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Five Takeaways from CBS/NYT Poll showing Romney and Obama tied.

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No Elephants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-19-12 05:20 AM
Original message
Five Takeaways from CBS/NYT Poll showing Romney and Obama tied.
A recentpoll of registered voters showed Romney and Obama tied at 46% each. This story extrapolates more info from the poll, in five major points.

(I say a tie is baloney and they may be getting ready to steal the election.)

April 18, 2012 6:30 PM
Five takeaways from the new CBS/NYT poll

By Brian Montopoli

<snip>

Romney has Republican support - but not their love: Republicans have united around Romney, with 54 percent now saying they support him as their nominee - up from 30 percent in March, when Rick Santorum was still in the race. But after a long and bruising primary campaign, their support is grudging at best.

Just 33 percent of GOP primary voters "enthusiastically support" Romney - less than the 40 percent who say they support him with reservations. And 18 percent say they're backing Romney only because he is the nominee. (Eight percent say they don't support Romney.) The numbers are particularly bad among white evangelicals: Just 27 percent enthusiastically support Romney, while 50 percent have reservations.

The good news for Romney is that Romney still has time to define himself favorably among registered voters overall. While just 13 percent say they are undecided or need to know more about Mr. Obama to decide if they have a favorable view of them, 37 percent are undecided or haven't heard enouth about Romney. Both candidates currently have underwater favorability ratings - Mr. Obama is viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 45 percent, while Romney is viewed favorably by 29 percent and unfavorably by 34 percent - but Romney has more room to win people over. Of course, that also means the Obama campaign has room to define Romney negatively.

Obama is winning the beer test: In the past few presidential cycles, the candidate who has generally seemed more relatable - the one you'd prefer to have a beer with - has won the election. For example, think George W. Bush versus John Kerry and Al Gore, or Bill Clinton versus George H.W. Bush and Bob Dole. The rule doesn't always hold, but the candidate who voters can identify with more directly generally has a big advantage in a presidential race.


more at http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57416044-503544/...
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dtexdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-19-12 12:32 PM
Response to Original message
1. No, the rule doesn't always hold, because Gore beat Bush.
And Kerry probably beat Bush.

2000 definitely stolen in Florida
2004 probably stolen in Ohio
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No Elephants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-20-12 07:07 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Which rule?
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-21-12 06:37 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. The beer test.
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No Elephants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-22-12 05:13 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. Thanks.
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tnlefty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-21-12 08:44 PM
Response to Original message
4. I'm just grappling with the 'beer test' is what presidential politics has
degenerated into. Jeebus, I don't want to have a beer with any presidential candidate, seriously, I want policy discussion, promises they don't intend to keep (Beauty and the Beast reference), at least some sense of honesty, etc., and a vision for the country.

I would prefer to have a beer with friends and some infamous characters like Sammy 'The Bull' Gravano...okay Sammy has 3 to my 1 so I can just ask questions, and keep asking questions and hopefully get answers, but I don't want to have a beer with any presidential candidate.

However, Sec. of State Clinton seemed to be having a good time, drinking beer and dancing in Columbia, so I might make an exception for her as she's neither family, nor friend, nor presidential candidate, nor infamous character so I might enjoy a beer with her. Woman to woman and all that.
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tnlefty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-21-12 09:01 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. And from the info. in the article, I'm a misfit...
married woman who just doesn't vote for republicans, and a soccer Mom who just doesn't vote for republicans.
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No Elephants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-22-12 05:12 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Only females who are single welfare queens with six baby daddies vote for Democrats.
Well, them and sane women.
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No Elephants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-22-12 05:15 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. Are you sure she is not a Presidential candidate? I am hearing more and more
about Hillary in 2016.
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