The future of the #Occupy and the 99% Movement(s)

[Bragi]

My prediction: the 99% Movement will continue and grow because it is absolutely on target in every way, but the Occupy movement won't because it is too vulnerable to attack by the media and the security apparatus to be tactically sustainable in the long term.

Next step after permanent Occupy sites are attacked and protesters jailed/dispersed: sporadic but constant social-media organized "Flash Protests" by the 99% Movement that will be sustainable, huge, and unstoppable.

Those be my predictive thoughts. Anyone else have any reports from gazing at their own crystal ball on this?

- B

[al bupp]

1. That would be unless an Egyptian Tahrir Square type occupation...

could be manifested. I agree that this seems unlikely in this country at this time.

[izquierdista]

4. That's why America doesn't have big public squares

Bad for business, it allows crowds of people to get together and express their opinion. The only places in America where tens of thousands of people can assemble are stadiums, where there is entertainment and concessions selling food and souvenirs. Can you think of a major American city which is build around a square where 50,000 people could turn out and listen to a speech? I can't.

on edit: Times Square? the Mall in Washington? Maybe they can hold a large number of people, but as far as the address the throngs part, they don't compare to the Tien An Min Square or the Vatican.

[Bragi]

14. Good observation

Makes me wonder whether legal protests in America are more likely to run afoul of the law if they take place on private or public property.

[occupyeverywhere]

2. I think the OCCUPY camps may draw back during the winter months

But OWS on Wall Street will maintain good numbers, then this spring the movement will explode and by summer 2012 it will be colossal.

[FarCenter]

6. Zuccotti park will be unattractive for camping in the winter

NYC gets heavy rains at just around freezing along with high winds when nor'easters start.

Last winter, the temps were lower, so instead of freezing rain, there were episodes of 1 to 2 feet of drifting snow.

Winter camping is certainly possible. A friend spent a winter during the Korean War living in a foxhole. Keep dry and use plenty of powder to keep down the sores.

[SpiralHawk]

3. Sounds like a likely scenario

fer sure...

[coalition_unwilling]

5. This seems a bit of a false distinction (between the 99% and

the Occupy Movements). I see the latter as the shock troops and vanguard of the former. It is customary during the winter months for their to be a lull in hostilities in most combat situations and this shows no sign of being ahistorical, so it would be rational to expect the winter months to see some waning of activity. But, as Mao wrote, all oppression breeds resistance. Each time an Occupy outpost is attacked, the 99% will grow and the sea within which our brave liberation forces swim will swell even further.

Sorry for the apocalyptic imagery but I think it important to counter the 'Empire Strikes Back' stuff with some imagery of our own.

N.B. Wife and I are going down to Occupy Los Angeles later today and will report back when we are home.

[Bragi]

12. Maybe, but...

(Addressed in this posting below)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=2165997&mesg_id=2166753

[FarCenter]

7. Winter woes threaten Wall Street occupiers

They put on a gritty war face and insist they are more determined now than ever, but the Occupy Wall Street campers now face the slow advance of an unrelenting enemy: the New York winter.

As freezing winds blew Friday over the epicenter of their protests, Zuccotti Park in Manhattan, the demonstrators were already huddling in significantly reduced numbers.

At night, the several hundred people who sleep on site in the financial district bundle up as best they can under plastic tarps, hunkering down in sleeping bags and emergency blankets as tents are forbidden on the plaza.

http://www.france24.com/en/20111022-winter-woes-threaten-wall-street-occupiers

[meow2u3]

23. I wouldn't put it past the Occupiers

to build igloos in the park if it snows enough. These kids are gutsy and determined to get their message across to the world regardless of the weather. And I wouldn't put it past Gloomberg to ban snow in the park. The PTB obviously thinks they can use the harsh winters to kick the Occupiers out of Zuccoti Park once and for all, but I think they're going to be in for a big surprise.

The PTB are underestimating the resourcefulness of the Occupiers, who IMO, would brave even the cold and blizzards to defy King Bloomberg, his henchmen, and the whiteshirt goons. They'll find out the hard way that when a regimented group of people, i.e., the hired thugs paid to protect the moneyed dictators, goes up against an equally determined, free group, the free people win out in the end.

[Voice for Peace]

27. Winter lasts a few months, and is followed by spring. It's not going to stop w/cold weather.

[mdmc]

8. occupy will remain

"protests" will be rare from now on. #occupy will morph into an ongoing collective of dissent..

[Bragi]

11. Possibly so

So as not to repeat/duplicate myself here, see:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=2165997&mesg_id=2166753

[doc03]

9. Pardon my ignorance but I thought they were the same. n/t

[Bragi]

10. I think this distinction is valid and useful

I find it's useful to see "The 99%" as a political movement, and #Occupy everywhere as the current political tactic (or even strategy) of the movement.

My view is that the Occupy tactic will eventually be made impossible by the media and security apparatus controlled by the 1%, but I believe the 99% movement itself won't easily be stopped, and can succeed.

The important thing about making this kind of distinction is so that people don't mistake any (likely) future tactical defeat or dispersal of #Occupy as confirmation that the movement behind this tactic has been defeated (which is exactly what the media and the right-wing claim.)

[mdmc]

29. what is this 99% movement you speak of?

[kentuck]

13. I think they will have to become more "political" to survive...

I know that most do not agree with that sentiment.

[Bragi]

15. Do you mean "political" as in "election focused"? /nt

[kentuck]

17. Absolutely!

They need to become a threat to the status quo through the ballot box. They need to be feared by both Parties.

[starroute]

22. The status quo laughs at the ballot box

Elections can be rigged, elections can be bought, voters can be disenfranchised or gerrymandered into insignificance.

Even at best, all politics is local. It turns on local issues, local candidates, and the way the local districts are drawn. Any movement that puts its hopes on elections is going to find itself fragmented, split as to priorities, and ultimately marginalized.

If you let a global movement get tangled up with questions of local zoning laws or whether candidate A once insulted candidate B's brother-in-law, you don't have a global movement anymore. If you tell the progressive minority in a regressive state that they have no role to play because they can't win elections, you don't have a people's movement anymore.

And perhaps most important, OWS is not merely a political revolution but also a revolution in consciousness. It's about rejecting hierarchical, top-down government -- which is what we have now, only slightly tempered by occasional elections and organized pressure groups. It's about grassroots, bottom-up, do-it-yourself democracy. And the "new world" that the protesters have in their sights can only be nurtured and expanded outside the ballot box.

[alberg]

16. I went to Zuccotti Park last night.

The energy was there, the passion, the commitment. I talked to a lot of folks about what’s going on and what might happen next. There is a sense of history and possibility in the air, and community and adventure and love.

Sustainable change requires three elements to succeed:

- 1.) dissatisfaction with the status quo
- 2.) vision of the desired state
- 3.) first practical steps

The first element is there is abundance. The second element is evolving in real time through countless individual conversations and the nightly General Assembly meetings. But what about step 3?

The 1% control the wealth and power in our society because they control the government. They literally own the elected representatives of both parties. The decisions our government makes are in the service of what benefits the 1%, not the majority of the citizens. For change to occur, this control structure must be broken.

How to do that? Here are 3 practical steps:

- Take the money out of the political process and remove the corrupting effects of campaign donations by instituting publicly financed elections.

- Abolish Corporate Personhood – Corporations are not citizens, they are legal fictions created to facilitate commerce. They should not enjoy the rights and freedoms of citizens.

- Institute a Financial Transaction Tax to remove the ability of the financial oligarchy from manipulating world financial markets and removing the wealth of society from productive use.

As a final thought, let’s use a General Strike to send the message that we’re serious.

Let’s pick a date sometime in 2012 and on that day we, the 99%, just sit down. That means, for one day the wheels of the big machine we call our economy just come to a stop. No violence, no hostility – just the majority saying we want change and we actually do have the power because, really, none of this works unless we go along with it. Because, you see, Ayn Rand had it wrong – Atlas is really us. If we shrug, the world stops.

Let’s make it stop so we can start it going again in the right direction.

[Bragi]

18. "Ayn Rand had it wrong – Atlas is really us. If we shrug, the world stops".

Good thought!

I agree with much of what you say, especially the idea of a general strike or some other "direct action" that could take place everywhere, in one compressed dramatic moment of time.

To some extent, I wish the OWS protest tactic had been designed so that everyone who can do so actually took off to NYC and created a huge, monster gathering there.

The problem with the tactic of doing smaller protests everywhere in support of OWS is that it unfortunately makes it easier for the 1% to isolate and break up protests, and for media and right wingers to declare the local gatherings dismal failures due to their inevitably limited size.

I think we need to be prepared to acknowledge that the tactic of telling everyone to "c'mon down, bring a tent and start permanent encampments everywhere" is almost certain to eventually fizzle out.

If it does fizzle, then I think this simply means that this particular tactic will have run it's course, but the 99% movement can and will continue and eventually succeed. I hope.

[Desertrose]

21. On Oct 28th 2011... WE SHUT THE SYSTEM DOWN.....

Passing this on:

#Occupy Yourself Movement
Oct 28th 2011

PLEASE SHARE THIS WITH AS MANY AS POSSIBLE...WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH TIME!

A momentum is occurring
People are uniting across the world
They are sending a message
The next step is fast approaching

On Oct 28th 2011
WE SHUT THE SYSTEM DOWN.

For one day we peacefully protest in a symbol that will be felt across the globe.

We step out of the system and step back into ourselves.

Turn off all lights
Unplug all electrical devices
Abstain from using TV, radio and internet or phone.
Abstain from making any purchase of any kind
Choose that morning to cancel any services you feel you no longer need
That morning call in sick to work

Do NOTHING that generates money into THE SYSTEM.

We will send a message
We will unite



Spread the word!
SHUT IT ALL DOWN!


More at link above.....

[Bragi]

25. Hmmm. My question is this.

If we do all that on Oct. 28, how exactly will it send a message, since we will be operating in isolation from each other, and there will be little-to-no observable evidence of what we all did?

(To be clear, I don't question the sincerity of those backing this form of protest, but I question the efficacy of this tactic in terms of building a social/political movement.)

[SpiralHawk]

19. wow - the unRec crew is busy busy busy

but no one can hold back the dawn.

[Bragi]

24. It is odd

It's as though some here think we shouldn't be talking about strategies for social
and political change.

[yoyossarian]

20. K&R!

Excellent thread, excellent thoughts!...
I'm kinda "I gots nuthin'!" presently, but i just woke up and need coffee...

:donut:

For now, let's eat cake!

[kentuck]

26. kick and rec!

:-)

[Bragi]

28. My subject line needs changing

It actually needs more than tuning, but since I can't change it, I do want to acknowledge that my subject line is confusing and inaccurate. Sorry about that.

It should read: "The future of the #Occupy Tactic and the 99% Movement"