So...Do you evacuate NYC? Is it ever possible (or advisable) to evacuate NYC?

[Junkdrawer]

Nasty, nasty track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911W5_NL+gif/211943W5_NL_sm.gif

[slackmaster]

1. I don't know, but I was in NYC when a post-tropical cyclone hit once

The lightning show was very impressive.

[Leopolds Ghost]

25. What they ended up doing was worse. They shut down public transit 2 days early and then told 300,000

To evacuate and that if they stayed behind in Brooklyn, Staten Island or Manhattan they "could die".

Just like in Katrina.

But you'll hear tons of people say we've learned our lesson from Katrina and promptly advocate the
same evacuation system elsewhere...

[Me.]

2. Not Me

But I live up near the park and not by the water. Also we just received a booklet from mgt. and it says bldgs. 10 stories and under are pretty safe and advise if you are in a high rise to get down to a floor below the 10th. As I'm on 7, we plan on sticking it out. But each individual should make their decision based on their particular circumstance.

[RKP5637]

6. That's interesting. I had thought most high-rises were designed for

pretty high winds, maybe not, I'm certainly no expert. I know in Boston it seems the John Hancock tower was designed for 160 mph winds. ... but there sure are a lot of older buildings in NYC. Glad to hear it seems you'll be OK. I spent a lot of time in NYC in my youth, I think I would stick it out too in your situation. As you say, however, "But each individual should make their decision based on their particular circumstance." I could see windows blowing out pretty easily in higher floors, especially in the older buildings not up to the latest codes.

[Me.]

10. Nice Post

The Mayor just said the people in Battery Park could go mostly anywhere in Manhattan and be safe. They are also opening shelters starting at 4pm tomorrow. Something people should remember (like friends of mine) if they have terraces, that furniture and pots of flowers etc. need to be taken in.

[RKP5637]

14. Yeah, that's a really important point, taking in furniture and pots of flowers etc. They

could become real missiles in high winds breaking their windows and hitting people/windows, etc. around the city. Imagine flying objects coming down from many stores up. Scary stuff.

[Me.]

15. Well Think About It This Way

Someone dropped a bottle of nail polish pit of a window and hot my friends in the head. Blood, stitches, the whole bit from a teensy bottle and the building wasn't massively tall.

[RKP5637]

16. I used to think about that when I used to spend time in NYC, we used to

talk about what just a penny could do if someone dropped one from up high. In Boston when they first built the John Hancock Tower some of the windows started falling out. For sometime they had all of the sideways roped off so you couldn't get near it. A couple of times I saw shattered glass on the sidewalk.

Oh, I can just imagine what a bottle of nail polish could so. Stay inside when the storm hits, even the initial winds!!! ... you would anyways, I'm sure.

[Me.]

21. You Know...

My favorite element is wind and I was thinking about it tonight and wondering if I dared to go out for a minute and experience the wind. Torn...

[RKP5637]

22. I guess put on a hardhat. n/t

[RKP5637]

3. Bloomberg said a decision would be made I believe tomorrow. It seems it would

be a tremendous logistics problem, car or no car. I guess if one were in a high-rise and prepared it could be handled OK. I've been through these but it was always in a one story house and certainly not even remotely as dense as NYC. To me the flooding and the resulting lack of services would be the real problem.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. Last I checked they were thinking lower laying burroughs

still a NASTY logistics problem... either way the recovery phase could be interesting.

Best of luck

[lob1]

5. I doubt it can be evacuated.

I really don't know, but I do know if they tried to evacuate Los Angeles, it'll be a massive traffic jam with no one going anywhere. It's almost that bad now on any three-day week end.

[AndyTiedye]

7. New York City Has Much Better Public Transport than LA

Particularly if they only needed to move people from low-lying areas within the city to higher ground within the city,
that would be doable.

[necso]

8. Dunno.

Areas that might be subject to storm-surge (which can propagate up waterways) are an obvious concern. And structures that might not stand up to hurricane-force winds also come to mind. Flooding from the rain could also be an issue.

A lot depends on the precise path, strength of the hurricane at various points, which only time (and hindsight) will make clear.

Hurricanes can strengthen and weaken, and they can change course pretty dramatically. And hurricanes can weaken fairly quickly, especially when moving into unfavorable conditions.

If the next landfall happens as the storm weakens (or at least before it strengthens), it dissipates considerably over land, and it doesn't reform (strengthen) well thereafter, then the threat to NYC might be considerably less than the worst-case scenario, even if the storm stays on the predicted path (which it may not; prediction is a matter of probabilities, of "knowledge" built into the models).

Personally, since a certain amount of scientific (and other) judgement is involved, I like to check the thoughts of those experts whose judgement I've learned to value (not to put anyone on the spot).

Also:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov is a good site.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov gives local weather predictions, advisories.

[HereSince1628]

9. Yes, very bad track...n/t

[adigal]

11. In The Perfect Storm in 1991, the FDR got flooded

while people were driving on it.(It is the highway on the east side of Manhattan) I think there were fatalities. Also, on Staten Island, in South Beach, Midland Beach and Oakwood, there was really bad flooding. I think they will evacuate those neighborhoods.

[MineralMan]

12. Based on the evacuation map I saw earlier today, people would

just have to get away from the water. I've walked across Manhattan several times, and I'm an old fart. If they evacuate, they'll do it before the storm hits. People will be able to use the subways or walk to higher ground. There will be shelters in many areas. From the map, it looked like you didn't have to go far to be out of danger...just way from the river and other water.

[elleng]

13. NOT the entire city, but low-lying areas.

People can move UP-TOWN!

[malaise]

17. Bloomberg has announced mandatory evacuation

for low lying areas.

[Cary Vonfused]

18. Didn't they pretty much have to evacuate Manhattan once?

That certain day almost 10 years ago. :evilfrown:

[MineralMan]

19. Here's the evacuation zone map for NYC.

It's a PDF, which you can see in your browser or download for closer scrutiny:

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf

Based on that map, I'd leave Long Island completely and head for higher ground. The whole thing is pretty much an evacuation zone. If you go, go early.

[rpannier]

20. Evacuate portions of NYC

Leave Wall Street finance people and the bank CEO's/Board of Directors there

on edit: Leave everyone at FOX there as well

[Renew Deal]

23. You don't evacuate all of NYC

Bloomy said today that most people are safer there than other places, and I think he's right. The low lying flood zones are an obvious exception.

[mopinko]

24. something to think about- evacuating pets

i just got this link in my favorite daily junk mail.

http://www.avma.org/disaster/default.asp?utm_source=getresponse&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=windycityparrot&utm_content=Is+Your+Bird+Prepared+for+Evacuation%3F+Are+You%3F