What Do You Think The Unemployment Rate Will Be In March 012

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Poll question: What Do You Think The Unemployment Rate Will Be In March 012

That's about when the presidential campsign begins. Some would say it has already begun.

Poll result (75 votes)
> 12%	(24 votes, 32%)	Vote
10% -11.9%	(9 votes, 12%)	Vote
9% -9.9%	(11 votes, 15%)	Vote
8% -8.9&	(19 votes, 25%)	Vote
7%-7.9&	(11 votes, 15%)	Vote
< 6.9%	(1 votes, 1%)	Vote

[CitizenLeft]

1. I said 8-8.9%, but that's still a danger zone for Obama

Seven % or less would be much better, but the chances of that... I don't know. With a Republican house, I don't see any chance of a jobs bill being passed that will lessen that percentage faster because they want it to be as high as possible, and calling them out on that strategy won't change a damn thing. They dont' care. The natural progress of the economy improving might bring it down as low as 8%, but beyond that...

And more importantly - can those out of work last that long?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. IMHO

For some reasons folks are infatuated with numbers, hence the fetishization of Dow 10,000, the number it's been hovering around for the past decade.

Anything under 8% and he's golden. 8% -8.9% is a trouble zone. > 9% and he's in real trouble.

I have seen one projection that has it under 8% in 012.

[CitizenLeft]

8. if it falls below 8%, he's got a good chance at re-election

...AND of making gains in the House again. I don't believe we can take it back, that's too much. But close that gap - I believe we can. Even take a seat or two in the Senate. That is all possible if unemployment drops below 8% - AND Dems make the case that it's because of THEM and Obama that it happened. If they allow the Republicans to take the credit for that drop, it will be... bad.

Best of luck to you, I've seen your posts about your situation. I hope and pray that you find something soon. I'm in total sympathy and support of all of those out of work. Hurts me to the core.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Under 8% And He's Golden But There Is So Much Work To Be Done

That's why a flawed simulus is better than nothing. I think the chaos caused by doing nothing can choke the recovery. How hard is it to choke an economy that's growing at 2.5%.

[CitizenLeft]

10. agree - I'm for the bill if for only the relief it gives the poor and unemployed.

If we let this pass, they will sink. The Republicans will do NOTHING whatsoever to pass extensions or a jobs bill that will lower unemployment or anything else that will improve the economy. Of course I don't want to see the rich get richer - but the hell with that if it means people will suffer. We've had enough suffering for the bottom 10% - and for those of us who have fallen into it or are hovering precariously just above it.

[emulatorloo]

2. I've noticed something. In my state unemployment is 6%. Republican politicians act as if it is 23%

I'm in Iowa. Gov Culver balanced the budget and there is a surplus. Branstadt ran against him as if the state had a huge deficit and Culver had recklessly spent and destroyed the state.

That strategy seemed to work.

So no matter what the unemployment numbers are in 2012, Republicans are going to behave as it the economy is about to collapse.

(Another possibility is that Republicans will destroy the economy by voting against raising the debt ceiling, so that we effectively default on our loans. Then the collapse will somehow be blamed on Obama. Hopefully this is not going to happen, I doubt their big business/rich donors would allow that.)

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. I would like anyone who says that it's going to be below 9.5% to explain

the mechanism by which this economy creates jobs.

There is literally nothing there. It can't happen, and it won't.

I've said this before and I'll say it again: Our collective inability to face reality is exactly what's gotten us into this mess. It's long past time to start.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. If You Are Correct Obama And The Dem Senate Are Done

.

[Pale Blue Dot]

6. Reality is ignorant of the consequences. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. If The Repubs Don't Bring It Down They Will Be Done In 2014

I was reading about Japan, where there unemployment never got nearly as high as ours. They used to have a stable government but the past several years has been marked by turnover and turnover of governing parties.

[Nay]

11. Thank you, blue. NO ONE can explain how millions of jobs are suddenly going

to appear out of a unicorn's ass to put ppl back to work. It's a complete denial of reality. The "economy," bought, paid for, and run by and for the rich, will continue to go straight into the toilet because this reality is being ignored. Why is it ignored? Because the rich DON'T GIVE A SHIT whether ANYONE has a job. Everybody, get that through your thick heads. They want to eliminate your job so they can faint and weep about having to offshore the work because (pick one) 'there are no Americans who want this job', 'Americans aren't educated enough' and on and on with the lies.

Americans, the rich are shedding you and your jobs, and moving on to other hosts upon whom they can feed more voraciously and treat more cruelly. This interim exists only to siphon every bit of cash out of you before they leave. Unemployment serves them because as you starve, you cash out your 401K, your house, your cars, and they can suck that money up, too.

The people here who justify Obama's Fed pay freeze and this abomination of a tax bill are doing the Pubs' work for them. Generally, I refuse to debate this much here, because it's futile, but sometimes I can't help myself. If Obama had done the right thing and used the stimulus monies to truly put the country to work on infrastructure in a massive way (not the puny road work going on here and there), we'd be in much better shape even if all that happened was that people were getting PAID to do actual WORK.

"There is literally nothing there. It can't happen, and it won't." Truer words were never spoken, but you, blue, and I are Cassandras who will be proven correct in two years. When it's probably too late.

[Po_d Mainiac]

24. and reality is the U-6

which currently stands at 17%

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6....

[quiller4]

30. U-6 counts people like me as unemployed even though I willingly

left a job to retire early. It also counts as unemployed my PhD candidate nephew who left his teaching job to work fulltime on the final steps of his degree.

[Po_d Mainiac]

33. In all fairness, the U-2 fails to count what?

And exactly what does your PhD candidate nephew have to do with the conversation?

[Pale Blue Dot]

34. I can't help but notice that despite nearly 30 votes for a rate below 9%,

no one has answered my question.

Why is that?

[rusty fender]

12. 6.9%--Randi Rhodes, is that you?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. If He Did That He Should Get Another Nobel Prize

.

[niceypoo]

14. Adding two years to supply side = delay economic recovery by two years

Stupid, stupid, stupid.

Obama wants to own the Bush tax cuts. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Maybe You Are Right

What happens if nothing is done? Folks will have and feel like they have less money because their taxes will go up. They will consequently spend less. More and more of their friends will be broke because their UI ran out and they will think it can happen to them and spend even less...

Do you thing that will have a negative effect on the economy?

[mbperrin]

16. I never felt any effect from the so-called cuts last time, but I'm definitely

not a millionaire.

I will feel the effects when Social Security is perceived as a welfare program rather than the self-funded program that it is now, and when Republicans and other money-lovers demand it be killed due to increasing the deficit, rather than being "borrowed" to the tune of $3 trillion or so dollars right now to fund it.

And if the Congress truly cannot pass just one bill that contains nothing but unemployment assistance, then they deserve whatever the voters deliver to them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. "More Tears Are Shed Over Answered Prayers Than Unanswered Ones"

"And if the Congress truly cannot pass just one bill that contains nothing but unemployment assistance, then they deserve whatever the voters deliver to them."

They will blame President Obama.

[mbperrin]

18. Now why would that be? If the President cannot make it clear that he

wants just one bill that would extend UI and nothing else, and the Congress does not do it, why would Congress not be stuck with it?

The only way the President gets blamed is if he doesn't try for just the UI, and then that's justified.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. The Repubs Opposed An Extension In July That Pres. Obama Asked For

And were rewarded with one of the biggest midterm victories in the history of the republic.

[mbperrin]

20. You're thinking that the majority of voters oppose UI, and that this

was the singular cause of the midterm changes?

Here's a very good analysis of midterms in general -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20...

The myths are:
1. Midterm votes foretell future election results.
2. It's an anti-incumbent year.
3. The president's message is crucial.
4. It's always about the economy.
5. Midterms provide mandates.

Read the article: it's good.



Because if you are right, and government control rests on being opposed to UI, then UI is dead, and justifiably so. If the huge majority of people simply don't want UI to exist, it shouldn't. And if opposing it is the only way to win elections, we need to oppose it. I find this view a little extreme.

What I really wish is that there was more definition between the parties at the national level. Here at the local level, there are noticeable differences, but at the top, it's looking more like just one party: money.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Most Voters Favor UI Insurance

However the Republicans opposed it and paid no political price.

Here's my take. The average American wants a tax cut and doesn't really care if some rich fella gets his and some unemployed fella gets a few bucks too in unemployment insurance...However if he has to forego his tax cut so some rich fella doesn't get his he's going to balk...

[mbperrin]

32. didn't read the article at all, did you? Well, I wish you a happy life and

a wonderful day.

good bye

[phleshdef]

27. The deal does not favor "supply side". Thats BS.

The vast majority of it is middle class tax cut extensions. Are you going to try to argue that middle class stimulus is supply side?

[forty6]

21. I voted for the 8% range. But I sure hope it's down to 6.

I think Obama is going to have a hard enough time getting re-elected as it is.

I also wonder how it can go down much, when banks are holding onto hundreds of billions, not investing it in the USA.

[mwooldri]

23. Which Unemployment Rate?

The % of Americans drawing Unemployment Insurance... or the % of Americans who don't have a job and want one ... ???

And as for the Presidential Election Campaign, it has begun but when is a hard point to tell. In general though there is in my opinion too much campaigning and not enough governing going on in American politics...

[TheKentuckian]

25. They'll pretend like it is 8.5% or so by slowly throwing folks away but it'll be really around 20%

The wealth disparity will surely increase and infrastructure will continue to decay.

[libmom74]

26. If instead of

borrowing and wasting billions on tax cuts we instead created a jobs program to repair our infrastructure we could probably get unemployment numbers below 8%. Instead of a Deficit Reduction Commission packed with anti-SSI and anti-Medicare people Obama had set up a Jobs Commission we might not have seen the losses last November in the House.

[Hippo_Tron]

28. Honestly I don't have a clue

There are just way too many factors that could change. Clinton and Reagan were left with shit economies at the start of their presidencies and there had been recovery by re-election time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Neither Inherited An Economy As Sick As This , Especially Clinton

.

[hay rick]

31. Something over 10%.

The official rate was sitting at 9.8% as of November. The minimal stimulus of tax cuts will be more than offset by increased layoffs and collapsing budgets for states, counties, and municipalities. Nothing will be done to stanch the continuing flood of foreclosures or to loosen the tight credit policies of banks. And the new Republican congress will demand another pound of flesh in the form of federal budget cuts before they are even done digesting the remains of the Democratic corpses left behind on the field where no real battle was waged over tax cuts.