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When you hear about Presidential polls, remember that the popular vote is irrelevant.

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No Elephants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-12 02:26 AM
Original message
When you hear about Presidential polls, remember that the popular vote is irrelevant.
Edited on Thu May-17-12 02:32 AM by No Elephants
So are responses from people who are not going to vote anyway.

And it matters if users of cell phones and services like Vonnage and Skype are being polled.


Likely voters of all ages voting in swing states. Their vote is what I want to know about But, not yet. After Labor Day, I will pay mmore attention.

And I would like to know the precise question(s) asked, not only the poll results.

Today's pollsters are not out simply to measure public opinion, but to shape it.

And they are not out to shape it for the the benefit of the 99%.

IOW, "Illegitimi non carborundum." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegitimi_non_carborundum

But, don't get complacent, either!

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No Elephants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-12 05:42 AM
Response to Original message
1. This graphic could be a useful starting place.
http://graphics.latimes.com/2012-election-electoral-map /

My knee jerk reaction to seeing how many states are red is a downer, until I quickly remember that a majority of states is very different from a majority of people.
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No Elephants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-12 06:00 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Seven "toss up" states for 2012, per NBC:
Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, all of which President Obama won in 2008, though things will probably be tougher this time.

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-last-word/47198930#47198...

Another potentially useful graphic: http://www.270towin.com /

This map shows ten 2012 battleground states, namely, all those cited by NBC, plus New Hampshire, Iowa and Wisconsin. Obama is currently running well ahead of Romney in New Hampshire, even though he has a home there and it borders Massachusetts. I don't know how he is doing currently in Iowa and Wisconsin, but, as I stated above, it's still early.
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-18-12 07:13 AM
Response to Original message
3. Nice Post and Reminder...
Edited on Fri May-18-12 07:16 AM by KoKo
:-)'s.

I have no idea how polls can be accurate given the cell phone use today. Also we have kept our land line but have a privacy block on it. So, we don't answer for unknown callers and numbers. Between our cell phones and land line if we don't answer polls and given that so many under 50 somethings have given up land line and know how to ignore unsolicited phone calls on cell phones...it's got to be almost impossible for these pollsters. Are they polling only the elderly?

Maybe they have a way of doing it statistically with some kind of sampling amongst those they can reach...but, I still would wonder about accuracy.

Like you, though,I'll pay more attention after Labor Day. But, that still doesn't change how they would sample. :shrug:
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No Elephants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-18-12 07:29 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Thanks, Koko.
I wonder how Dewey polled before the election?

Then again, Dewey apparently polled pretty well DURING the election, until after the early editions went to press!

I guess the bottom line is that you don't let polls affect your thinking or your actions, one way or the other.

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