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Clio the Leo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-11 08:11 PM
Original message
"Goodbye Enthusiasm Gap"
Goodbye Enthusiasm Gap
JANUARY 18, 2011

If I had to name the two biggest factors that cost Democrats the 2010 election cycle it would be 2 e's- economy and enthusiasm. A huge part of the party's problem was the bad economy, which drove independent voters strongly toward GOP candidates. But just as important was the enthusiasm gap and the fact that Republicans turned out at a much higher rate than Democrats in almost every state in the country.

I don't know where the economy's going to be 22 months from now but our newest weekly national survey for Daily Kos finds that the enthusiasm problem for Democrats is likely to be quickly a thing of the past.

85% of Democrats in the country are either 'very excited' or 'somewhat excited' about voting in the Presidential election next year, actually slightly higher than the 82% of Republicans. There are more Republicans who are 'very excited'- 62% to the Democrats' 57%, but 'somewhat excited' voters are going to come out the vast majority of the time. The ones you need to worry about are the 'not excited' voters- and 18% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats fall into that category, virtually indistinguishable.

Digging deeper the single group with the highest percentage of voters who are 'very excited' about turning out next year is African Americans at 71%. Anyone who thinks black voters aren't going to match their record turnout from 2008 and cast more than 90% of their votes for the President is kidding themselves. They may not have been excited enough about the Dan Onoratos and Brad Ellsworths and Jon Corzines of the world to turn out in 2009 and 2010 but that says nothing about their eagerness to come out with Obama back on the top of the ticket.

Another big turnout issue for Democrats last year was that the percentage of voters under 30 collapsed while the share over 65 collapsed. That also doesn't look like it will be a problem next year- the 54% of young people 'very excited' about voting next year is exactly the same as the portion of senior citizens who express that sentiment.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/01/goodbye...


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AspenRose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-11 08:57 PM
Response to Original message
1. So folks need to start anticipating voter disenfranchisement among
*blacks
*hispanics
*young voters/college kids

and plan accordingly.
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Historic NY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-11 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. yup, any way they can to drive down the vote.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-20-11 11:14 PM
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3. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Beacool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-11 12:06 AM
Response to Original message
4. What the hell is there to be excited about????
Where are the jobs??? Read article after article right here on this board about one plant or business closing after the other. Yeah, I'm soooo excited that they are all already on campaign mode. How many millions of dollars will both parties spend in their quest for power?

x(
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Clio the Leo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-11 08:35 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. "Read article after article right here on this board"
It's also important to read articles NOT on this board as DU exists in a vacuum. ;)

"Michigan's Unemployment Rate Falls Sharply"
http://wtvbam.com/news/articles/2011/jan/20/michigans-u... /

Manufacturing sees strongest growth since 1994
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fe26c828-1ef8-11e0-b3ba-00144...
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impik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-11 12:17 AM
Response to Original message
5. Democrats never had enthusiasm gap when it comes to Obama
His numbers were and is very high.
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pattycake007 Donating Member (10 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-11 06:02 AM
Response to Original message
6. If the Jobs ever come the enthusiasm will be back.
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sweetapogee Donating Member (449 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-11 09:29 AM
Response to Original message
8. the writer
of the article in the OP may "not know where the economy's going to be 22 months from now" but everyone knows where it is today. And if it doesn't start moving out of the shit can within the next 10-12 months, 22 months from now it will be exactly where it is at this point in time. No economy the size of ours this that nimble and the clock is ticking.
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