Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Perhaps health insurance stocks have gone up because the Dow has gone up at the same pace. Let's see

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » General Discussion: Presidency Donate to DU
 
mcablue Donating Member (625 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 05:37 PM
Original message
Perhaps health insurance stocks have gone up because the Dow has gone up at the same pace. Let's see
Edited on Mon Dec-21-09 05:38 PM by mcablue
We shouldn't be simplistic and jump to conclusions that the latest health care news have caused a spike in health insurers' stocks. Perhaps the Dow Jones has gone up at a comparable rate in the last few days. There's only one way to know. Let's go to the statistics:



As you can see, the light blue line represent the Dow in general. That line is roughly flat during the past 10 days or so, when big events have rocked the health care reform news world, whereas health insurance stocks have experienced a surge.

How do health insurers' stocks compare to the Dow in general? Those lines represent United Health, Aetna, Humana and WellPoint.

What can we conclude regarding these numbers?

Here's the link to the graph: http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
DJ13 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. If the market expected this to hurt profits, the stocks would be lower
Its pretty basic stuff.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mcablue Donating Member (625 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 05:39 PM
Response to Original message
2. Unrec'ers, I would bend the lines in order to make you feel good. But I can't
Edited on Mon Dec-21-09 05:40 PM by mcablue
Trust me. I do not want to hurt anyone's feelings with this hard data.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
gravity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 05:41 PM
Response to Original message
3. Health insurance stocks had been down since Obama won the nomination
out of fear of what he was going to do to the industry. Despite the small boosts today, health stocks had been down 40% since Obama was the beginning of 2008.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mcablue Donating Member (625 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. You only mention "today" as a good day for their stocks
But the graph does not show just a one day boost. The surge began roughly when the streak of dead liberal measures and amendments (public option, drug reimportation) began. We do not simply see a one-day blip in that graph.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Unvanguard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 07:58 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. But the poster's point still holds.
If he or she is right about the pattern, then the recent stock price upswing (assuming they are actually connected to the health care bill) reflects a judgment that the bill without a public option is better than the bill with one: it does not mean that investors think the bill without a public option is better than the status quo.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
quiller4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 05:51 PM
Response to Original message
4. Your graph doesn't go far enough back.
Insurance stocks in general are down from where they were in March-April whereas all the exchanges are up from their March lows. The insurance stocks have rebounded a little bit since they didn't take the hit they expected but they are far below the DOW and the S & P for the year.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
dave29 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. I have seen a lot of creative graph work today
Edited on Mon Dec-21-09 05:55 PM by dave29
It is silly to use the short term market as an indicator of anything except for gambling habits

That is not to say there is no merit to the stocks rising due to some perceptions about the healthcare bill. Ironically all the people talking about it today probably helped the bump.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
pa28 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 06:28 PM
Response to Original message
6. delete
Edited on Mon Dec-21-09 06:33 PM by pa28
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ipaint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 06:37 PM
Response to Original message
7. Well the house could always reinsert the public option and the senate
could send out a rumor they are considering keeping it in and then watch what happens to ins. stock prices.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SpartanDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 07:04 PM
Response to Original message
8. Lets look at their performace YTD
Edited on Mon Dec-21-09 07:52 PM by SpartanDem
I don't know how to post the graph YTD Atena is +19.44%, Wellpoint +42.43, Humana + 20.82%, United Health +20.94%, the Dow +18.66% with the exception of Wellpoint since about April all of their stocks have generally followed the Dow.

LINK
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
treestar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 07:08 PM
Response to Original message
9. This one is way out there
Who even cares if the bill does good?

It still doesn't prove anything. Very oversimplistic, I'd need four economists at least to make a case that it is related.

Hatred of an abstract organization this great should not trump reform if it helps people.

This post is not even in favor of the bill, Congress or the President. It is merely in favor of information rather than jumping to fun conclusions based on logical fallacies.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-21-09 07:57 PM
Response to Original message
11. Windfall profits for the cos. and their shareholders. Profits provided by you and me.
Glad I still have a job where I have to work almost 6 days every week and get only one day off for Christmas. Lots of things coming up for me to pay for! Oh, and no cost containment for MY insurance, since my employer provides that. So my premiums will cont. to go up, which will affect my salary. And I may get taxed for that benefit, too, in the end!

Oh, joy! Oh, rapture!

St. Peter, don't you call me, 'cause I can't go! I owe my soul to the country store!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Sat Oct 25th 2014, 05:11 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » General Discussion: Presidency Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC