Poll: Democrats are twice as likely to approve of the debt deal as Republicans

[Recursion]

Actually more than twice as likely.

Via http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/poll-democrats-are-twice-as-likely-to-approve-of-the-debt-deal-as-republicans/2011/07/11/gIQABtCNsI_blog.html">Ezra Klein, from a USA Today/Gallup poll:

only 22% of Tea Party supporters approve of the deal, compared with 26% of Republicans generally and 58% of Democrats.

...

And although Obama and congressional Democrats failed to make higher taxes on the wealthy part of the agreement, moderate and liberal Democrats were among those who rate it most highly. Two-thirds of moderate Democrats approve of the agreement.

Though it's worth remembering:

[leveymg]

1. Gallup, again.

There are two "liberal Democrats" they call over and over again. They both live in Casper, Wyoming.

[Recursion]

5. Actually, they list their methodology:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/148802/Americans-Oppose-Favor-Debt-Ceiling-Agreement.aspx

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 2, 2011, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

Note that this includes both land line and cell phone users.

[katnapped]

12. Ah OK..."random sample"

Meaning they probably have 2,024 people in their address book to call, and it's "random" if you're the one of two (odds).

[Recursion]

14. Did you skip the part about random number dialing?

They pick, at random, people listed in the phone book for the land line quota, and they dial, at random, numbers on cell phone exchanges for the cell phone quota.

[leveymg]

13. So does a pack of Marlboros.

[kenny blankenship]

2. That just shows how fucked up things are.

We should not approve ANY such deal, not even a little bit. We got NOTHING. The whole negotiation was over how much flesh the Republicans would tear off. Deficit reduction is no desirable goal in a weak economy. And we helped to create one of the worst precedents in the history of US government by caving in to terrorism. The terrorists will be back for more.

That's all that the "dissatisfaction" on the part of the Pukers means. They'll want more blood, and soon. Their main resource as a party is ANGER AND RESENTMENT. When they are pissed that means they are on the warpath and energized. Seems like there are still some fucking idiots out there who haven't figured that out yet.

[Liberalynn]

4. Wonder how supportive people

will be of it, when its time to pay the piper with cuts to the most vital programs in round two? People aren't paying attention to the fine print.

[kenny blankenship]

16. Then they'll get quiet, and/or blame the Left for not holding Obama's feet to the fire

or some other bullshit excuse like that. "What? you thought Social Security/Medicare was going to last forever? Ha Ha Ha. Silly Liberal Leftards! It was ALWAYS a temporary, stopgap program! The government just put in as a placeholder until appropriate private sector solutions could be found! Besides, it's YOUR fault it's gone now. You didn't have his back!"

[Recursion]

17. Those are all in the future, and a future Congress has to actually make them

Cutting discretionary spending for anything past 2013 in this Congress literally doesn't mean anything: it's just Congress's saying "hey, next Congress, we really hope that's all you spend". Now, the trigger enforcement is more heavily front-loaded, but that is weighted very heavily towards cutting the defense budget, which is something most of us want to do anyways.

[readmoreoften]

3. Kudos to the Obama campaign and your Machiavellian spin tactics.

The marketing that got him elected is clearly working.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. When the second dip happens pay piper time

[Recursion]

7. It will never happen. Discretionary cuts to future fiscal years are meaningless.

The next Congress will spend however much it wants on whatever programs it wants. Passing a discretionary spending cut in a future fiscal year is simply stating that you hope the subsequent Congress only spends that much.

For my whole take on that, see http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1654875

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. You mean the second dip is not here?

A few economists disagree with you as well as Pimco and JP Morgan. You'll see... Yup

[Recursion]

9. Dupe

Oops

[Recursion]

10. I thought you meant "second dip" in terms of spending

As in, the cuts and/or trigger the commission will or won't recommend. My bad.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. I mean it in classic economic terms

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

15. More lipstick for the pig?

[bowens43]

18. that's because we as a party are mindless sheep.....

who think as we are told to think.....

[dbonds]

19. LIKELY doesn't mean it happened...

The actual numbers (latest Gallop Poll) showed on 51% of liberal democrats approved of the deal. Given the OP numbers then the deal must have been a bad compromise.

[provis99]

20. great. Everybody's a moron.

The Democrats for ignorantly liking this pro-Republican deal, and the Republicans for not even figuring out that they won.

[Recursion]

21. Alternately, DU is forgetting that multi-year budget plans mean absolutely nothing

And that Congress has repeatedly ignored spending cuts and recommendations from deficit-reduction commissions. Hell, even I am a little irked that this doesn't really do anything to reduce deficits going forward. The real reason Republicans like to cut entitlements is that, unlike discretionary spending, once they're cut they stay cut.