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FL POLL: Obama approval at 48%, +4 over Romney, +8 over Pawlenty, +9 over Bachmann

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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 12:12 PM
Original message
FL POLL: Obama approval at 48%, +4 over Romney, +8 over Pawlenty, +9 over Bachmann
Edited on Fri Jun-24-11 12:12 PM by jefferson_dem
Obama leads in Florida

You can talk about the economy and unemployment and Afghanistan all you want but Barack Obama has one huge asset when it comes to his reelection bid: the Republican Party. And nowhere is that clearer than in the vital state of Florida where voters are split pretty much right down the middle on the President, but nevertheless leaning toward reelecting him at this point.

48% of voters in the Sunshine State approve of the job Obama's doing to 49% who disapprove. Republicans are more unified in their disapproval of him (87%) than Democrats are in their approval (81%) and independents split against him by a 48/49 margin identical to his overall numbers.

Despite Obama's tepid approval numbers he still has at least a 4 point lead against all of his top potential challengers. It's 47-43 over Mitt Romney, an 8 point advantage over Tim Pawlenty at 48-40, a 9 point edge against Michele Bachmann at 49-40, an 11 point spread against Herman Cain at 48-37, and a 12 point blowout over Sarah Palin at 52-40.

Why, if Obama's relatively weak in the state, does he lead all of his potential opponents? Because the Republicans are weaker. Consider this:

1) All of the GOP hopefuls have negative favorability ratings in the state, both overall and with independents. Bachmann comes closest to breaking even at 36/37, including 29/41 with independents. Romney's 41/45 overall and 43/45 with independents, Cain's 25/33 overall and 27/29 with independents, Pawlenty's 19/39 overall and 16/42 with independents, and Palin's 37/58 overall and 27/67 with independents. Floridians aren't enamored with Obama but they don't find any of the alternatives particularly compelling either.

<SNIP>

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/06/obama-l...
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Cali_Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 12:19 PM
Response to Original message
1. These polls are meaningless. Obama is not running against a Republican opponent in 2012
Obama is running against the economy. The only numbers that matter are the unemployment rate and the amount of jobs generated every month from now until November 2012.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Yes, we know.
Utterly "meaningless"...unless, of course, he was losing.

I thought about qualifying my OP, acknowledging the meaninglessness of any poll result that shows POTUS in the lead this far out, and with the economy and all, but decided not too. Oh well...
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 12:29 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. No, that is your wording. The republicans who are running have NOT stated one viable plan to
address the economic issues except the old trickle down economics from the reagan era, which led us to where we are now

and with all the retirees in Florida, you cannot ignore the fact that the republican position on social security and medicare is in major contrast to the Democratic one, will have a huge factor in the next election

Poll after poll indicates that their is a high disapproval for the Paul Ryan plan, which the republican party has not backed away from

Even if jobs is high on everyones list, the question that needs to be asked, whose policies were more responsible for that state of affairs

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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. If you didn't notice, the economy isn't doing so well right now, and he is beating
his opponents in the polls. So, the polls mean a LOT.
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Cali_Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 01:26 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Nope
Polls more than one year from the election don't mean shit. The economy is still growing, but at a slow pace.

If we start shedding jobs and the economy begins to contract, you will see that his Republican opponent won't mean anything.

It's Obama vs The Economy.

It's the economy, stupid.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 01:54 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Change in public opinion happens incrementally.
Edited on Fri Jun-24-11 01:55 PM by jefferson_dem
Tomorrow's opinions will be based, in part, on today's opinion. That Obama is still leading even amidst this economic "rough patch" should not be dismissed. Of course, much will happen in in the next 16 months. Things WILL change, perhaps dramatically. Still...it's better to be up than down at this point.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 02:02 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. Nope.
ALL of the headlines and reporting and polling show that the economy is doing horribly-worse than expected-yet he's still beating his opponents. His opponents are specific Republicans, whether you like it or not. And even with the state of the economy as it is now, Obama still beats them. I guess that means, by your logic, he beats the economy, too. I know you hate to hear that.
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Cali_Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. "I know you hate to hear that. "
:rofl:
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treestar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #1
8. That overstates it
While it may have an effect, the idea that Mittens or Bachmann could or would do more is still in play. And they'd cut the safety net instead.

Voters can be moronic, but it only goes so far.
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Donnachaidh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 02:13 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. +100.
I love how these numbers are pushed hard and heavy, especially with the economy tanking again. AS IF they mattered... :eyes:
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bigdarryl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #1
15. BULLSHIT Obama can be reelected on a bad economy if you follow the
Allan Lichtman formula 13 keys to the Whitehouse he has 3 negative keys against him he would need 6 to not win the popular vote
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 12:24 PM
Response to Original message
2. Gee, it is funny that they had to be hurt first hand by those policies before the people realized
there was a difference

Losing money for the high speed rail system, which no doubt would have created jobs, and brought more tourists to the area, threatening to privatize social security and medicare, all policies that did not win overwhelming support

What I find amazing is they didn't hide their policies, and the people still voted them in

What did they expect?


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woo me with science Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 12:28 PM
Response to Original message
4. But the generic Republican candidate beats him!
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treestar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 01:34 PM
Response to Reply #4
9. LOL
No feet or hands and his head is not attached to his body! :rofl:

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progressoid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-24-11 02:28 PM
Response to Reply #4
14. Haaahahaha.
I missed that episode.

:rofl:

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