play right now; 4) jobs; 5) no.
As for number 3, all the GOP has in play are clowns. I don't think any serious candidate wants to destroy his/her career by getting involved with the idiots who are talking about running right now.

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blondeatlast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:42 AM
Response to Original message
5. My thoughts...
{1} Do you believe that President Obama may face a difficult contest in the 2012 election?
I think any GE is going to be difficult for any Democrat.

{2} Can you identify any group of states (for example, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) that could create difficulties in the context of electoral votes for President Obama?
I'm not certain what the context of this question is, but I think any state where there is institutionalized (but unofficial) disenfranchisement, such as those you mention as well as my own, Arizona, will be huge problems as the RRRepublicans will pull out all the stops to prevent Obama from succeeding. They would for ANY Democratic candidate--but particularly for Obama.

{3} Which republican candidate/ticket do you think would be most difficult for President Obama and VP Biden in 2012?
Romney/Kyl--I definitely think Kyl is being groomed for a spot.


{4} What issues will cause the biggest problems for the Democratic ticket?
Both parties are going to cater to the independent vote, so the economy and most of all, taxes.


{5} Can you think of a third-party candidate/ticket that would cause problems for the Democrats? For the republicans?

For the Democrats, no, there's no viable candidates out there that will even attempt a run. For the republicans--almost any RW candidate, really--they so far have a very, very weak field from which to choose.
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Lyric Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:54 AM
Response to Original message
6. My answers:
Edited on Wed Apr-06-11 10:56 AM by Lyric
{1} Do you believe that President Obama may face a difficult contest in the 2012 election?

It depends on who the other side nominates, and whether or not Obama can mend fences with the left. If the GOP nominates someone crazy like Palin, Bachmann, or Trump, Obama will probably win just because people will be voting AGAINST the other side. If they nominate a strong candidate who appeals to the middle, Obama's going to be in trouble.

{2} Can you identify any group of states (for example, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) that could create difficulties in the context of electoral votes for President Obama?

Well obviously the ones you mentioned, but I also think Virginia and North Carolina might flip back to red. I also think that some of the other swing-ish states could be a problem depending on who the Republicans nominate, like New Mexico and Indiana.

{3} Which republican candidate/ticket do you think would be most difficult for President Obama and VP Biden in 2012?

Scott Brown might be a problem, especially if he adds a minority candidate like Marco Rubio to the ticket as VP. Rubio is popular in Florida and could eat away at our Latino base elsewhere. Brown is perceived as a moderate--enough to win Ted Kennedy's seat, for goodness sake--and he doesn't have much political baggage yet. He also doesn't have a whole lot of experience, but Obama himself broke down that particular barrier, so we can't count on that to save us.

{4} What issues will cause the biggest problems for the Democratic ticket?

I think that lack of support and/or apathy from groups that feel abandoned/betrayed by the President is going to be a major factor IF the GOP's ticket is relatively moderate (for them). Look at their current strategy; they are presenting bills, making demands, and issuing statements that make them look absolutely RABID...and the net effect is that the perceived "center" moves to the right. That allows them to nominate a ticket that's pretty right-wing, but SEEMS moderate compared to their current actions. Make no mistake, this is purposeful. Obama needs to start fence-mending and soon. Also, the economy and the jobs situation is going to seriously hurt him if things don't improve very soon.

{5} Can you think of a third-party candidate/ticket that would cause problems for the Democrats? For the republicans?

A Teabagger ticket would be our salvation--think Roy Moore/Sarah Palin. As for the Dems, Nader and his followers could present a problem IF they decide to enter the fray. Alan Grayson *could* hurt the President with a run from the left, but I don't think that he will. There are a few others, but all seem unlikely.
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BlueIris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-07-11 08:25 PM
Response to Reply #6
16. Okay, this post is great.
Much better than mine.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:57 AM
Response to Original message
7. I'll try.
1) not at this point. The republican field is poor. the party is suffering some sever fractures. Of course anything could happen between now and November '12.

2) Yes. Florida.

3) Pawlenty/Rubio

4) the wars/military spending

5) Not really.
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alsame Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 11:43 AM
Response to Original message
8. My answers:
{1} I think this mostly depends on two things - the state of the economy/unemployment and the GOP nominee. I don't think any of the current crop of crazies thinking about a run (Bachman, Newt, Palin, Trump) will pose a serious threat. Also, unforeseen events (a terrorist attack or other domestic crisis, another war, etc) could have an impact on the election.

{2} Those three will likely be problematic, or at least much closer than they were in 2008. I'm also concerned about VA, NC, WI and MI.

{3} I think a GOP candidate who has been above the hysterical fray so far (anti-muslim/Hispanic, homophobic, birther, etc) would have the best odds. Someone who can come across as intelligent and serious and has little baggage in terms of videotape showing them to be hypocritical, lying or just wrong about issues. Someone like Huntsman, if he chooses to run, could be very competitive. And while I shudder at the thought, I think Jeb could be a strong candidate too. As for the VP slot, I think Rubio or Scott Brown would be strategic choices.

{4} Although there are numerous issues to cite, I think the biggest overall problem will be that a majority of people do not feel that their personal situations are improving and they will blame the incumbent party. People aren't optimistic about the future and when that happens they tend to throw out the party in power (I believe that's what happened in 2010, it wasn't about a desire for 'bi-partisanship').

{5} The Tea Party could cause problems for the GOP and split the vote. Which would be fine with me. Right now I can't think of a challenger on the left, but anything can happen between now and the election.
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MilesColtrane Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 12:35 PM
Response to Original message
9. Answers

{1} Do you believe that President Obama may face a difficult contest in the 2012 election?

Yes.

Incumbents don't do very well when unemployment is over 7% or so. Oil prices will continue to rise until the election, choking off any recovery (feeble as it may be)
Economic issues, when they are bad, trump most everything else in elections.

Citizens United

Used to be that grassroots orgs and unions were major players in campaign contributions. The amount of money spent by corporations for the midterm began to push union money out of the picture.
With two years to get the corporate solicitation in high gear, contributions from individuals and unions will now have a very small influence in electing Democrats in 2012.


{2} Can you identify any group of states (for example, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) that could create difficulties in the context of electoral votes for President Obama?

Haven't thought much about that, but you'd have to look at the traditional swing states (especially in the context of 2008) I'd add Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina to the three you mention above.


{3} Which republican candidate/ticket do you think would be most difficult for President Obama and VP Biden in 2012?

Romney and Huckabee are currently polling well.


{4} What issues will cause the biggest problems for the Democratic ticket?

The Economy, The Economy, The Economy


{5} Can you think of a third-party candidate/ticket that would cause problems for the Democrats? For the republicans?

No
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OhioChick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 12:54 PM
Response to Original message
10. My Thoughts...
{1} Do you believe that President Obama may face a difficult contest in the 2012 election?

Yes.

{2} Can you identify any group of states (for example, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) that could create difficulties in the context of electoral votes for President Obama?

All that you mentioned, could be more. Given the current state of the economy and what I hear through the grapevine, I'd be really surprised if Ohio remained "blue."

{3} Which republican candidate/ticket do you think would be most difficult for President Obama and VP Biden in 2012?

My biggest concern is Romney.

{4} What issues will cause the biggest problems for the Democratic ticket?

Jobs. Unfortunately, the Democrats haven't produced and it is the #1 issue.

{5} Can you think of a third-party candidate/ticket that would cause problems for the Democrats? For the republicans?

I can't think of anyone off-hand however; I have spoken to Democrats and Republicans alike and many have stated they'll vote "I" no matter who it is.

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jpljr77 Donating Member (580 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:14 PM
Response to Original message
11. 2012 will be disgusting.
1) Of course. But I think he can win against basically anyone right now.

2) Well, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania to start. He can probably basically forget about re-winning VA and NC, and probably Indiana. Reapportionment will be tough. +2 each in definitely red Texas, Georgia, and Arizona. Also, +2 in Florida, so the stakes go up there. -2 in definitely blue NY. -2 in Penn as well, if he holds. So even if he holds all states from 2008 (which he won't), there is still a double digit electoral swing in the direction of the Pub candidate.

3) Romney. Because he's slick and businessey. But I think he could be handled. Mitch Daniels is worrisome. He could really make inroads with moderates/independents, and he could turn some midwestern blue states red. But the one that really freaks me out is Jon Huntsman. He's got business and foreign policy bona fides, and is moderate where it counts. But, he's got a Mormon Problem, like Romney, so who knows?

4) Economy/jobs

5) Yes. On the right. I could see a tea party fueled splinter candidate emerge, a la Perot. It wouldn't be anyone who is currently an elected R (like Paul(s) or Bachmann). It would be someone with vast resources, name recognition and desire to do it regardless of the consequences for the Republicans. Someone like....Donald Trump....running with someone like....Michael Bloomberg. Yeah.
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Me. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 03:21 PM
Response to Original message
12. 5/6
Do

Any state with a con gov.

Huntsman

Jobs/no real change

Dean/Gore or vice versa

Bachmann

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rosesaylavee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 07:19 PM
Response to Original message
13. ...
{1} Do you believe that President Obama may face a difficult contest in the 2012 election?
~~~ He will have a difficult contest no matter what happens. We have uncovered the Koch's hand in so many back room dealings ... who knows who else will be funding the opposition. I think it will be the toughest contest of my lifetime.


{2} Can you identify any group of states (for example, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) that could create difficulties in the context of electoral votes for President Obama?
~~~ Those three are the usual suspects. Possibly add Michigan and Wisconsin to that mix given what the gutting of the citizenry their state legislators are preparing for them between now and then. I think it is intended to dismantle and dismay whatever democratic political opposition there exists in those states and that there is more to the master multi-state plan yet to be unveiled before the end of the year.


{3} Which republican candidate/ticket do you think would be most difficult for President Obama and VP Biden in 2012?
~~~ Pawlenty and Unknown is my best guess at this point.


{4} What issues will cause the biggest problems for the Democratic ticket?
~~~ Apathy, despair, disappointment, economic stagnation, 3 friggin wars. And not in that order.


{5} Can you think of a third-party candidate/ticket that would cause problems for the Democrats? For the republicans?
~~~ I am optimistically predicting that there will NOT be one mounted by a DEM or an Independent given the awful 2000 election results. For the Republicans, I think Palin and/or Bachman will run as independents and cause a lot of ulcers on the other side.
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BlueIris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 07:29 PM
Response to Original message
14. 1) Yes. 2) Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Arizona and the one that matters:
Edited on Wed Apr-06-11 07:30 PM by BlueIris
California. Yes, I think he could actually lose California. And most other states.

3) Romney/Bloomberg. But to be fair, I don't think any Democratic ticket could beat Romney/Bloomberg. Two rich, successful white males who won't tweak anyone's "issues" and will be able to represent a return to prosperity? No Democrats can beat that, I'm afraid.

4) Failure on healthcare (especially after the individual mandates don't make it past the Supreme Court.) Failure to end wars (especially Afghanistan.) Failure to close Guantanamo. Failure to stand up for GLBT rights. Failure to support Unions. Failure to support teachers. Failure to support mainstreet over Wallstreet.

5) Biggest third party threat to both tickets is the (albeit unlikely) chance that Bloomberg decides to strike out on his own. I cannot see him doing this, as he values his life and would face harsh retribution from the neocons should he try to pull this off. I also think wildcard Evan Bayh would not be above a third party run, but feel this is an even more remote possibility.
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Dj13Francis Donating Member (343 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 07:32 PM
Response to Original message
15. alright...
1. Yes.
2. Many of them. Certainly Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. All headed by righties completely willing to subvert due process.
3. Doesn't matter. Truly, completely, unbeliveably and rediculously irrelevant. Doesn't matter at all.
4. Lies. The problem is that people believe the constantly repeated and trumpeted damnable lies. And that they're morons.
5. Kucinich, Sanders, Hartmann, Malloy, Crispin-Miller... Any of them run, they'll have my vote and my volunteer hours.


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