My Senate Prediction 10/22: Dem: 50 GOP: 43 Toss-up: 7

[WI_DEM]

Currently 40 Dems and 23 Rep are not running in 2010:

Safe/Likely Dem: Hawaii, New York (Schumer), NY (Gillibrand), Maryland, Vermont, Delaware, Oregon, Connecticut

Leaning Dem: California, Washington

Safe/likely GOP: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Iowa, Indiana, Arkansas, Florida

Leaning GOP: Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, New Hampshire

Toss-up: West Virginia, Illinois, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Pennsylvania

Analysis:
I did up grade from last week Connecticut from leaning Dem to likely dem. I upgraded Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Kentucky from leaning GOP to toss-ups. As of right now I see Dems with 50 Senators and the GOP with 43 and 7 (WVA, IL, NV, CO, WI, KY, PA) are toss-ups. In most of these states (particularly heartening is PA) polls are showing Dems gaining ground.

[Beetwasher]

1. It's Within The Realm Of Possibility, And Considering Current Trajectories, That We Could Sweep The

Toss ups and even pick up a lean Repub.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

8. You took the words right out of my mouth :). Sweep tossups + 2-3 lean GOP would be sweet indeed! nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Those Toss Ups Are Fliiping Scary

I don't think we have a lead in any of them in aggregate polling.

[WI_DEM]

4. It will come down to GOTV

I think while overall we may be down--they are all within the margin of error--and momentum appears to be with Dems in several of them. My guess is that we win 2 or 3 of the toss-ups and will end up with a 52-53 Dem Senate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. In 2006 Which Was A "Democratic Year" We Won Every Or Almost Every Close Race

The race that comes immediately to mind in the Webb-Maccacca race.


West Virginia just blows my mind. A four time loser might beat a candidate with a 69% approval rating. West Virginia has changed so much since Mike Dukakis carried it in 1988.

[WI_DEM]

6. After the "hicky" ad all polls were showing movement toward Manchin

(including one showing Manchin up by 10)and then to change the narrative we get Rasmussen and it's off shoot with Pulse polling in associating with Fox News which have showing the GOP leading again. I'd like to see a non-Rasmussen poll on this race because almost anytime polls come out showing the Dems gaining ground there is a Ras poll which comes out to disprove or neutralize it so that it changes the narrative.

[Beetwasher]

7. Yup, Rasmussen Is Skewing The Aggregates BIG TIME This Year

They are going full tilt propoganda mode. Add Gallup into the mix and together they can really skew the aggregates since there's no counterweight pulling data the other way in such an extremely egregious manner and both of them are so predominant in the field.

[Tippy]

3. K&R

[Kdillard]

9. I agree with your assessment. We really need to GOTV in all those states.

Hoping we sweep or at least get three or four of them.

[Tatiana]

10. I think we pull out IL, WI, and PA.

I honestly think Harry Reid is the weakest candidate and the NV seat is the most vulnerable.

[grantcart]

11. sound reasoning but when you list 7 as 'toss up' its more of an analytic update than a prediction.

[GSLevel9]

12. it'll be 50-48 see you on Wed morning... nt

[mikekohr]

13. 54 to 56

55 being my magic number

mike kohr
Bureau County Democrats (illinois)
http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/p/job-growth.html

[recadna]

14. Most of the tossups will probably end up in GOP

You win these tossups when you have the wind on the back. I mean, it seems we have won every damn close senate in 2006 and 2008.

In 2006:
Clarie McCaskill 49%, Jim Talent 47%
Jon Tester 49%, Conrad Burns 48%
Jim Webb 49%, George Allen 49%

In 2008:
Mark Begich 48%, Ted Stevens 47%
Al Franken 42%, Norman Coleman 42%
Jeff Merkely 48%, Gordon Smith 46%