According to latest Gallup poll all major GOP candidates competitive with Obama.

[totodeinhere]

http://preview.tinyurl.com/43qv2l6

They have Obama two points behind Romney and tied with Perry. And even Bachmann is only four points behind Obama. Ron Paul is two points behind.

I don't necessarily believe these results, and it's a long time before the election and there is plenty of time for the electorate to come to it's senses. But if these results are anywhere near accurate, then it scares the holy hell out of me.

[UrbScotty]

1. Not surprising given what he's faced, and with a hostile media.

That said, let's hope his numbers improve when his message gets to more people.

McCain was leading in September 2008 - before the debates.

[totodeinhere]

4. Let's hope so indeed. Otherwise, this country is totally finished. n/t

[Hippo_Tron]

19. McCain was leading in some polls and close in others before Lehman Brothers collapsed

The debates were probably not the decisive factor. That said, bad poll numbers in August the year before the election aren't the mark of doom that bad poll numbers in August the year of the election are.

[boxman15]

2. Well, it's been a rough period for him so it shouldn't be surprising.

He'll bounce back in the polls once people get to know more about the GOP.

[Cali_Democrat]

3. Your link is bad.

Edit...never mind. You have to click on 'proceed to this site'

Duh :blush:

[totodeinhere]

5. Yes, the original link was way too long, so I decided to use TinyURL. But I wanted people to know

for sure that I was not tricking them into clicking on a malicious website, hence the "proceed to" link.

[treestar]

6. Starting this already?

It's more than an effin' year away.

[totodeinhere]

8. Already? Heck, they were matching Obama up against potential GOP candidates a year ago. n/t

[tritsofme]

7. Results like this should be expected with where his approval rating is.

It doesn't say much about where we will be 15 months from now, however.

[Hart2008]

9. Regardless of the macro polling, the electoral college favors Repukes...

More states consistently vote Repuke in presidential elections, then vote for Dems. According to this data, and its history, Obama is now unlikely to be re-elected:

President Obama's job approval rating is hovering around the 40% mark. This is below the rating that any of the six incumbent presidents re-elected since Eisenhower has had at the time of the presidential election.

Unless the economy improves significantly, especially the unemployment numbers, Obama is likely now a one term president. That is the reality here, whether Obama supporters want to believe that news or not. Now I will await the "shoot the messenger" posse.

:banghead:

[totodeinhere]

11. I continue to believe that when all is said and done the American people will not be

stupid enough to elect a Republican, even given the idiosyncrasies of the Electoral College. Is this just wishful thinking on my part? Perhaps it is, I don't know, but I have to cling to some kind of hope. I know that the voters have made stupid decisions before, such as electing Reagan twice and putting the pukes in charge of the House in the last election. But electing the likes of Bachmann or Perry? I just don't believe that could happen.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

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[BeFree]

21. I was polled a while back

And I told them I was not happy with Obama.
But you can bet your sweet bee-pee I will vote for Obama.

So, don't put any faith in these polls.

[BobbyBoring]

23. Yes, Wishfull thinking

Americans are stupid PERIOD. I remember the headlines in the London Times in 2004 that said something like "How can 54,000,000 people be so stupid".

Americans are dumber now that they were then!

[Hart2008]

28. "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

Henry L. Mencken said it best.

It is as true then, as it was then, unfortunately.

:hangover:

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

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[ProSense]

12. Interesting

So with Obama statistically tied among independents the races is a toss up?

The Bachmann and Paul numbers are hard to believe.

In 2008:

McCain got 90 percent of the Republican vote, 44 percent of the Independent vote and 10 percent of the Democratic vote.

Obama got 89% of the Democratic vote, 52 percent of the Independent vote and 9 percent of the Republican vote.

[Arkana]

14. In 1995 Bob Dole beat Clinton by 2 points in one Gallup poll.

Clinton beat him by 8.

Polls like this mean precisely SQUAT.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Unemployment Was Around 5% And GDP Growth Was Around 4% In 96

I don't like to be blasphemous but Jesus wasn't beating Clinton in 96. If unemployment was 9.2% and GDP growth was < 2% we would have been cursed with Robert Dole.

[Arkana]

16. Clinton had just come off the health care debacle and his administration was plagued by mistakes

and scandal in 1995.

Then he rolled to reelection anyway.

As did Ronald Reagan in 1984, and that was with even higher unemployment than we have now.

The GOP field is shitty and it is only going to get shittier. Barring a cataclysm like a live boy/dead girl scenario, I'd put Obama at around 85-90% chance to be reelected.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. All People Care About Is Their Pocketbook And Wallet And The Economy Was Booming

That's why Clinton left office with an approval rating in the 70s.

And unemployment was 7.2% in November of 1984:

http://www.davemanuel.com/historical-unemployment-rates-in-the-united-states.php

If unemployment is 7.2% in November of 2012 then President Obama will be reelected also.

[Hippo_Tron]

20. Bob Dole was pretty reasonable as far as Republicans go

But I'm certainly glad he never made it to the White House. If anything, he would've put the nation to sleep for four years.

[Ter]

32. I'll take him any day over either Bush though

Hell, I'll even take him over McCain. Probably the best puke nominee in generations. Not saying much, right? :)

[Hawkowl]

27. But we may have avoided W.

We may have avoided 9/11, the mortgage blowup etc. Who knows? The only thing I really know is that it is going to get worse. In the long run, is it better for Obama to get the blame? Or a president Teabagger?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. IMO If McInsane Would Have Won

The economy would still suck, except the Pubs would have been "punished" in the mid terms. We would be looking ar seventy or so Democratic senator and three hundred or so Democratic House members.

[Ter]

33. I think W. would have ran in 2004

Let's say Dole wins in 1996, and runs for re-election against (probably) Gore in Y2K. Regardless of weather he wins or loses to Gore, Bush would just run in 2004. He'd still be young enough, and I think he'd be popular enough to get the nomination.

Would 9/11 have happened? No idea. But if Dole being elected in 1996 could have prevented it (who knows, maybe Dole would have ordered OBL killed in 1997), then I'd have to wish the election on Dole. I don't care if I disagree with his policies, 9/11 would be the deal breaker. I'd do anything to have those towers still standing and those people still alive, even if it means putting Dole in office fro, 1997-2005. Flame away, people.

[totodeinhere]

17. But Dole was not totally batshit crazy like most of the current crop of GOP candidates are.

Yes, a poll at this stage doesn't mean that much, but seeing the likes of Perry and Bachmann that close to Obama even at this early stage is chilling.

[Sheepshank]

18. But things look w-a-y different on other polls

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x752989

referencing http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

Awful lot of Obama blue going on at those polls.

[struggle4progress]

22. Meh. Polling is partly a PR game. The pollsters are trying to sell their skills to candidates:

the game includes producing vague results that convince folk to pay money for detailed results

And a lot of it is pure psychological warfare

You can look at stuff like this but, chances are, you won't learn anything reliable by looking

[IcyMedic]

24. I Imagine it getting worse for Obama actually

The republicans still aren't united behind one candidate, and they haven't campaigned much.

[TrainToCry]

25. And yet he will still win. Is that going to disappoint you?

[JoePhilly]

26. Meaningless at this point.

And it will remain meaningless until the GOP picks some one.

As things stand, the media is covering 8 nuts, all screaming angry things at Obama ... Obama, being President, can't really fight back because he does not have time to take on 8 opponents.

And so these GOP nuts are able to generate an 8 to 0 edge in attacks. For now. And low info voters will only hear those attacks, and some of them will assume that "clearly Obama is a bad guy" because that's the only message they hear, day in, day out.

But that won't last into the General election. At some point, the GOP has to pick, and then its a straight fight. And my money is on Obama against which ever of these manics makes it to the general.

Oh, and by then ... the endless cries of "primary Obama" will have died their natural death ... and the folks who've been screaming for that, assuming they continue to come to DU, will have 2 actual choices presented to them. Some of them will hate Obama until the end, some will decide that letting Perry become President would be a disaster.

[and-justice-for-all]

29. those polls do not mean jack shit...nt