Analysts warn air strikes on ground forces will be dangerous (AP)

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http://www.boston.com/news/world/africa/articles/2011/03/19/analysts_warn_air_strikes_on_ground_forces_will_be_dangerous/

Analysts warn air strikes on ground forces will be dangerous
By Slobodan Lekic

BRUSSELS — An allied effort to implement a no-fly zone over Libya will almost certainly establish quick superiority over Moammar Khadafy’s outdated air force. But diplomats and analysts — relying on lessons learned from NATO’s intervention in the Balkans in the 1990s — caution that any attempts to launch air strikes against ground forces would be far more dangerous and could result in serious losses...

If Khadafy’s war planes were to flout the UN flight ban, analysts say, they would almost certainly be shot to pieces. Since the 1980s, chaotic purchases of equipment, poor maintenance, and inadequate training have shrunk his fleet of more than 400 fighter-bombers, light attack jets, and helicopter gunships to a few dozen aircraft. What remains are mostly Sukhoi Su-22 and Mig-23 fighter bombers, as well as Yugoslav-made Jastreb light strike jets dating from the late 1960s — several of which have already been destroyed by insurgents, or flown out of the country by defecting pilots.

Outside of its fighter craft, the regime has a handful of operational interceptors, such as the MiG-21 and MiG-25, also dating from the 1960s. Its long-range air defenses are in a similar state, relying on 200 missile launchers long considered obsolete. A recent report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies said the air force has also had major pilot training problems and lost a number of its aircraft to accidents and other attrition. “Libya seems to have had a serious shortage of even mediocre combat pilots,’’ it stated.

What worries NATO planners, however, are Libya’s plentiful antiaircraft guns and light, short-range shoulder-launched missiles — systems which proved very effective against NATO aircraft during the Kosovo war, said a diplomat who asked not to be identified. These include about 500 cannons of various calibers, which could prevent allied aircraft from descending lower than 15,000 feet, said the diplomat who asked not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media. In Kosovo, a majority of bombing missions had to be carried out from higher altitudes beyond the reach of the Serbian guns. Other problems may come from Khadafy’s several dozen Mil Mi-17 helicopters and Mi-24 gunships. As experiences in Bosnia have shown it’s very difficult for fast and high flying jets to intercept ground-hugging helicopters...