Instead of: "It's going to be like Iran in '79!" How about, "It could be like Indonesia after 1998"?

[Turborama]

A lot of people are getting nervous that what's happening in Egypt and other Arab countries could result in an hard-line Islamic takeover akin to what happened in Iran at the end of the 1970s.

However, that was over 30 years ago, in a totally different information age (the exiled Ayatollah was mailing audio tapes from France to Mosques in Iran, for example) and took a year in total.

Just under 20 years later in 1998 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_Revolution_of_1998">a revolution happened in Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim majority country, and a transition from dictatorship to democracy began (known as the "Reformasi" in Indonesian). It was a revolution which overthrew a dictator who (similarly to Mubarak) had been in place for 30 years.

13 years later in Tunisia, Egypt and Algeria things are moving a lot faster due to the evolution of communication technology.

Things aren't perfect by any means in modern day Indonesia (unfortunately corruption is still rife and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Indonesia">the politics do have a mild patriarchal edge), but it is absolutely nothing like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Iran">modern day theocratic Iran.

I hope we are witnessing a "Reformasi" style transition in North Africa, and not Iranian Revolution part deux.

Edit 1, to add a couple more embedded links for reference.

Edit 2, to add the banner links below which take you to Al Jazeera English's excellent and regularly updated special coverage of what's going on in Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria.

Edit 3, to add this special documentary from Al Jazeera English that's just gone online: http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/general/2008/12/200812319221110170.html">A Nation in Waiting

And http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x547906">this very interesting discussion with 3 young Egyptians I added to the videos forum yesterday.

Egypt:
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/anger-in-egypt/">

Tunisia:
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/tunisia/">

Algeria:
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/algeria/">

[dkf]

1. Brzezinski said the danger is if the overthrow is unorganized with no leader to step in.

[hlthe2b]

2. Absolutely...

[Alamuti Lotus]

8. I find it more dangerous if some 'leader' hijacks and disposes of the movement

keeping the status quo while slightly shuffling around the window-dressing is more dangerous to the people than whatever scenario these power elites will peddle.

In this case, al-Baradei has landed to do precisely what I describe in the subject header.

[Turborama]

9. You think ElBaradei is dangerous?

If so, why?

Or did I read your post wrong?

[sabrina 1]

22. Why do you think Elbaradei is 'dangerous'?

He gained a lot of respect on the world stage for standing up to the Bush administration making it a little more difficult for them to get their Iraq War going. He was head of the IAEA and seemed like a very honest man and decent man to me.

He probably would have some standing in the world community and from what I know of him so far, would make a good, stabilizing interim leader if Mubarak falls.

After that, there would be elections and he could run along with others and let the people choose. But as an interim leader mainly because he is known to the rest of the world and respected, I think that would help the transition from dictatorship to democracy. He has been working for a more just Egypt anyhow.

[Cerridwen]

3. K & R n/t

[Catherina]

4. Recommended. It's their country, their fight, their choice, their responsibility. n/t

[eridani]

5. Those are pretty much the two alternatives

The fact that Christians are allying with Muslims in Egypt is certainly grounds for hope.

[EFerrari]

6. Not a lot of religious refs on twitter.

Seems to cut across all demographics in Egypt, any way.

[JCMach1]

7. the Islamic Brotherhood did not get this going- they are coming late to the game - TODAY

The Friday protests will be huge.

[OneGrassRoot]

10. Thank you. K&R n/t

[Turborama]

11. Thanks for the thanks!

It's always appreciated. :hi:

[Enrique]

12. or the United States in 1776 n/t

[Ratty]

13. Timely post

I was reading DU wondering if I was the only one just a bit "uneasy" about Egypt, and Iran of course came immediately to mind. Then I found myself wondering if there were any other precedents of Islamic governments being overthrown without the nutjobs taking over. And lo and behold I saw your post.

I find myself rooting for the Egyptian people against my better judgment. I can't help it. My heart wants them to succeed but there's this tiny voice in my head ...

[Motown_Johnny]

14. I hope you are correct but

culturally this part of the world is more like Iran than Indonesia. The Israeli situation matters to these people more than it does to people in the Pacific.

[Turborama]

15. The Palestinian problem matters to all Muslims

regardless of where they are from.

However, why should that be the main thing that concerns Egyptians when thinking about which direction they take? Right now they're worried about putting food in their mouths, having some dignity and a better standard of living.

FWIW Iran is Shia. Egypt and Indonesia are Sunni.

Also, Indonesia is in the Indian ocean.

[Motown_Johnny]

16. I stand corrected

But I do still feel that the existence of Israel is of more importance to people in the region.

Egypt's peace treaty with Israel may be nothing but a fond memory if this uprising succeeds.




That is not to say I am in favor of the existing government. I just think we should look at this realistically instead of simply assuming that the very best of all possibilities is the most likely.

[Turborama]

19. But Israel has nothing to do with what I was saying in the OP

"If this uprising succeeds", hopefully it's success will be an Indonesian style "Reformasi".

[sabrina 1]

25. That would be up to Israel. It might mean that Israel would

not get the free ride they've been getting regarding establishing a lasting peace and dignity and a proper homeland for the Palestinian people. There might be a more even-handed attitude towards Palestine/Israel. But from my pov, and probably that of most of the world who are pretty sick and tired of that conflict, that would be a good thing.

Meantime, Israel should not be a consideration at all right now. They are grown-ups, they will adjust. What is important now is the people of Egypt getting rid of a brutal dictatorship and establishing rights that they are entitled to. I would think Israel is far down on the list of things for the Egyptian people to be worried about right now, frankly.

Israel I am sure is smart enough to realize that they will have deal with a new Egypt where the needs of its own people come first. Mubarak put his own personal needs first. So, yes, they will have to adjust to the change and hopefully they will.

Speaking of which, if the Israeli people would throw out their far-right government which has pretty much lost Israel a lot of support around the world, and replace it with a democratic government, it would probably help the whole region to start working towards some real progress as far as a peaceful future goes for all who live in the region.

[Turborama]

26. "What is important now is the people of Egypt getting rid of a brutal dictatorship"

Yet again, the ball meets Sabrina's bat!

[David__77]

17. The Iranian revolution wasn't the problem, it was the counterrevolution that followed.

The revolution of 1979 was not a terrible event - it was a mass outpouring of revolutionary sentiment, for national independence and social solidarity. The problem is that the left capitulated to the Islamists completely, on every front. Further, the Soviet Union used Iran in a geopolitical play, and directed its political assets to support Khomenei to the very end. Quite sad, but by no means was it inevitable.

[xchrom]

18. there is a lot of anti-arab bias here. nt

[Turborama]

20. .

Kick for the 'cautious' ones who may have missed it.

[Turborama]

21. Arsalan Iftikhar Special to CNN: A 'democracy Renaissance?'

By Arsalan Iftikhar,
January 29, 2011 -- Updated 00:02 GMT

Editor's note: Arsalan Iftikhar is an international human rights lawyer, founder of TheMuslimGuy.com and legal fellow for the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding in Washington.

(CNN) -- President John F. Kennedy once said, "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."
The recent pro-democracy mass protests around the Arab world -- in places like Tunisia, Yemen and Egypt --reflect the beginnings of a "democracy Renaissance," launched by the millions of citizens within these countries that have been ruled for decades by ruthless autocrats and soft dictators.

The recent "Jasmine Revolution" in Tunisia began with the desperate act of a young unemployed man who set himself on fire. And that passionate fire would ultimately rage against the Tunisian government machine until its long-serving president would be forced into exile two weeks ago. The young man was 26-year-old Mohammed Bouazizi, an unemployed fruit stand owner who became distraught when a policewoman confiscated his unlicensed produce stand. He died from his burns.

Following suit, several other unemployed youth around the country tried to commit suicide, and subsequent mass protests would soon topple the 23-year reign of Tunisia's strongman, 74-year-old Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.

Long-standing autocratic rule within the Arab world shows a "depressingly familiar pattern" in terms of regional suppression of democracy, notes Egyptian-American writer Mona Eltahawy, in a recent Washington Post opinion piece. Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi, 68 years old, has been in power since 1969; Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh (64) has ruled since 1978 and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (82) since 1981.

Continues: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/01/28/iftikhar.egypt.protests/index.html?eref=mrss_igoogle_cnn

[cynatnite]

23. Egypt also has a treaty with Israel...

So, yes..I'm a bit concerned about the outcome for a variety of reasons. Sometimes these things don't go well at all. Revolutions can wind up being coups and situations deteriorate into worse than it was before.

Maybe this won't be taken as an opportunity to gain revenge on the outcasts and scapegoats of society. Maybe this won't be used for retaliation against ones political enemies.

I'm keeping my pom poms in the closet until I see how this plays out.

[Turborama]

24. I avoided mentioning Israel in the OP on purpose.

(Which wasn't difficult because this is meant to be about what happens inside Egypt, not what will happen to their neighbors)

The reason being because I do not want this discussion getting hijacked and end up in the I/P dungeon.

[Turborama]

27. .

:kick:

Because I think it's very useful for people to remember that Iran wasn't the last time a revolution happened in a Muslim majority country and am trying to help this from falling down the memory hole.