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My Final Projection on Wisconsin

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louis c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:08 AM
Original message
My Final Projection on Wisconsin
I need to go to sleep, but here's my projection. I've taken the total vote in the outstanding counties and divided it into the precincts for that county. I got the total per precinct and multiplied that by the number of outstanding precincts in that county. I then used the current percentage in that county to project that margin for the candidate. Kloppenburg will get another 260 vote margin in Dane county and another 700 vote margin in Milwaukee County. Prosser will get anther 700 vote margin in Marathon. Oconto and Dunn will cancel each other out. That will leave Eau Claire to decide this thing. Our candidate will enter that County trailing by about 1,500 votes. By extrapolating the remaining votes in that county, she should add 2680 votes to her margin and win by just over 1,000.

Let's see how good I did.
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Hardrada Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:09 AM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks. Sounds good to me.
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louis c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:12 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. As I typed this, Marathon is in.
Edited on Wed Apr-06-11 01:14 AM by louis c
and it underperformed my projection for Prosser. There are now 46 precincts unreported and all but one of them are for Koppenburg.

She's down by 2,000, but she should make that up with the remaining outstanding votes.

Link to AP:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_co...
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liberalla Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:25 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. Thank you so much for your analysis - I really hope she wins this.
:dem:
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louis c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 02:00 AM
Response to Reply #1
16. Here's what's remaining
Kloppenburg has 32 of the 34 remaining precincts in counties that she's carried. She's currently down by 585 votes. The precincts breakdown this way. 7 precincts in which she carried the county with better than 70%. 2 Precincts in which she has carried the county with 60%. 12 precincts in which she carried the county by 57%. 10 precincts in which she carried the county by 55% and 1 precinct in which she carried the county by 52%. Prosser has 2 precincts for which he's waiting. 1 precinct is in a county he carried with 60% and the other is at 58%.

I like our chances.
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elleng Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 02:28 AM
Response to Reply #16
17. So do I. G'nite!
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midnight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:09 AM
Response to Original message
2. Good night and Good luck to Joanne..
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:10 AM
Response to Original message
3. Sleep well. May you be correct!
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elleng Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:10 AM
Response to Original message
4. Yes, lets see. Good work.
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Jumping John Donating Member (597 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:16 AM
Response to Original message
6. But he forgot Ashland that should also go to Kloppenburg, right?.....nt
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elleng Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:34 AM
Response to Reply #6
12. Yes, should:
22/28
29% 1,037
71% 2,504

And grand total, at the moment:

3596/3630 precincts
50% 733,074 Pross
50% 732,489 Klop
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louis c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 06:26 AM
Response to Reply #6
18. 32 of 34 pcts in Dem districts
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:20 AM
Response to Original message
7. I hope you are correct!
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elleng Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:26 AM
Response to Original message
9. Eau Claire is in:
11,214 42% Pross
15,688 58% Klop
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murielm99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:30 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. OMG!
Are you sure?
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elleng Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:35 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. AP has it::
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louis c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:30 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. My recalculation is we'll win by 2,000
Kloppenburg is over performing my projections.
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elleng Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:37 AM
Response to Reply #11
14. SO HAPPY you're still awake, to see this!
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louis c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 01:41 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. There are just 34 precincts left
and all but one of them is in a Dem stronghold. We have to make up 500 votes. I was worried early, but not now.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 06:30 AM
Response to Reply #15
20. Thanks n/t
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jimlup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-06-11 06:29 AM
Response to Original message
19. Anyone in Wisconsin awake enough to know the results yet?
I'm crossing my fingers.
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