I just watched PM Kan prepare the Japanese people for something bad

[kristopher]

He told the Japanese people in a Sunday afternoon address that Japan was facing the toughest, most difficult crisis in the 65 years since WWII. He asked them for their understanding and warned of coming "planned" power shut downs in Tokyo for an unknown duration.

He then turned the mic over to a Mr. Edano (Chief Cabinet Secretary) who briefed on reactor 3. He stated "About #3 reactor in Fukushima Power Plant. A short while ago they started the sea water injection into the reactor and the level of water has risen. It has risen to a certain level and then it seems that the gauge is showing the level of water is not going up however the supply of water continues. We do not know what to make of this fact. Yesterday ever since the explosion in the #1 reactor the situation like this is continuing, now #3 reactor vault might be showing some failure. And the failure in the vault has to be solved and the air pressure inside has to be lowered (said forcefully). And currently the radiation monitor hasn't shown any change. That is the situation in reactor #3."

Asked for details he added that "it is possible there is a malfunction of the valve to remove the air, we are trying resolve this issue right now". Don't let this phrasing fool you, it is a statement that there is a problem with the relief valve and they can't vent the pressure.

They seem frightened and emotional.

To appreciate this it might help to know that when someone is ill and dying there they are not informed of their disease nor prognosis. Instead they are told by family and doctor that they are suffering some temporary malady that will pass soon enough with the proper care.

Some things can't be hidden however and the sick person understands from the circumstances and people's behavior that there is a real problem. They rarely pursue their suspicions, instead they trust the judgment of the significant others in their life to ensure their well being to the extent possible.

Watching this I was left with the feeling that was the type of message that had been conveyed. I think they are in a race between the pressure limits of containment and how fast they can cool the core. IMO It is a race they do not think they can win.

[somone]

1. Very bad news

[HCE SuiGeneris]

2. K & R

:scared:

[boobooday]

3. Oh no, this is terrible news

Your analysis is thoughtful and very enlightening.

My heart goes out to them. I hope that they find an answer.

It could happen here.

[KittyWampus]

4. How do you get from the top floor on a high-rise down to the street? Crappers.

to clarify- I hope they contain the nuclear mess.

Regarding the people across the cities and blackouts> not easy to endure.

[annabanana]

5. Oh dear.

not good

[DCKit]

6. Newcuelur will save us all... until it doesn't.

Where are the pro-nukes today????

We won't forget this incident(s), nor will we "let it go".

Jeebus, I'm not even really anti-nuke, just anti-poor oversight and safety. Sorry if I've led you all along for the past two years.

[tavalon]

12. This is going to have longterm ramifications and start a conversation

that needs to happen. But tonight and the last few days, we just have to care and love and send whatever we can to help.

[Teaser]

16. agreed.

unfortunately, we just can't shut down all reactors right now. Too much of our energy infrastructure depends on it.

We really need some kind of out of the box energy thinking. Not getting it from anywhere.

[kristopher]

18. Agree, but it is time to stop digging the hole any deeper

From a presentation by John Holdren.

The nuclear option: size of the challenges

• If world electricity demand grows 2% /year until 2050 and nuclear share of electricity supply is to rise from 1/6 to 1/3...
–nuclear capacity would have to grow from 350 GWe in 2000 to 1700 GWe in 2050;
– this means 1,700 reactors of 1,000 MWe each.

• If these were light-water reactors on the once-through fuel cycle...
---–enrichment of their fuel will require ~250 million Separative Work Units (SWU);
---–diversion of 0.1% of this enrichment to production of HEU from natural uranium would make ~20 gun-type or ~80 implosion-type bombs.

• If half the reactors were recycling their plutonium...
---–the associated flow of separated, directly weapon - usable plutonium would be 170,000 kg per year;
---–diversion of 0.1% of this quantity would make ~30 implosion-type bombs.

• Spent-fuel production in the once-through case would be...
---–34,000 tonnes/yr, a Yucca Mountain every two years.

Expanding nuclear enough to take a modest bite out of the climate problem is conceivable, *but* doing so will depend on greatly increased seriousness in addressing the waste-management & proliferation challenges.

Mitigation of Human-Caused Climate Change
John P. Holdren

What does he say about renewables?

The renewable option: Is it real?

SUNLIGHT: 100,000 TW reaches Earth’s surface (100,000 TWy/year = 3.15 million EJ/yr), 30% on land.
Thus 1% of the land area receives 300 TWy/yr, so converting this to usable forms at 10% efficiency would yield 30 TWy/yr, about twice civilization’s rate of energy use in 2004.

WIND: Solar energy flowing into the wind is ~2,000 TW.
Wind power estimated to be harvestable from windy sites covering 2% of Earth’s land surface is about twice world electricity generation in 2004.

BIOMASS: Solar energy is stored by photosynthesis on land at a rate of about 60 TW.
Energy crops at twice the average terrestrial photosynthetic yield would give 12 TW from 10% of land area (equal to what’s now used for agriculture).
Converted to liquid biofuels at 50% efficiency, this would be 6 TWy/yr, more than world oil use in 2004.

Renewable energy potential is immense. Questions are what it will cost & how much society wants to pay for environmental & security advantages.

Mitigation of Human-Caused Climate Change
John P. Holdren

John P. Holdren is advisor to President Barack Obama for Science and Technology,
Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and
Co-Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology...

Holdren was previously the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University,
director of the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program at the School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and
Director of the Woods Hole Research Center.<2>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Holdren

[tavalon]

26. I think most are too shocked right now

I think we'll see mobilization of some good ideas in the early of next week. I hope?

[roguevalley]

24. someone says there will be a big earthquake in the next three

daze. I am sick for the whole suffering world. fuck nuclear energy. NO MORE! How ironic that japan is having this happen to them.

[MadMaddie]

28. We are supposed to have one of the same magnitude on the

West Coast.....sigh...

[enough]

7. I remember during TMI, officials were obviously frightened, confused, and trying to pretend

everything was under control.

This situation, where they have already experienced a crippling earthquake and overwhelming tsunami, must mean that they are in a state of mental and emotional shock. What they are dealing with here is almost inconceivable.

[PA Democrat]

8. tepco plans to use seawater to cool a THIRD reactor at Fukushima I

Japan's Tokyo Electric Power Co (tepco) is preparing to put sea water into the No 2 reactor at Fukushima Daiichi, or Fukushima 1, power station, Reuters reports. It has already been pouring water into reactors No 1 and 3 to try to cool them.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

[denem]

9. If translated correctly the Japanese government is zig zagging

like a punch drunk boxer.

I've been bitten before by what they are reported to have said. Meltdown / No Meltdown. If he comes back with the idea of a 60 km exclusion zone again, i'll pay attention.

[tavalon]

11. Turn off the sound

Watch his face closely. Even though Japanese folks often hide their emotions well, I suspect you'll know more than you did before.

[tavalon]

10. Please could you link this?

BBC is doing an endless rerun.

[kristopher]

14. Link what? It is my transcript.

I transcribed what the NHK translator uttered, and both my wife and I listened to ensure the translator was accurate. She was. She was also crying towards the end, I believe.

[bananas]

22. Kristopher, I know this hits you particularly hard. nt

[Lucinda]

17. I saw it several hours ago online...they haven't rerun it fully since then

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

You can probably find the text at the link

[Lucinda]

23. It's on cnn's main website now

http://www.cnn.com/

[Pamela Troy]

30. This link tells us nothing.

WHERE on the website? What title should we look for.

[Lucinda]

32. It WAS the video on the main page - and easily identified

Perhaps it isn't now?

[MrsBrady]

13. well, it's 10:30 at night there now while I type this at

8:30 am central March 13th.

so if that talk was given in the afternoon Japanese local time, about 10 hours ago...what's happening since then.

do you have a link for this?

[kristopher]

15. Sorry I lost track of the time, it was 8pm Japan time.

I did the transcript myself, no link but you can probably catch watch the broadcast on NHK or the networks.

[madrchsod]

19. building nuke plants anywhere on the ring of fire is insane

how many are there on the west coast of the usa?

[MadMaddie]

29. Agreed!

But if you talk about science and facts etc the nasayers turn a blind eye....that is until it hits....

Our infrastructure is in much worse shape than Japans.....it won't withstand a disaster of this proportion.

[tblue37]

20. I finally heard back from a Japanese friend that she and her family are safe, but now

I wonder for how long? This is really scaring me.

[kristopher]

21. I have loved ones in Tokyo and I'm worried as you are.

We'll see.

[lonestarnot]

25. Fucking A.

[MadMaddie]

27. This proves once again that no country can have 1 source of

energy, especially volitale energy.

There is no way they could have predicted an earthquake of this magnitude and then a catastrophic Tsunami.

We need to invest in scientist to work on additional alternative energy sources.

Japan is in serious trouble...

[Rex]

31. Let us hope you are wrong and that is not the case.

That they are being emotional because the entire nation is in full crisis mode and all the decades of hard work are falling apart at the moment, not something easily stomached my anyone imo. I know someone that is terminally ill and about to die in a week or two...the doctors told her upfront what was wrong, no lies or weasel words and now there is nothing left to be done but go home and die. :(

At least she knows what is killing her, the Japanese are in the same boat. They are looking at their mortality eye to eye and if a little crying helps ease the pain, then so be it. I have complete faith in the Japanese and I know they will find a way to save the day.

I just know it.