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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 01:38 PM
Original message
Why Russia is backing Syria
While an international noose is tightening around the neck of Bashar-al Assad's regime in Syria, with Turkey this week doing most of the pulling, one country, other than Iran, is intent on bucking the trend Russia.

A day after the UN human rights council said that Syrian forces were committing crimes against humanity, and Turkey was considering imposing a buffer zone along its border to protect Syrians, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said further attempts should be made to engage with Damascus.

Lavrov opposed the idea of an arms embargo, saying it was unfair to expect the Syrian government not respond to unrest. He thought that for the most part armed opposition groups were provoking the Syrian authorities. These were not empty words.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Explains why the Syrian pposition groups have gone nonviolent - why nothing will happen from the UN on Syria as happened for Libya.

Also, the following from an earlier post, suggests that the only way out is for a peaceful resolution and for Assad to step down:

"Also, a successful Sunni rebellion would increase Turkey's regional influence, at the expense of its main rival, Iran, the region's Shia power, which has backed al-Assad's regime to the hilt. Iran and its ally, Hezbollah, on the other hand, would be loath to see a regime change empowering rival Sunnis. While Israel, for its part, would surely be quietly encouraging those factions fighting to break Syria's alliances with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas.

Iraq has a Shia-dominated government at the moment that would likely continue to support Syria's Alawite forces (and likely al-Assad if he survives).

However, there are large Sunnis communities in western Iraq and there are fears that fighters from both Shia and Sunni militias in Iraq would cross into Syria to join the proxy armies there. Both Sunni Jordan, as well as Saudi Arabia, for their own reasons, would likely want to see a change in Damascus, while even poor Lebanon, ever the loser, would find several of its own core factions inevitably drawn into a conflict that would likely flood across its border."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Any military action will last multiple years not multiple months.

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WCGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 01:57 PM
Response to Original message
1. In the end for Syria....
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss...

Things ain't gonna change all that much in the thugocracies of the middle east...

How long before Iraq gets rid of the pretenses of democracy.

I hold out hope for Egypt simply because it is the most secular of all the Muslim countries with the exception of Turkey.

If Turkey can stabilize the area, it would at least have a chance at peace.
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Egypt, Syria, Libya and Tunisia.
Egypt:
Reports say that the Salafists are up to 30% in the polls, will definitely come second if that is true. Means at least 70% of Egyptians voted for Islamist parties.

Syria:
80% Sunni. (Also, you do not speak to what Syrians have in mind.)

Libya:
Most Libyans adhere to the Sunni branch of Islam - but they are moderate. Libya and Syria revolutionaries are closely aligned.

Tunisia:
The country has a secular culture that encourages acceptance of other religions and religious freedom.

I would place my bets on Tunisia and Libya and possibly Syria. Hopefully Egypt will become moderate if they can get rid of the military mind set, and get them to be more respectful to women. They are the worst.
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WCGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 06:50 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. The military is backed by the US because they agreed to stick
with the Sadat negotiations with Israel.

It's the way I have been able to figure out.
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 10:00 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Yes, the military is backed by the US
and was influenced by the US not to shoot at the protesters - that is why it did not become like Libya and Syria.

However, in recent days, the US has called for the military to hurry up along the path to handing over to civilian rule.
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 02:33 PM
Response to Reply #1
3.  Ultraconservative Islamists make gains in Egypt
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

CAIRO (AP) Egypt's ultraconservative Islamist party said Friday it plans to push for a stricter religious code in Egypt after claiming surprisingly strong gains in this week's initial round of voting for parliament, the first elections since Hosni Mubarak's ouster.

Secular?
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