I don't get it - - 2 and 2 is not making 4

[ensho]

the media is claiming the neo cons will win elections and take over the House and Senate

every day and night we hear/see this. polls are presented, etc.

however

where ever Obama goes the crowds are enormous, huge, happy, cheering, ready to vote. women, men, young people; a rainbow of colors.

I know, I know, I really do get it. the media is mostly neo con owned.

but a caution.

on voting day keep your eyes and ears open for vote rigging of any kind. and speak up if you come across it. loud and clear for all to hear.

good luck to us all.

[RagAss]

1. The media is bought and sold....Just vote and hope honest folks count them.

[COLGATE4]

6. You're right. Stalin said "It's not the vote that counts, it's who counts the votes".

He could have been a modern Rethug.

[baldguy]

2. The polls are lying to you.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. K&R! Brilliant!

It scares me because the American people are not as engaged as we are here on DU. My father, a very brilliant man, spends a lot of time watching cable news. Thankfully he doesn't watch Faux, but he does watch CNN and MSNBC (but only Tweety and Morning Hoe; won't watch Rachel or Keith or Ed). Well, CNN might as well be Faux Noise because every story about Democrats and especially Obama is a negative on. This has to make some impact on voters, no?

The good news is that he lives in Jersey so reads the NYTimes, while not perfect, there are some good writers and fairer assessments of this elections. He also receives Newsweek and Time magazines, so again, some balance--albeit very little--in his news sources.

The narratives, messages, and polling do have an impact on voters and morale. The more the M$M tells us that Democrats are going to get crushed, the more we have to worry that It's having a negative affect on voter intent.

[Ozymanithrax]

4. First, the giddy media isn't predicting the Senate, but see the House...

as doable and likely. I disagree with the media.

A powerful narrative for a Republican wave was created between July and September. Many of those polls about enthusiastic voters had as much as 25% of likely voters undecided, but they pointed at the angry white voter enthusiasm and created a narrative around that.

The media narrative is designed to keep people watching commercials. Will Republicans drive their much maligned horse to a win, or will underdog Democrats have a come from behind victory. Watch the news for up to the minute reports.

Republicans maintain the media narrative because excited voters are easier to get to the polls. Depressed unhappy voters stay home because why vote if your ass is already kicked. The dominant narrative of a Republican wave is used to suppress the vote, and it's legal.

Finally, history tells us that in the vast majority of midterm elections the party out of power will win a President's first midterm. And history shows us that in hard economic times, the President's party gets hammered by the opposition. There are real reasons to think Republicans will do well.

But we are a polarized nation, and Obama's improving approval numbers and his willingness to get out and campaign, along with improving poll numbers for Democrats now that we are close to the electing and people are paying attention show a story where Democrats are not likely to be blown out. But the narrative has an inertia of its own and once crated is difficult to change.

GOTV can make all the difference now.

[LiberalArkie]

5. And why does the media do it? Conflict sells. No one watches the news

when everything is peaceful and everyone is getting along. Conflict sells, war sells.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Look, I'm not one to become a downer...

But sometimes large crowds don't always tell the story.

Pres. Obama is drawing large crowds in cities/states where Democrats have traditionally done well.

Don't forget that in 1984, Walter Mondale had huge crowds and it amounted to one of the largest landslides in American presidential history.



When they say location, location, location - they're right.

Obama is going to draw huge crowds in traditional Democratic states like Massachusetts, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, Oregon and California.

That's not to put a damper on these things, though. Democrats will keep the House & Senate by energizing the voters in those states. The seats we lose are going to be conservative seats that were Republican prior to 2006. We just need to make sure the Democratic seats, like the one Harry Reid is fighting for his life to keep, remain Democratic.

That's where these polls look good.

Doesn't mean we're going to surge and keep all the seats won in 2006 and expand on both majorities, though.

[vaberella]

8. It's a pause for thought.

I wonder what the crowd would have been like for Meek if Obama went to Florida.

[Jumping John]

9. Maybe it is a tactic to convince the apathetic Dems to stay home & not vote. I voted early. n/t

[eppur_se_muova]

10. 2 and 2 is 5. All well-adjusted citizens know this. nt

[lunatica]

11. Fuzzy math

It's been around since Reagan. 2 and 2 adds up to whatever the powers that be want.

[secondwind]

12. I'm poll watching on 11/2 in a mostly Hispanic district -- to make sure there is no

voter harrassment or anything improper. It's a s*** job, but somebody's got to do it!

[Imajika]

13. Large crowds in friendly territory just doesn't mean that much...

Someone beat me to it, but Walter Mondale drew huge crowds in 1984 - and wound up getting crushed in the election.

Even Nader drew huge crowds at big universities in 2000 and yet got a tiny sliver of the vote.

This is why you have to be very careful about the echo-chamber effect. It is very easy to hang out with your like minded friends, at a place that is overwhelmingly Democratic, or even a forum like this and think Democrats are surging and a big win is coming - only to be shell shocked on election day if we get our ass kicked.

You can cherry pick which polls you believe, which media you watch, what information you chose to accept as true - but make no mistake, if history is any guide we are going to lose a lot of seats and the right wingers are extraordinarily motivated this cycle.

I think things might have improved a bit as we close in on Nov 2, but we will still be very lucky just to hold the House.