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Gallup Finds Significant Drop in Unemployment During October

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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 09:24 AM
Original message
Gallup Finds Significant Drop in Unemployment During October
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150365/Gallup-Finds-Signific...


October 27, 2011
Gallup Finds Significant Drop in Unemployment During October
Unemployment, without seasonal adjustment, fell to 8.3% in the 30 days ending Oct. 23
by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 8.3% for the 30 days ending Oct. 23 -- down sharply from 9.0% for the 30 days ending Sept. 4. Over the same period last year, Gallup's U.S. unemployment rate was steady or increasing, suggesting the lower unemployment Gallup has measured in recent weeks is not fully the result of seasonal hiring patterns. As a result, the government next week is likely to report a seasonally adjusted October unemployment rate of less than 9.0%.

See 2010 comparison to 2011 graph at link
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hobbit709 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 09:25 AM
Response to Original message
1. It's all in how you add the numbers.
Edited on Thu Oct-27-11 09:26 AM by hobbit709
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 09:32 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. so it's worse than Gallup thinks or better?
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coalition_unwilling Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #2
9. Worse. See my take in post #8 - n/t
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 09:33 AM
Response to Original message
3. Recommended
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Avalux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 09:35 AM
Response to Original message
4. They want protesters to go home....
if they tell us unemployment is going down, then it is, right? No need to be in the streets; everyone can become complacent again.

That's what the PTB wants.
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City Lights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 09:37 AM
Response to Original message
5. Oh look! A GALLUP poll with a link! What a novel idea!
Thanks! Too many here believe that putting "gallup" in the OP is enough as though the results of all of their polls are on the front page. :eyes:

:applause:
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jaxx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 09:44 AM
Response to Original message
6. K&R
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backscatter712 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 09:54 AM
Response to Original message
7. Christmas season hiring.
Note that the number is before seasonal adjustment.

With seasonal adjustment, which smooths out the Chrismas season bump in the employment rate, unemployment would be higher.
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 02:09 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. either I am dense, or what you saying is confused. Christmas
bump makes other months BETTER - because you have the added christmas season jobs.

If this 8.3 number is without seasonal adjustment, then it is only going to be even lower
after the adjustment, right?
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coalition_unwilling Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
8. The devil is in the details. I quickly skimmed the Gallup link
Edited on Thu Oct-27-11 10:00 AM by coalition_unwilling
you provided at top of thread. Nowhere in the article does Gallup explain the methodology by which it secures its figures, i.e., does it use the same criteria as the BLS, how does it sample, and so on.

As a result, what we have is an 'opinion piece' masquerading as cold, hard fact.

Notice the weasel words "Likely to report". If the government does not report lower unemployment, Gallup can backtrack and say, "We only said 'likely,' we never said 'definitely' "

I'd love for an expert in these matters to prove me wrong, but I think this article is right-wing agit prop. Gallup has a pronounced right-wing bias and a vested interest in keeping the capitalist ship afloat.

On edit: Gallup does include a section at the the bottom called 'Survey Methods." But they do not detail the questions their surveyors ask. So I stand by my first sentence except to note that Gallup samples by phone interview. But the devil is still in the details.
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. so, perhaps their motivation might be - "we thought UE was going
to drop. But it didn't. Things are worse then we thought." (making Obama look bad?)

Assuming that the actual numbers come out worse than Gallup is saying, that is.

That's a bit of stretch isn't it. I mean, they would have to think using some kind of numbers
scam against the actuals would be of benefit to those who oppose Obama. And, it would be
of more benefit than the harm their false number reporting makes them look - i.e. credibility.

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rockne Donating Member (7 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-28-11 08:56 AM
Response to Original message
12. 9% Will Be The Norm ...
for long haul, because of continuous improvements in efficiency. One example - at one time there were 1,000 workers on an auto production line. Now there are 100 and soon to be 50. Americans need to accept (or forced to take) those less desirable jobs like fruit pickers, lawn garden maintenance workers and hotel housekeepers. Put that electric fence up Herman!
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quinnox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-28-11 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
13. I'm only interested in the cold hard number
of the US unemployment rate, the rest is either speculation or propaganda. The number should be out in the first week of November sometime. Of course, if the unemployment rate somehow magically starts to see dramatic improvement up through the coming presidential election, it will seem just a bit suspicious and the numbers will have to be examined closely.

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