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Is there a precedent for a candidate to start as a frontrunner, drop hugely in polls, then win?

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Mayberry Machiavelli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 08:50 AM
Original message
Is there a precedent for a candidate to start as a frontrunner, drop hugely in polls, then win?
I realize McCain was nearly dead and won the nomination, but I recall Giuliani and Thompson as being early frontrunners.

Perry jumping in with the lead means the GOP WANTED to vote for him and not Romney, him dropping shows they don't like what they see.

Is there any precedent for a candidate to lose this much ground and then recover to win the nomination? I realize no votes have been cast yet, but this is a really bad flameout by Perry.
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Yupster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 08:53 AM
Response to Original message
1. Let's go all the way back to
Edited on Thu Oct-27-11 08:54 AM by Yupster
McCain.

He lost though.

I think Perry could have recovered if he put in an excellent debate performance last time. I think it's too late for him now.

Just my opinion of course.

I'd put money on Newt if I got long enough odds right now.
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Enrique Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 08:54 AM
Response to Original message
2. John Kerry?
:shrug:
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INdemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 08:59 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. What?
John Kerry was never down.. He won the Iowa caucus and from there never really looked back. And keep in mind he won the general election.
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Enrique Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 09:10 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. he made a big comeback to win Iowa
I remember, when Ted Kennedy started campaigning for him seemed to be when he turned it around. Before Iowa, he was way down in the polls and a lot of people had written him off completely.
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SkyDaddy7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-29-11 05:49 AM
Response to Reply #4
10. He also got a huge boost...
The night or so before the Iowa caucus when the guy who Kerry saved his life in Vietnam spoke out in the crowd. At that time many in the Democratic Party were looking for someone who could compete with Bush when it came to military matters. But I could be mistaking but that is how I remember things going down.
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karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Before the Iowa caucus, he was first one of the front runners and then
was counted out by the entire media. He won under the radar, winning Iowa, by winning over people one to one. I don't think I can think of anyone who won the nomination in either party with less media and party support. Imagine how strong a candidate he would have been with strong media support.
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Tarheel_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Ditto! (nt)
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BlueIris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-28-11 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. My favorite 'closer' of all time. nt
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dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-11 11:40 PM
Response to Original message
7. Clinton could also be argued
though not as much as Kerry who fits a bit better. Clinton become a front runner then had the Flowers scandal and then came in second in NH which he portrayed as a win against neighboring Tsongas.
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quakerboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-29-11 02:11 AM
Response to Original message
9. Which one of them hasnt been the "front runner" at some point?
It almost seems like they are playing musical chairs on purpose to keep from having the ugly truth about whoever their new figurehead is come out. Because there is really ugly truth about every single one of them to be easily had.
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DemocratAholic Donating Member (156 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-29-11 05:23 PM
Response to Original message
11. excellent question
you might be voicing a concern that a lot of us are quietly thinking, is this the end of Rick Perry or is it possible for him to make a comeback. i can't recall someone making a comeback from this bad of a spill in a presidential primary, however there certainly are ample examples of candidates for other offices who have made comebacks.

i don't really see any precedent for what is happening in the Republican primary campaign right now, it is very, very odd because there are so many candidates...and so many of them are simply unelectable. Cain, Bachman, Paul...none of whom could be elected in a general election because they are frankly crazy. and now, one of these crazies is leading in the polls.

my own guess is that eventually voters will realize that Cain can not win, and his supporters will switch back to Perry as the only viable alternative to Romney. so my prediction is that he will make a comeback, and i think he will give Romney a good run for his money. personally, i think Perry is the biggest threat to Obama because he is very good at acting like a tough cowboy who worships at the same temple of ignorance that so many Americans do.

don't underestimate Rick Perry, and don't overestimate the intelligence of the American voter.
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