Nuclear Physicist: Most of the fallout from plutonium-containing MOX fuel will drop on U.S.

[Generic Other]

Interview with Akira Tokuhiro, Nuclear Engineer: Fukushima and the Mass Media

The most terrifying fact is that the Japanese power plants are using 'dirty' fuel, which most countries have rejected and banned. Needless to say that the Americans built them. Since the Earth is moving Counterclockwise most of the fall-out will drop on U.S., unless very strong winds take it somewhere else.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/vivian-norris-de-montaigu/interview-with-akira-toku_b_863297.html

[dipsydoodle]

1. What goes around comes around.

.

[RKP5637]

2. Yep, exactly. n/t

[roguevalley]

3. oh great. we will be first in Alaska. Great.

[Octafish]

4. How 'bout them Cowboys?

Fukushima was fixed, according to the lack of coverage on my local tee vee station and noose-paper.

[Fumesucker]

5. But.. but.. the US government has stopped 24 hour monitoring of the situation..

Just like in Manhattan after 9/11, there's nothing to worry about, it's perfectly safe.

[flamingdem]

6. This article is a must read

>>Virtually any nuclear engineer connected with the industry he or she supports cannot be fully trusted right now to give us the full truth about Fukushima because the truth is simply too damaging to the nuclear industry and they know it.

[RC]

19. Translation:

They are not saying what I want to hear, and/or what they are saying is not bad enough to suit me.

[Maru Kitteh]

27. So we should trust untrained chicken-little idiots instead. Makes perfect sense.

[meow mix]

7. hey ho! to the bottle i go!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RSh_mhN3Ts

[RC]

8. It's a good thing Canada and Mexico is safe.

[Octafish]

15. Actually, the Northern Hemisphere is pretty much screwed.

For the connected few, Paraguay should not be too badly affected and has a lot of water and more largely untapped resources, including human.

[Poll_Blind]

9. Recommended.

:scared:

PB

[Turbineguy]

10. The fallout will reach the US

on Saturday to coincide with the rapture.

[FBaggins]

11. Almost ALL of the plutonium from MOX fuel that has escaped containment...

... is sitting on the sea floor just east of the reactors.

The author hasn't a clue what she's talking about.

[Generic Other]

18. Akira Tokuhiro's Vita -- yeah he knows nothing....

Akira Tokuhiro's Overview

Current

Professor, Nuclear & Mechanical Engineering at University of Idaho
Lead, Nuclear Engineering Program at University of Idaho

Past

Faculty, Mechanical & Nuclear Engineering at Kansas State University
Faculty, Director, SRO - Nuclear Engineering & UMR Reactor at University of Missouri - Rolla
International Research Fellow at Japan Nuclear Fuel Cycle Development Institute

see all...
Education

Purdue University
University of Rochester
Purdue University

Akira Tokuhiro's Summary

PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
1) 20+ years in nuclear engineering, nuclear energy, energy, R&D, technology development; out-of-the-box thinker; process thinker; consensus builder; innovative ideas thinker; a 'do-er'.
2) International R&D experience; LWR/SBWR; SFR/LMFBR
3) Formerly Director of University of Missouri-Rolla Research Reactor; former NRC licensed Sr. Reactor Operator; administrative, fiscal, personnel, education, regulatory compliance, security, safety, R&D responsibilities
5) 100+ archival and conference papers; experienced proposal writer; technically innovative thinker
6) Directed 30+ MS and PhD students to date; directed 80+ students and young engineers; experienced multi-disciplinary research and team builder. Workforce development.
7) Knowledge, experience in the following: energy & resource issues; nuclear reactor engineering, nuclear systems design, reactor safety, thermohydraulics, thermal fluid sciences, experiments, ultrasonic and particle image velocimetry, computational fluid dynamics, convective heat transfer, measurement methods, modeling of complex processes, applied facial and voiced biometrics and assistive technology robotics, human factors, technology assessment and policy.
8) Courses taught: introductory, intermediate and advanced reactor engineering & design, reactor operations, heat transfer, nuclear heat transport, reactor safety, reactor physics, radiation detection & measurement, reactor-based experiments, nuclear fuel cycle, energy & sustainability
9) Fluent, conversational Japanese
10) Solar (thermal) + alternative energy knowledge from 1970-80s
11) Inter-, cross-, multi-. trans-disciplinary research; organizing teams, leading cross-disciplinary research teams
12) Special and big projects, initiatives; selling big ideas
Specialties

Nuclear reactor engineering, nuclear systems design, reactor safety, thermohydraulics, thermal fluid sciences, experiments, ultrasonic and particle image velocimetry, computational fluid dynamics, convective heat transfer, measurement methods, modeling of complex processes, applied facial and voiced biometrics and assistive technology robotics, human factors, technology assessment and policy.
Akira Tokuhiro's Experience
Professor, Nuclear & Mechanical Engineering
University of Idaho

Educational Institution; Higher Education industry

2007 – Present (4 years)
Lead, Nuclear Engineering Program
University of Idaho

Educational Institution; Higher Education industry

July 2007 – Present (3 years 11 months)
Faculty, Mechanical & Nuclear Engineering
Kansas State University

Educational Institution; Higher Education industry

July 2005 – July 2007 (2 years 1 month)
Faculty, Director, SRO - Nuclear Engineering & UMR Reactor
University of Missouri - Rolla

Educational Institution; Higher Education industry

July 2000 – July 2005 (5 years 1 month)
International Research Fellow
Japan Nuclear Fuel Cycle Development Institute

Research industry

March 1995 – June 2000 (5 years 4 months)
Wissenschafter; Beamter
Paul Scherrer Institut

Government Agency; 1001-5000 employees; Research industry

September 1990 – March 1995 (4 years 7 months)
Research Associate
ANL

Education Management industry

1984 – 1984 (less than a year)
Research Intern
Battelle Columbus Laboratories

Research industry

May 1978 – December 1981 (3 years 8 months)

1) 20 months total as research associate intern; 4 internship sessions
2) Thermal-Fluid Science Section
3) work on energy conservation, solar energy, thermal properties measurement, gun-gas diverter experiments for A-10 aircraft
Akira Tokuhiro's Publications

Status of Research and Development of the Pb-Alloy Cooled Fast Reactor
Atomic Energy Soc. Japan, J. Nucl. Sci. and Technol.,40,8
August 1, 2003
Authors: Akira Tokuhiro, Eric Loewen

A survey on LFR activities and issues circa 2002.

Akira Tokuhiro's Education
Purdue University
Ph.D., Nuclear Engineering

1985 – 1990

University of Rochester
M.S., Mechanical Engineering

1982 – 1983

Purdue University
B.S.E.

1977 – 1981

The Ohio State University

[NickB79]

24. If you'd read the link, you'd see Mr. Tokuhiro didn't make the claims attributed to him

Apparently he's relying on unnamed Russian/Swedish nuclear physicists of unknown reputation for this conclusion.

[FBaggins]

25. I said "the author"... and no, she doesn't.

Let's review

1) "the Japanese power plants are using 'dirty' fuel" - Wrong. Only one reactor used it.

2) "most countries have rejected and banned. Needless to say that the Americans built them." - Wrong - We don't have MOX reactors.

3) "Since the Earth is moving Counterclockwise most of the fall-out will drop on U.S." - A ridiculous statement. What's just east of Japan? Why is "most" of the fallout going to be 5-8,000 miles away (not more nor less)? Not a single fallout simulation showed "most" of any fallout ending up in the US. And, of course, we've been measuring fallout for two months now and there hasn't been anything CLOSE to the levels that there were in Japan.

4) There's no recognition of the fact that MOX fuel was only JUST put into that reactor a few months ago. With the exception of a handful of assemblies in the SFP, essentially ALL of ii was still inside the reactor when the events began. Almost all of the plutonium that would have been released came out with the flood of water running through the core and out into the basement (and/or the sea). "Strong winds" don't carry that thousands of miles.

5) They have yet to detect amounts of plutonium even in Japan that can be clearly linked to Fukushima (IOW, above existing background levels).


Lastly - Even if these were statements by Akira Tokuhiro's, they are almost all entirely outside of his "vita".

[iemitsu]

38. what is 'wrong" about saying the plant used dirty fuel

when "only one" did? that constitutes using.
you seem to struggle with analysis.
you seem awfully confident that the worst nuclear accident in history will be benign.

[leveymg]

35. "is sitting on the sea floor just east of the reactors." And that doesn't alarm you?

Cheez-itz. Almost all . . .

[FBaggins]

36. It's obviously not a good thing.

It's also not anywhere close to the "killer cloud on it's way to slaughter americans" that a few crackpots keep spouting.

It's also merely my assumption. No plutonium above already-existing levels has been reported so far. I think it's reasonable to assume that SOME has been released, but by far the most likely way that would have happened is through the leaking water and that which wasn't in the flooded basement areas would have made it to the sea. Likely (IMO) ending up adsorbed onto sea floor sediment quite close to the reactors.

As I said, that's a guess. They were reportedly testing sea-floor sediment not too far off of Fukushima a few weeks ago. None of the results I've seen showed this plutonium.

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Snoutport]

13. :0( so much for my organic garden!

[Maru Kitteh]

32. Plant your veggies. They'll be so much better than any of the wet cardboard they sell at the store.

Blech.

[robdogbucky]

14. Another way it can get from there to here:

"...Pacific bluefin tuna spawn in the Western Pacific between Okinawa and the Philippines and probably the Sea of Japan. They migrate over 6,000 nautical miles (11,000 km) to the Eastern Pacific, eventually returning to their birth waters to spawn again...

...Bluefin tuna mature slowly, reaching sexual maturity at about 5 years of age, with a maximum lifespan believed to be about 25 years.<3> Pacific bluefin tuna have been recorded to reach 9 feet (2.7 m) in fork length and can weigh over 1,000 pounds (454 kg).<4> They eat smaller fish, krill, pelagic red crab, mackerel and squid...

...Pacific Bluefin Tuna are overfished throughout their range. <3> They are hooked on long lines or illegally netted where they swim, and many young bluefin are captured before they reproduce. Creating effective fishing policies is difficult because they are migratory, swimming through the territorial waters of many different nations. Data about their movements and high levels of international cooperation are needed to ensure sustainable populations...


And from Wiki, a possible future solution for the Japanese wanting to eat bluefin:

"...Japan is both the biggest consumer and the leader in over tuna farming research.<7><8> Kinki University of Japan first successfully farmed already-hatched bluefin tuna in 1979. In 2002, they succeeded in breeding them, and in 2007, the process was repeated for a third generation.<9><10><11> This farm-raised tuna is now known as Kindai tuna. Kindai is a contraction of Kinki University (Kinki daigaku).<12> In 2009, Clean Seas, an Australian company with assistance from Kinki University <13><14> managed to breed Southern Bluefin Tuna in captivity, leading Time Magazine to award it second place in World’s Best Invention of 2009..."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_bluefin_tuna

[Phoonzang]

16. Let's all freak out about it. Because there's something we can do about it. Really. nt

[robdogbucky]

17. There are things we can do

This is a 11:29 minute video with Dr. Wing explaining the dangers and what can be done. Unfortunately, the options for behaviors to limit our diluted, bio-accumulated radiation doses here are limited. At least in Japan they can just leave if they can find somewhere to go. Our doses don’t require that. No one knows the full impact of continual low-level doses on us over time, nor does anyone now know for how long they must be endured. He recommends for us here not to ignore other sources of possible radiation because we are pre-occupied with the deposition of it on us currently from Fukushima. The single most important thing we can do is to urge our politicians and other government officials to stop this insane proliferation of an energy that is dangerous to our health. It is a problem the industry has created and they cannot allowed to carry it on, nor can they be allowed to walk away from or deny the damages. Simply shutting down monitoring or muzzling media reports will not do. Especially in this age of instant digital communications worldwide.

http://www.fairewinds.com/content/epidemiologist-dr-steven-wing-discusses-global-radiation-exposures-and-consequences-gunderse

"Epidemiologist, Dr. Steven Wing and nuclear engineer, Arnie Gundersen, discuss the consequences of the Fukushima radioactive fallout on Japan, the USA, and the world. What are the long-term health effects? What should the government(s) do to protect citizens?"

[Generic Other]

20. I prefer to think we can learn from our mistakes and correct them

not just ignore problems, and hope they go away.

We all need to die trying. Otherwise we die as toothless rats.

[muriel_volestrangler]

21. That quote is from an unnamed "Swedish-Russian nuclear physicist friend"

not from Akira Tokuhiro. And a meteorologist is who you need to ask about how far fall-out will travel, not a nuclear physicist. 'Most' of the fallout may well end up in the Pacific.

[Generic Other]

22. A good deal of fallout was reaching the West Coast

as we could see until the EPA quit reporting.

As for the quote about the fallout moving in a counterclockwise direction, it was most interesting because the same is true of airplane flights form Japan. Arrival from Narita is faster than departures from Seattle. It is certainly an issue of concern.

I hope you are right, however. Let it fall in the ocean. How long can we count on that as a failsafe though?

[NickB79]

23. A good deal of fallout? The EPA didn't find much of anything

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20110320/sc_ac/8098732_epa_no_dangerous_radiation_levels_on_west_coast

"A monitoring system in Sacramento, Calif., did detect trace amounts of iodine and other radioactive substances, including Iodine-131, Iodine-132, Tellurium-132 and Cesium-137. The amounts of all the substances were so miniscule that they pose no threat to human or environmental health. Similarly, a monitoring station in Washington also detected tiny amounts of radioactive Xenon, a gas that is generally produced from nuclear fission at nuclear power plants, but it too poses no concern.

While the news of these radioactive substances being detected may startle some residents, the EPA has emphasized that the normal daily dose of radiation is 100,000 times higher than the radiation found at these monitoring stations"


The reason the EPA finally stopped with EXTRA monitoring (they still have some radiation monitoring in place at all times) is that the extra radiation monitoring stations they put out were finding so little radiation that they had to let the air filters collect particles for 3 whole days just to get a reading above baseline.

[Generic Other]

26. Okay so no problem... small amounts of fallout for 60+ days is A-OK

No need to monitor. No need to worry.

What the hell?

[Hannah Bell]

29. they *are* monitoring. jeez. get the basic facts straight before going on the self-righteous rant.

[Generic Other]

30. NILU ended public forecasts and the EPA stopped daily monitoring

Self-righteous rant? I prefer the hysterical chicken little title.

Belittling people seems to have become the norm around here.

[Hannah Bell]

31. EPA is still monitoring (as always) & posting data.

After a thorough data review showing declining radiation levels related to the Japanese nuclear incident, EPA has returned to the routine RadNet sampling and analysis process for precipitation, drinking water and milk.

As always, EPA's RadNet system of more than 100 stationary monitors will continue to provide EPA scientists near-real-time data on the slightest fluctuations in background radiation levels. Due to the consistently decreasing radiation levels, EPA is evaluating the need to continue operating the additional air monitors deployed in response to the Japan nuclear incident. EPA will continue to analyze air filters and cartridges from all air monitors as they arrive at the laboratory and will post the data as available.

http://www.epa.gov/radiation/


NILU's "forecasts" were based on public data & did not predict anything that actually happened.

“These products are highly uncertain based on limited information for the source terms. Please use with caution and understand that the values are likely to change once we obtain more information on the overall nature of the accident.” -NILU

Thank you for your interest in the FLEXPART products for Fukushima. The Forecast system is no longer running.

We have discontinued our Flexpart forecast of the atmospheric dispersal of radionucleides from Fukushima. This due to the fact that we do not have access to reliable release rates reflecting the current situation at the plant to be used as input to our simulations. It is likely that the release of radioactive material is significantly reduced compared to the initial period, and that levels no longer pose a health risk at distance from the plant.

http://transport.nilu.no/products/fukushima


This post is (allegedly) from a member ("Mark") of the Berkeley Radiological Air and Water Monitoring team. (BRAWM)

Forecasts have become irrelevant
Submitted by bandstra on Fri, 2011-05-13 06:16.
The discontinuation of the NILU and EURAD simulations has been generating a lot of interest with folks on this forum, and I am trying to keep up with the various threads. But here's the bottom line:

(1) NILU and EURAD were not actually making measurements of the plume, but performing plume forecasts.

(2) The assumptions that went into the forecasts reflected a worst-case scenario. They assumed huge, constant releases from the reactors.

(3) BRAWM is measuring the plume. If any large releases had occurred after late March, we would have been seeing them in our air measurements. We are hardly able to detect anything anymore in the air.

For example, the 4/24-25 plume that you mentioned never actually happened -- please look at our air measurements for proof.

Therefore, the forecasts have become irrelevant to the actual facts. I think both of those groups probably saw little reason to devote their resources to the forecasts any longer. It is not a cover-up; they have just become irrelevant.

For more info about NILU and EURAD, I've made numerous comments throughout the forum, such as "A note on interpreting EURAD and NILU plume forecasts". Bottom line is that neither website ever meant to be taken as seriously as people took them...

Mark

NILU forecasts didn't reflect reality

Submitted by bandstra on Fri, 2011-05-13 07:04.
All I can do is point you to our air measurements, which include dose measurements for the air -- on the highest spikes in activity, it would still have taken 170 years of breathing that air to receive an equivalent dose 5 millirem.

Also I think you've taken NILU much more seriously than they intended. I'll repeat the NILU disclaimer that was up on their website, from early April through when it was taken offline:

These products are highly uncertain based on limited information for the source terms. Please use with caution and understand that the values are likely to change once we obtain more information on the overall nature of the accident. The products should be considered informational and only indicate 'worst case scenario' releases. From what we've learned recently, it seems releases of this magnitude have not yet occurred. Furthermore, these modeling products are based on global meteorological data, which are too coarse to provide reliable details of the transport of the plume across Japan.

Mark


http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/node/3951#comment-7278

[Generic Other]

33. You left out the pertinent info from the EPA website

"In accordance with normal RadNet protocol, EPA will be analyzing milk and drinking water samples on a quarterly basis and precipitation samples as part of a monthly composite. The next round of milk and drinking water sampling will take place in approximately three months."

Why would they sample once every three months when the information is critically needed now? TEPCO assured us everything was OK too. Even when so many could see that it wasn't. The public has a right to honest and up-to-date information.

And the NILU stops making predictions because the Japanese will not provide them with accurate data. They ceased monitoring and based their assessments before we were informed that reactors have melted down.

Neither sounds like they ceased monitoring because the crisis was somehow over.

I think they should still be monitoring and assessing the danger. I think they have been asked to stand down.

[Hannah Bell]

34. The air data is monitored constantly. The last two months of sampling for water & milk were april &

may:

May 3, 2011

Today, EPA released new data for drinking water, precipitation and milk. Results from one drinking water and two precipitation samples detected low levels of radioactive material consistent with estimated releases from the damaged nuclear reactors. These detections were expected and the levels detected are far below levels of public health concern.

To view the most recent sampling data, go to http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/rert/radnet-sampling-data.html.

April 28, 2011

As of 9:00 am (EDT) EPA's RadNet radiation air monitors across the U.S. show typical fluctuations in background radiation levels. The levels detected are far below levels of concern.

Today, EPA also released new data for drinking water. Both drinking water results were non-detects for iodine-131.

To view the most recent sampling and monitoring data, go to http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/rert/radnet-sampling-data.html.

http://www.epa.gov/radiation/data-updates.html


Also, TEPCO/Japan have not refused to release data. Somehow you got the story confused. They release data practically every day.

[Generic Other]

37. Initially, TEPCO did not share information...that is a recent developement

It is only in the past week that TEPCO has even admitted that meltdown occurred in March. They are only recently being more forthcoming with information.

And EPA says it is not testing again for three months. So in July, they will test milk, rainwater and drinking water again. They say as much on the site you linked to.

I have been paying attention to the information and/or lack of it since Day One. I am admittedly not an expert or a scientist. I am an average citizen trying to stay informed. I am a concerned relative with family near Fukushima. I am afraid for them. I am afraid for residents of the West Coast.

I don't and never have supported nuclear power. I find it dangerous and not worth the risk.

I appreciate being corrected when I post erroneous information. But you are challenging information without keeping the timeframe in mind:

TEPCO stonewalled for 2 months on the extent of problem. The NILU expressed their frustration with TEPCO when they quit making predictions based on lack of detailed information. They said so themselves on their website. They suspended making the maps identifying likely movement of fallout. After several high readings in places like San Diego and SF, the EPA also suspended testing other than on a quarterly basis and argued that fallout levels were too low to warrant testing more regularly.

TEPCO acknowledged the plants were in meltdown after EPA and NILU made their announcements. This info should change the game plan, but apparently has not for some.

I don't think I am confused at all. But if I am it is due to lack of clear honest information coming from my government that confuses me. I am suspicious that the underplaying of the extent of the problem is deliberate.

[Maru Kitteh]

28. LOL - that HYSTERICAL on so many different levels! Is the friend Swedish-Russian?

Is the friend a nuclear physicist? And why did their parents never get around to naming them? :rofl: