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Edited on Tue Oct-12-10 09:43 AM by karynnj
First off it is likely voters (the reason I looked). However the entire poll is far more interesting. Some of what is included are:
1) They ask how much various people/groups helped or hurt the economy. The most blamed are the mortgage industry (88%), Wall Street and banks (82%) and Bush (66%). None are seen as helping more than hurting - though Obama is close - 47% hurting, 45% helping. Republicans in Congress fare worse than Democrats - though both are blamed. (33/53 vs 25/57 )
To me, this suggests that, in spite of the Republican noise machine, some truth is getting through. It also suggests that if someone could design compelling ads on banking reform or anything done to rein in predatory loans (and it IS far more complicated to get a loan now even with excellent credit.), with little help from republicans , it could maybe more the numbers slightly in the right direction.
2) On the deficit, 55% feel it is out of control and threatens our economic future. Yet, 48% think the Republican pledge to America is "a good idea". It was described in the question as wanting to cut government spending, except on defense, Medicare and SS. But, they then have a table where people are asked if they would consider cutting spending or raising taxes on various things or if that should be off the table. What is clear is that when faced with reality, people are reluctant to make cuts almost anywhere, but they are more against raising middle class taxes. What they are most willing to do is to subject higher income to SS taxes (raise the cap) which only 22% take off the table and repealing the Bush tax cuts to the wealthy which only 30% take off the table.
To me, what this says is that people likely are closer to Obama's plan on taxes than the Republican not raising any taxes. Consider that when faced with picking real things where taxes can be raised or spending cut, the least popular was raising middle class taxes, but the least unpopular is raising taxes on people making at least $107,000 (where EICA taxes are currently capped)and repealing the Bush tax cuts for those even wealthier. The cuts that are the least unpopular are privatize Medicare with assistance to low income seniors (Did people understand what this meant? - do I? (I would interpret it as eliminate Medicare and give vouchers to low income seniors)!!!) and to stop extending unemployment beyond 26 weeks (this is just sad) - both of these are taken off the table by 38%. That these were the least unpopular suggests that many respondents are looking at what personally helps/hurts just them. Could the depth of the economic trouble (and for some less personally impacted the fear of economic trouble) have made people less altruistic and far less positive?
At any rate - these two sections mean that the pledge is better received than I had heard, but only because people obviously don't get that the numbers don't add up. Democrats might do well to directly attack Republican credibility as deficit hawks because they want to keep the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. (Giannoulias, for one, did this well in his debate with Kirk on Meet the Press.)
3) The top issue for almost everyone is domestic and economic - less than 10% list the wars. When asked directly, 60% see Afghanistan as a lost cause. This December will be interesting as it is clear the military is prepared to stay for many years - and Obama clearly wants an exit plan - and most Americans agree. (though this is fickle, the Republicans will likely do what they did with Vietnam and create a myth that success was there - and Democrats didn't go the distance.)
4) There is 47% support for repealing health care, but when asked if you want to repeal 8 of the key provisions - there are high percents wanting to keep them - only taxing Cadillac plans (62%) and mandates (51%) are things people want repealed. (The first is a PR battle we lost because we did not act to make it clear that this is not "taxing" a plan, but "limiting the size of a tax break currently given". (It is interesting that eliminating both of these would increase the deficit - the very thing they are strongly against.
5) They have a section on things that could influence votes. This shows that getting through the Republican noise machine has not really been done yet. Look at the top things that they say make people vote FOR someone:
Has worked cooperatively with the other party - 67% (This is 180 degrees from a tea party person, who prides themselves on not doing that.
Supports government spending to create jobs and stimulate the economy - 59%. Why hasn't this hurt the party of "NO". Do people not hear of the bills filibustered.
Supports withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan, regardless of whether conditions are getting better or worse - 48% (this is less than 50%, but only 34% are less likely)
Look at the things that they find make people LESS likely:
Voted to give financial assistance to the banking industry when it was in crisis - 51% (In spite of this having been successful)
Supports changing the Constitution to prevent children of non-citizens born in the U.S. from automatically becoming citizens - 48%
Campaign was aided by advertising paid for by anonymous business groups -48% (I bet this is new - and means that Obama et al are making this stick)
Voted to give financial assistance to the auto industry when it was in crisis - 45% (Again - this appears successful)
It should also be noted that voting for the health care bill is net positive -- 45% are more likely to vote for and 40% more likely to vote against. There is a lot that is interesting in this section that suggests that we are where people want us to be - but they don't always know the facts.
After all those encouraging things, people think that almost everything would be better if the republicans gain control of Congress. This makes no sense in light of the earlier answers unless many are living in Fox world.
To benchmark this survey with others - Obama is at 47% approval/48% disapproval
One clue of the likely voter screen is that on a question that asks people if they ever supported Obama since 2007, 45% never did.
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