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Prediction: Kloppenburg Will Win - Here's Why

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demwing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:12 AM
Original message
Prediction: Kloppenburg Will Win - Here's Why
According to the AP site, there are 9 counties with a total of 24 precincts not yet counted:

Sauk(8), Ashland(6), Crawford(2), Dunn(2), Milwaukee(2), Dane(1), Jefferson(1), Juneau(1), Taylor(1)

In those combined counties, Kloppenburg has taken an average of 62% of the votes so far.

Based on the total votes already counted per county, divided by the number of precincts already reporting per county, you can calculate the average votes per precinct in each county. Multiply that number by the precincts remaining, and you get the number of potential votes not yet counted:

Sauk(3559), Ashland(966), Crawford(329), Dunn(444), Milwaukee(940), Dane(737), Jefferson(556), Juneau(174), Taylor(202)

You can then either:
A. Find the sum of all potential uncounted votes (7908) and calulate the outcome based on Kloppenburg's avergae performance in those counties as a whole
B. Calulate each individual county using the same process

It doesn't matter. If trends hold (and that could be a BIG "IF"), Kloppenburg wins in either scenario.

A. (1081 margin)
Kloppenburg:
740,955 votes (50.04%)
Prosser:
739,874 votes (49.96%)

B. (3886 margin)
Kloppenburg:
740,608 votes (50.01%)
Prosser:
740,221 votes (49.99%)

The question is whether the trends will hold, and whether the counts have been done accurately. With such a slim edge, there will be a recount - that's got to be a given.

The way it looks right now, there is the potential that Kloppenburg will fall somewhere between scenario A and B, which will get a lot of Dems excited to see if her margin of votes equals that of Bush's "win" in Florida in 2000.

OH HELL BABY,

all this MATH, and now I see Kloppenburg is 600 votes ahead!!

WOOT!


http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_co...





















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LynneSin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:14 AM
Response to Original message
1. In a nutshell - what counties host Madison & Milwaukee
Cities tend to be more liberal and have later vote returns. If those counties have not been returned then we're golden.
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demwing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:21 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. JUST UPDATED
On 5 precincts left

Milwaukee (2), Juneau (1), Jefferson (1), Taylor (1)

Koppenburg has the lead in Milwaukee and Juneau, Prosser in Jefferson an Taylor

As I write, Kloppenburg now leads by 311 votes.
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:18 AM
Response to Original message
2. Up by only 311 votes now.
Talk about a divided state. How can so many vote for their own destruction?
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forty6 Donating Member (849 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. There's one answer to that question and it's Fixed Noise!
The ONLY reason this is even close is that the folks at Fox have convinced brainless Americans that labor unions are bad, that the Governor of WI is a hero, and that down is up and the Democratic sky is pink.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:28 AM
Response to Original message
5. Details here: I'm declaring the winner in Wisconsin Supreme Court race
I'm declaring the winner in Wisconsin Supreme Court race
Tue Apr-05-11 07:35 PM PST
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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demwing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:45 AM
Response to Original message
6. Taylor and juneau counties are in, Kloppenburg still leads!
Kloppenburg: 739,317
Prosser: 739,557

240 vote difference, Jefferson (1 prrecinct) and Milwaukee (2 precincts) are still out
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jberryhill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:49 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. +224 now
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Viking12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 10:54 AM
Response to Original message
8. No matter what the count is, the race will ultimately be decided by recount
Edited on Wed Apr-06-11 10:54 AM by Viking12
With a 0.01% margin, it is all but guaranteed.
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demwing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. you betcha!
but we WANT the headline. Still waiting on three precincts...
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Viking12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. True enough. It's advantageous to go into the recount with the lead.
Edited on Wed Apr-06-11 11:29 AM by Viking12
Especially, on a PR level.
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