Warren Buffett backs the nation's big push for electric cars, but........

[marmar]

......the nation is China.



from Grist:




China just announced plans to build 1 million electric cars per year. Let's put that in perspective: In Obama's State of the Union Address, he said the U.S. should shoot for 1 million electric vehicles on the road by 2015, total.

Here's the really crazy part of this equation: a panel of U.S. auto industry experts thinks Obama's plan is "too ambitious," and that automakers are unlikely to meet that goal because of "uncertain consumer demand." (As Todd Woody reported for Grist, the U.S. Department of Energy disagrees, arguing that 1 million by 2015 is in fact a conservative goal.)

China's domestic market for vehicles is enormous, but not enough to absorb 1 million (initially relatively expensive) electric vehicles per year. So where are they going to go? Well, maybe you'll be driving one. You and you and you and ... you! Reuters:

BYD Co Ltd, a Chinese car and battery maker backed by Warren Buffett, expects to enter the mass U.S. auto market in the first quarter of 2012, starting with its e6 electric car model, its chairman said on Monday.

The Wizard of Omaha is backing a Chinese electric car manufacturer? You bet -- Buffet knows which side his toast is buttered on. The side with money. BYD is already the world's largest manufacture of cell phone batteries. Since the battery is the single most expensive part of an electric car, this gives it a potentially unassailable leg up in the race to make electric vehicles cost-competitive with gasoline-powered ones, reports The Guardian: .............(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.grist.org/article/2011-02-18-china-to-blow-the-doors-off-obamas-candy-ass-electric-car-progra

[dmallind]

1. And that's not a problem.

Why?

1)Reducing fossil fuel usage anywhere helps everywhere. How many environmentalists have pointed out the dangers of the huge new middle classes in China and India clamoring for cars?

2)A country of 310M should not be compared to one of 1.4B in raw numbers of anything.

3)China is still a command economy no matter how capitalist. If the gov't wants one million EVs made they will be made, with no thought to payback period, capacity ramp up/changeover costs, safety reviews or market demand. The US does not allow such unilateral fiats.

4) Right now the limiting factor in EVs in the US market is capacity, including that constrained by Japanese internal politics. The waiting list for Leafs, the only pure EV on the mass market, is over a year. Same for niche makers like Tesla. Even the serial hybrid Volt has a huge waiting list and pent up demand in non-rollout states. Once everybody gets capacity online in next 18-24 months, and once silly trivialities like range anxiety, a true problem for a small minority of buyers, and paranoia over temperature, a true problem for essentially nobody - are shown to be such by personal experience, output will be able to match demand, which will increase exponentially as super-early adopters spread the word to the market followers.