Oh dear God, could OR-1st turn red? (cross-posted to Oregon)

[Rabblevox]

I will admit, I have been somewhat smug living in OR-1st. (Portland west of the river, and surrounding areas) It has traditionally been one of the "bluest" districts in the country. We've got an openly gay mayor (too bad he's not a competent mayor, but I digress), and I can't remember the last time a republican was on the city council. Our elections tend to be pissing matches over who is "cleanest" "greenest" and most "pro-union".

(N.B. that doesn't mean our pols are necessarily smarter than yours, but they are retarded Dems instead of retarded Repugs, which DOES make a difference)

Now we must replace David Wu. I have never liked Wu. I've voted against him in the last 5 primaries. He has always been a toad and a hack who kept his seat because he voted the way we wanted him too.

Up against him we have the two Brads (Avakeian and Witt) both are completely uninspiring. We'll possibly also have state Sen. Susan Bonamici (also uninspiring). Elizabeth Furse was mentioned as a possible (which would excite me) but my read is that she is happy to be out of congress. Steve Novick would be a dream candidate, but it's only a dream. He's not moving into the district. He's not budging on this race, and will probably run for congress in his own district next year.

That's the blue side. Excuse me while I yawn.

On the red side, Rob Cornilles: He's smart, telegenic, wealthy, and pulled 46% against a 5-term incumbent in his first run in a "Solid blue" district. He's also as "moderate" as it's possible for a rethuglican to be these days. (He's actually pretty good about womens rights, gay rights, and immigration).

He ran a smart campaign last time, has even more money at his disposal, and this special election has gripped the attention of the RNC.

We also recently went through re-districting, OR-1st has lost a bit of it's urban base, and the prevailing wisdom is that it has shifted a few points more conservative.

Please don't mistake me, I'm not, not NOT endorsing him. I'd prefer a blue turd over a red stud any day.

But Christ Jesus am I tired of swallowing turds.

[Dawson Leery]

1. The results were: 54% D - 42% R

With that said, Kathy Hochul will show the way to win.

[Rabblevox]

7. You are correct, I was sloppy in my fact-checking. (and I wish Kathy...

lived in my district)

[xchrom]

2. I hate it when the party doesn't pay attention to spots like this

Then BINGO you have a problem you shouldn't have.

[Ozymanithrax]

3. when they are all turds...

You just have to decide which piece of shit stinks the least.

No matter how great a Republican looks, it will vote like a Republican and support a Republican majority.

Tough choice.

[Rabblevox]

4. I will dutifully hold my nose and vote for the bluest turd. (I just wish there was a grain of corn)

[Dawson Leery]

5. In a bad year, Wu won by 12 points as did Frank Pallone of NJ.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Pallone#Political_ca...

In light of what the GOP has done, the Democratic candidate has to hammer the Rethug the core issues.

[Rabblevox]

10. Pallone sounds like a tool as well (Boating and school safety caucuses?) puhleeze

[Reader Rabbit]

6. Brad Avakian is running for the seat, and he's a good guy.

Wu's weirdo flame-out may be a blessing in disguise.

http://www.bradavakian.com/

[Rabblevox]

8. I don't have anything against Avakian, but he has never...

done a single thing to inspire me, he has never done the right thing in the face of opposition, he's never been anything but a mid-level party functionary.

Maybe he is the best we can get right now. That is sad.

[gratuitous]

9. Work hard, but worry not

First off, Wu's strength was in his connections to Asia for trade reasons. He wasn't terribly inspiring, but he wasn't quite the zero the local media would like to make him out to be. (Full disclosure disclaimer: I worked for Wu's former law partner and met Wu a time or two.)

Second, after Elizabeth Furse endorsed Gordon Smith in 2008 she lost me for good.

Brad Avakian seems a good guy, with most of the right positions. I don't know that much about Witt or Bonamici. Registration in the district has long been a close split between Democrat and Republican, with non-affiliateds holding the balance of power. Non-affiliateds in Oregon, however, impress me as practical-minded folks of a liberal/progressive bent. Cornilles probably hit his zenith last year against Wu, and I don't expect him to come anywhere close to the high 40s should he be the Republican nominee.

Work for the Democratic nominee; I think you'll be on the winning side.

[roxiejules]

11. Bonamici is running

http://www.bonamiciforcongress.com /

and is endorsed by Furse and Roberts.

[RagAss]

12. Only the hair.

[stevedeshazer]

13. The problem will be in 2012.

You might find yourself in the third district, Earl Blumenauer's.

Redistricting will take most of west Portland out of district 1 and will add more rural area.

Not good.

[Arugula Latte]

14. Oh F me, that's my district

Gawd I hope not.