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rdking647 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 09:46 AM
Original message
why fukushima cant be chernobyl
to counter the media fueled hysteria heres a great article explaining wht fukushima cant be another chenobyl. It doesnt say there is no danger but explains why another chernobyl isny possible there

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20257-why-fukushima-daiichi-wont-be-another-chernobyl.html?full=true

key parts of the article

But at the moment the reactors themselves seem to be largely under control and are cooling rapidly. The control rods, which absorb neutrons and dampen down the nuclear reactions, have been in since Friday, and the reactors have been suffused with seawater laced with boric acid – another neutron absorber. Because of the reactors' negative void coefficients, the nuclear reactions cannot now restart unless those actions are reversed. "There is no scope for there to be criticality," Bluck says.

Meltdown would only become possible if, for some inexplicable reason, the operators were to undo all they have done to date to control the reaction.

The biggest threat now seems to be the spent fuel ponds, where the water level has fallen and temperatures have risen. That could lead to the fuel rods breaking open, releasing their radioactive contents.

Bluck is surprised that the ponds are proving so problematic, because unlike the reactor cores they contain no high-pressure steam making it hard to pump in cooling water. The ponds are a standard feature of nuclear facilities, and are typically designed to ensure that nuclear reactions cannot restart in the fuel rods: among other things, the rods should be widely spaced in the pond.

However, the company operating Fukushima Daiichi has now said that, for the fuel pond at reactor 4, "the risk of recriticality is not zero", meaning a nuclear chain reaction could restart in the rods. Quite how this has come about is unclear. But adding boric acid to absorb the neutrons should stop the reaction before it starts.


yes its bad but its nowhere near a chernobyl type accident


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ReturnoftheDjedi Donating Member (839 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 09:48 AM
Response to Original message
1. no, it could be 6 times worse. there was only 1 reactor at Chernobyl.
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NeedleCast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. It could be a million, brazillion times worse!
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ReturnoftheDjedi Donating Member (839 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 10:08 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. so, you deny that there are 6 reactors and much more than 6 times the Nuclear material as Chernobyl?
Snark doesn't shield you from radiation.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 09:51 AM
Response to Original message
2. The reactors are relatively stable (assuming pumps hold). The larger issue is the fuel ponds.
Edited on Fri Mar-18-11 09:54 AM by Statistical
Specifically #1 and #4. #4 is dry and there is no temp or water data for #1 so it could be dry also.

"However, the company operating Fukushima Daiichi has now said that, for the fuel pond at reactor 4, "the risk of recriticality is not zero", meaning a nuclear chain reaction could restart in the rods. Quite how this has come about is unclear. But adding boric acid to absorb the neutrons should stop the reaction before it start"

What the author seems to not realize is they can't get close enough to #4 to even put water back in much less boron. Water is an excellent blocker of radiation 20 ft of water will block 99.9999% of source radiation. With the water gone the exposure around the fuel pond is lethally high. The physical temperature is also extreme. Even without criticality (which is extremely unlikely even under even the worst conditions) without water eventually the fuel rods will ignite and then the rising spoke will disperse radioactive fallout over a large area. If there is an explosion it could be thrown even higher.

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WannaJumpMyScooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 09:53 AM
Response to Original message
3. unless, of course, they are lying
which, as we all know, is unheard of
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 09:54 AM
Response to Original message
4. Not too comforting.
Edited on Fri Mar-18-11 09:55 AM by Wilms
"Bluck is surprised that the ponds are proving so problematic"

How about a huge enough leak in the pool the drain rate of which exceeding the ability to refill?


The ponds are a standard feature of nuclear facilities, and are typically designed to ensure that nuclear reactions cannot restart in the fuel rods...

OK for "typically". Now how about specifically? Are these ponds so organized...or not?

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Motown_Johnny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
5. the risk of recriticality is not zero
So maybe the word "can't" is a poor choice.



If the worst were to happen at the fuel pond at reactor 4, wouldn't the radiation then be so high as to prevent workers from continuing to make repairs to other nearby reactors?


And might this not cause further problems with water in other fuel ponds evaporating until they also have the possibility of reaching recriticality?




I will agree that the odds are against any of this happening, much less all of it, but if the risk is not zero then the word "can't" isn't applicable.
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Hugabear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 10:02 AM
Response to Original message
6. According to Michio Kaku, it could be much worse
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rdking647 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 10:12 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. kaku is a theroetical physicist
bluck is an engineer

ill take the word of an engineer over a theoretical physicist
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villager Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #9
13. well, in this case, you've made it clear you'll have to
n/t
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quinnox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 10:13 AM
Response to Original message
10. we shall see
but the latest news it just keeps getting worse. Its hard to pretend things aren't looking grim at this moment.
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jannyk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 10:16 AM
Response to Original message
11. 'Cooling Rapidly'??? Please provide a link to that particular info
Edited on Fri Mar-18-11 10:17 AM by jannyk
Here's the Japan PM's statement of a few hours ago, If they were cooling rapidly, don't you think he might have mentioned it?

Prime Minister Naoto Kan said Friday that Japan's nuclear crisis still does not allow for optimism, but that he believes the problems evolving at the Fukushima Daiichi power station following last week's calamitous earthquake and tsunami will be resolved soon.
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/79442.html

No mention of the miraculous 'rapid cooling in TepCo's own statement either -

"TEPCO's office in Fukushima says that following the cooling attempts, radiation levels fell slightly 500 meters northwest of the No. 3 reactor.
It says post-operation readings taken as of 2:50 PM stood at 3,339 microsieverts per hour, compared to 3,484 microsieverts at 1:50 PM, before the work began. TEPCO cautioned that the decline is small and a close analysis is needed before any judgment can be made about the effects of the operation."
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/18_37.html


<<Bluck is surprised that the ponds are proving so problematic,>>

These fuckers are always 'surprised' - they have so much overconfidence and ego - they won't even admit to the potential of a 'failure' and that's why they fail!

I call pure BS. Bluck Off!!

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fascisthunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 10:16 AM
Response to Original message
12. dur
nice try... bye
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jannyk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 10:58 AM
Response to Original message
14. Today's Reactor Status. Point me to the 'Rapidly Cooling' Segment
Fukushima Daiichi plant

-- Reactor No. 1 - Operation suspended after quake, cooling failure, partial melting of core, vapor vented, building housing reactor damaged Saturday by hydrogen explosion, roof blown off, seawater being pumped in.

-- Reactor No. 2 - Operation suspended after quake, cooling failure, seawater being pumped in, fuel rods fully exposed temporarily, vapor vented, building housing reactor damaged Monday by blast at reactor No. 3, blast sound heard near suppression pool of containment vessel on Tuesday, damage to containment vessel feared.

-- Reactor No. 3 - Operation suspended after quake, cooling failure, partial melting of core feared, vapor vented, seawater being pumped in, building housing reactor damaged Monday by hydrogen explosion, high-level radiation measured nearby on Tuesday, plume of smoke observed Wednesday and presumed to have come from spent-fuel storage pool, seawater dumped over pool by helicopter on Thursday, water sprayed at it from ground on Thursday and Friday.

-- Reactor No. 4 - Under maintenance when quake struck, temperature in spent-fuel storage pool reaching 84 C on Monday, fire Tuesday possibly caused by hydrogen explosion at pool holding spent fuel rods, fire observed Wednesday at building housing reactor, pool water level feared receding, renewed nuclear chain reaction feared, only skeleton of building survived the fires.

-- Reactors No. 5, 6 - Under maintenance when quake struck, water temperatures in spent-fuel storage pools increased to about 64 C on Thursday.

-- Spent-fuel storage pools at all reactors - Cooling functions lost at all reactors, water temperatures or levels unobservable at reactors No. 1 to 4.
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/79398.html
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Bandit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 11:19 AM
Response to Original message
15. Never say never..
What if another 9.0 quake were to hit?
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-18-11 12:17 PM
Response to Original message
16. This has been the nuke industry's main "talking point" from the beginning.
I wouldn't be surprised if they have a "war room" in some high rise in NYC or Washington DC tracking how many times they succeed in getting "this can't be Chernoybl" into the newsstream and the bloggerstream. And you can probably gage how bad Fukushima is by their having decided to resurrect "Chernoybl" in the public's mind--an event that the nuke industry's P.R. divisions had worked so hard to send into oblivion. It was a bold move to reignite the horrors of "Chernoybl" as a way to dampen people's totally sensible fear of nuclear power, as explosion after explosion, and fire after fire, and damaged core after damaged core, occurs in Fusushima, with the obvious imminent risk of not one but SIX "Chernoybls" all packed closely together at one site.

Chernoybl had obvious design flaws some of which have been corrected in other nuke plant designs. We're looking at the failure of one of those corrections in the blown off roofs at Fukushima, of the outer containment structures in two of its plants and the blown out wall of another. So much for keeping the radioactive material of the "spent fuel pools" and damaged cores out of the atmosphere. We're looking at another correction in the backups for the water pumping systems, all of which got blown out by the earthquake/tsunami, last Friday, creating the situation today, a week later, of at least two damaged reactor cores, several fires in "spent fuel pools," on-going release of radioactive steam and plain threat of a conflagration at the site that could send all of the nuclear material in six reactor cores and six "spent fuel pools" into the atmosphere.

Another correction was the suppression chamber under the reactor cores. At least one of them has been damaged. Furthermore, parts of the Fukushima facility have become so "hot" that workers can't even get near some of its plants to know what exactly has occurred and to try to cool it down.

Fukushima's most obvious design flaw is storing the "spent fuel" rods in the same building as the reactor core, rather than burying them in concrete/steel casements far away from the reactors. Another is the close packing together of the reactors/spent fuel pools at one site. (Both of these were "cost-saving" measures.) Another was failure to understand--or failure to care--that a 9.0 earthquake/tsunami could happen in Japan, one of the most earthquake-prone countries on earth. This earthquake/tsunami just blew most of Fukushima's safety features away, in one fell swoop.

The nuke industry is touting "it can't be Chernoybl" on the bet that Japanese engineers and workers can prevent the worst case scenario--general conflagration--by suicide. And then they hope that the rest of us will forget what these workers had to do, to keep Japan from becoming a waste land, poisoning swaths of the Pacific Ocean and sending toxic clouds of nuclear radiation to other countries. We won't know them when they die. We won't know others when they die who were not evacuated soon enough or far enough. In addition, impacts from the radioactive steam clouds that have already been released and are still being released are unknown and it is very likely that nuke-invested governments, including our own, are lying about them.

The nuke industry is placing this bet--mentioning "Chernoybl" and its horrors upfront, as the "bogeyman"--BECAUSE the worst case scenario is so possible. As each stage of this horror is followed by the next, they want us to think, "Everything's okay, it's not yet Chernoybl." They want to be able to say, "See, nuclear power is safe because they stopped it from becoming Chernoybl." And even unto the final conflagration--if, God forbid, that occurs--they will be saying this--"can't be Chernoybl," "not yet Chernoybl." And they will be saying it through the months and years of struggle to "contain" this disaster to a Level 6 nuclear disaster ( "Chernoybl" being Level 7), and all the contamination that that will mean, causing many non-dramatic illnesses and deaths, here and there, and poisoning of Japanese and other fisheries over many decades. (Where is all that sea water being used to flush these nuclear plants going?!) A slow-moving rather than dramatic, "Chernoybl"-like disaster, which will be portrayed as a victory--a vindication, reason for celebration, license to build more nuclear plants everywhere for the profit of the few at the risk of all life in the vicinity of each plant and all life on earth.

The truth is that there is no way to make nuclear power "safe" anywhere. That is the truth that the nuke industry does not want you to think about. They rattle "Chernoybl" in your face as a distraction. But we are looking at six times Chernoybl, as the worst case, at Fukushima, and Level 6 as the "best case" (on-going pollution and death at a slower pace). The RISK of nuclear power is not a one-off risk--of 10 workers or a 100 workers' lives, or loss of a power facility or long term, remediable pollution (such as coal). The risk is unremediable, very long term, massive destruction of life on earth. That is a risk that we should not be taking, and, if not for the filthy corruption in this industry and our governments, we would not be taking it.

And Japan is by no means "contained" at a Level 6 right now. The risk (as with Chernoybl) is fire. Fire is by no means under control at Fukishima, and even if a water pumping system is restored, the fragility of water pumping infrastructure at nuke plants has already been demonstrated (what if another earthquake hits, or gages, valves and vents continue failing? --nuclear fuel needs CONSTANT water cooling, with tons and tons of water). This situation could easily and quickly go to Level 7--massive exposure of people and sea life.
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