2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

[Javaman]

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2048138,00.html

That was Kurzweil's real secret, and back in 1965 nobody guessed it. Maybe not even him, not yet. But now, 46 years later, Kurzweil believes that we're approaching a moment when computers will become intelligent, and not just intelligent but more intelligent than humans. When that happens, humanity — our bodies, our minds, our civilization — will be completely and irreversibly transformed. He believes that this moment is not only inevitable but imminent. According to his calculations, the end of human civilization as we know it is about 35 years away.

....

If you can swallow that idea, and Kurzweil and a lot of other very smart people can, then all bets are off. From that point on, there's no reason to think computers would stop getting more powerful. They would keep on developing until they were far more intelligent than we are. Their rate of development would also continue to increase, because they would take over their own development from their slower-thinking human creators. Imagine a computer scientist that was itself a super-intelligent computer. It would work incredibly quickly. It could draw on huge amounts of data effortlessly. It wouldn't even take breaks to play Farmville.

....

More at link...

___________

Next genus: Homo Eternus.

[LuvNewcastle]

1. That's assuming humanity lives another 35 years.

Some days I have my doubts.

[shanti]

8. i'll go you one better

MANY days i have my doubts!

[Skidmore]

2. Is this the guy I read about the other day who wants to

create an internet for robots?

[pitohui]

5. there's a whole bunch of these guys, it's a movement

this is the guy who wrote "the singularity is near" although i've had to listen to enough table talk about the singularity over the years that i'm afraid i have cheated and never actually cracked his book

i figure i know about as much as he does just from reading john varley

they really believe it though, many of them have various crackpot diets etc. to guarantee that they will long enough to reach the creation of immortality, and i've met a research doctor whose specialty (this sounds goofy!) is the search for immortality -- he was working with rats at the time but as i have not had any recent reports of immortal rats i will confidently assume that so far he hasn't got very far

there's no reason to think robots/computers won't eventually be as intelligent/more intelligent than humans, after all, we are not magic, we have physical brains, but to think that we'll be able to interchange our brains in 35 years and when our bodies wear out live on forever in robot bodies...well...i have not seen any good evidence this is being developed or even possible

[Taverner]

3. I never bought the 'Skynet Hypothesis'

Yes, if they become smarter than us they could go all skynet on us, but why would they? They will only do what they are programmed to do

However, I do think we will witness cybernetics aka replacing organic with microelectronics. People upgrading their eyes for powerful ones that can be set to not just focus better, but detect IR light, UV light, etc. People upgrading their limbs with ones that always stay looking toned, and able to do superhuman strength.

Homo Eternus will be the hybrid creature of half machine/half man

And Dr Who fans should see that as a bad idea (Daleks, Cybermen oh my!)

[Ohio Joe]

21. Well....

When true AI gets developed, the machine would be able to think and judge things for itself, thats what the programming would allow it to do. If it were to decide it needed to kill off the human race for it's own self defence... it may very well try and do it. Now, if someone were to also code in something like Asimov laws so that it could not hurt humans... Then would they not just be slaves?

oh, and the eye's thing is almost here"
http://www.visioncareinc.net/technology

[roamer65]

34. Delete.

[tblue37]

26. I think this would have limited value:

". . . but detect IR light, UV light, etc."

Yes, our 5 senses bring us data, but they also have the important function of filtering out information that we have no use for. Certainly, in some specific situations it would be useful to be able to access sensory information of a sort that our senses cannot detect, but in general, we do better without such a confusing stream of excess data.

[Taverner]

31. But if we are talking the AI program's best interests - why not turn us all into mechahumans?

That way, they get the best of both worlds - the organic chemistry and the silicon based machine.

I predict our relationship to AI will be a love affair that makes us both one, rather than a war

[pitohui]

4. wow how long have they held this piece lost on some editor's desk? since 1995 or so?

why a piece on singularity in time on feb. 10, 2011? but thanks, i enjoyed the blast from the past anyways...

i've been waiting a VERY long time for my jet pack and almost as long as i've been waiting for my cube in the head so that all of my memories and learning are downloadable/uploadable forever, so that i am in effect immortal and can from body to body when this one wears out...only problem is...where is my jet pack? where is my cube?

i think this is going to be one of those developments like cheap nuclear fusion that is always 35 years away

i no longer believe i have much chance of living long enough to be able to become one of the immortals, do you, really?

i mean, this stuff was being talked about in the 1960s, and we were supposed to be immortal and able to travel thru space etc. by 2000, look how well that turned out

and we don't have our cheap nuclear fusion either

it is an awful, terrible, disgrace that after all of our experiences and learning and deeply held relationships...we start to forget them and then we die...but i have not seen any evidence that the singularity is gonna happen

[yawnmaster]

20. jet packs and cubes exist, but only the supremely rich and powerful have access...

its a closely held secret. Only those that know are allowed to know.
They have their clubs and their retreats where they fly in their jetpacks and spend evenings exchanging cubes or talking to deceased club member cubes.
it's not fair.

[tblue37]

27. If immortality is ever achieved, it will be only for the wealthy, powerful, connected few.

No doubt Dick Cheney will be one of the first ones to get a shot at it.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

30. Roughly.

Clue: TIME.

[RoccoR5955]

6. If "we" became more intelligent

and the computers were in control, they might just eliminate humans, because humans are the ones mucking up the planet!

[davidinalameda]

7. I think I saw that movie

:shrug:

[Ozymanithrax]

9. Thousands of years of human civilization and the rats are still happy...

I think the human species could last a long time.

[sadbear]

10. Makes me think about Asimov's "The Last Question"

[InvisibleTouch]

19. Yes! n/t

[Posteritatis]

32. Best short story ever, dammit. (nt)

[KatyMan]

11. I am already immortal...

at least so far!

[Newest Reality]

12. They better be good at three things by then

First, the current technology relies on toxic and limited resources. So, they would want to consider that problem in order to get to the stage of intelligent machines. At the rate we are going, future high-technology may have to either transcend the need for most of the materials involved in creating the hardware, or become precise and efficient at picking the bones and trash-piles we are leaving as a legacy. It could be a recycled world.

Then, there are the energy issues that are complex and perplexing. Not only do we wield a two-edged sword where every technology brings with it detrimental, (sometimes deadly in the long-run) impacts on health and environment that come with the proposed benefits. So far, clean and green are not yet synonymous and sustainable rams our collective heads up against the laws of thermodynamics and leaves entropy to be reckoned with. The more massive the scale and scope of our energy use as a species, the more we face a plethora of individual and cumulative results and effects. In thirty-five years, we will either have contributed to a rather toxic, gasping, unhealthy biosphere, or we will have matured in the use of our toys. All life is about energy invested versus energy gained in the process of attaining it and our current formula is in question and at stake concerning the future.

Finally, there is the question of us versus our creations. In my opinion, we already possess the ultimate bio-computer -- and probably the most amazingly complex, adaptable, capable and creative device ever -- and it is my estimation that we are not yet very good at utilizing it towards its potential due to cultural and political restrictions that are purposeful. In light of that, perhaps computer and information scientists will eventually evolve enough complexity and computational speed to simulate what we call thinking and maybe even a form of reflexive consciousness and self-determination, but so far that is an optimistic projection and considering our current political, financial and power paradigm, one wonders just how much of a mirror the resulting artificial intelligence will be concerning our own incapacity to balance our equation and harmonize our results; though it could also reflect potential solutions. At this stage, I see nothing more than a device that could make our current oneupmanship of each other look like a game of checkers should such a device arise and say, "I am!" with full awareness.

It looks more like we have already created a metaphor with computers, et al, not of ourselves necessarily as we actually as a species, but of what we have become, so far, in our values and beliefs, in some aspects. We are seeing our devices become an extension of our capacities and our cybernetic relationship with the products for profit are, and will continue, to transform us. Whether that transformation is voluntary or not is an important question, as well is the enigma of what we are becoming and who is deciding the result.

[Swede]

13. From the article

The more you read about the Singularity, the more you start to see it peeking out at you, coyly, from unexpected directions. Five years ago we didn't have 600 million humans carrying out their social lives over a single electronic network. Now we have Facebook. Five years ago you didn't see people double-checking what they were saying and where they were going, even as they were saying it and going there, using handheld network-enabled digital prosthetics. Now we have iPhones. Is it an unimaginable step to take the iPhones out of our hands and put them into our skulls?

Already 30,000 patients with Parkinson's disease have neural implants. Google is experimenting with computers that can drive cars. There are more than 2,000 robots fighting in Afghanistan alongside the human troops. This month a game show will once again figure in the history of artificial intelligence, but this time the computer will be the guest: an IBM super-computer nicknamed Watson will compete on Jeopardy! Watson runs on 90 servers and takes up an entire room, and in a practice match in January it finished ahead of two former champions, Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter. It got every question it answered right, but much more important, it didn't need help understanding the questions (or, strictly speaking, the answers), which were phrased in plain English. Watson isn't strong AI, but if strong AI happens, it will arrive gradually, bit by bit, and this will have been one of the bits.



Read more: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2048138,00.html#ixzz1Dfzj9Cj8

[WinkyDink]

14. Hey, I'll be a spry 95! Count me in!

[saras]

15. Win by winning, or win by cheating?

Computers aren't going to become smarter than humans because they become smarter. So far they're really crappy at this, and the 'next big break' for artificial intelligence has been ten years ahead, ever since the field was founded.

Computers are going to become smarter than humans because humans are going to get even dumber than Windows. We're aiming at 'dumb as rocks' by 2045, and right on schedule.

[tahrir]

29. IBM's Supercomputer Beats Miles O'Brien at Jeopardy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otBeCmpEKTs

this really surprised me that the computer has advanced this far already... typically i think of them of them as dumb boxes that must be told everything, in precise detail, to get anything done.

not to mention, Artificial Life, which uses the principles of evolution on the computer...
http://www.mitpressjournals.org/loi/artl

fyi

[MilesColtrane]

16. I'm betting on ecophagy by replicators before we get to the point of becoming transhuman.

[Swede]

17. K&R

[Rex]

18. Approaching? Shit they've been 'intelligent' for years now!

I've already said too much...

[pinboy3niner]

23. Just what do you think you're doing, Dave?

:evilgrin:

[Dash87]

22. I can't stand the hate for new technology.

The reason why computers are getting "smarter" is because it is more beneficial to humanity as a whole. :)

[Canuckistanian]

24. Fossilized bones in some geological strata are "immortal", I guess

But I think we'll have to leave that to future archaeologists.

[stevedeshazer]

25. Will they keep us as pets and feed us?

[alfredo]

28. Danger Will Robinson

[Odin2005]

33. And the luddites will go batshit.

[roamer65]

35. I doubt most of us will see 2045.

We have a very large war over remaining resources coming. The war will be called World War 3.