So do you think that the media will take notice of the national democratic surge in recent polls?

[WI_DEM]

As I recall it began in Washington State--with Sen. Murray gaining ground:

SurveyUSA 9/19-21/10 609 LV 48 50 - 3 +2D
Rasmussen 9/14/10 750 LV 46 51 1 2 +5D
CNN/Time 9/10-14/10 906 LV 44 53 2 1 +9D
Elway 9/9-12/10 500 LV 41 50 3 7 +9D

Then it expanded to California in the Senate race:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Fiorina Boxer Other Undecided Margin
CNN/Time 9/24-28/10 786 LV 43 52 3 2 +9D
PPIC 9/19-26/10 1104 LV 35 42 6 17 +7D
USC/LATimes 9/15-22/10 838 LV 43 51 - 4 +8D
SurveyUSA 9/19-21/10 610 LV 43 49 6 2 +6D
Field 9/14-21/10 599 LV 41 47 - 12 +6D
Rasmussen 9/20/10 750 LV 43 47 4 6 +4D

and to the Governor's race:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Whitman Brown Other Undecided Margin
CNN/Time 9/24-28/10 786 LV 43 52 3 2 +9D
PPIC 9/19-26/10 1104 LV 38 37 6 18 +1R
USC/LATimes 9/15-22/10 838 LV 44 49 1 5 +5D
SurveyUSA 9/19-21/10 610 LV 43 46 8 3 +3D

Then it began moving Eastward into Kentucky:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Paul Conway Undecided Margin
SurveyUSA 9/21-23/10 561 LV 49 47 4 +2R
Benenson (D-DSCC) 9/20-22/10 800 LV 45 42 13 +3R
DailyKos.com/PPP (D) 9/11-12/10 959 LV 49 42 9 +7R
Rasmussen 9/7/10 750 LV 51 38 8 +13R

and into Minnesota for it's Governor's race:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Emmer Dayton Horner Other Undecided Margin
MPR/Humphrey Institute 9/22-26/10 750 LV 27 38 16 - 20 +11D
Star Tribune / PSRA 9/20-23/10 949 LV 30 39 18 - 12 +9D
Rasmussen 9/22/10 1000 LV 42 41 9 6 2 +1R
SurveyUSA 9/12-14/10 1326 LV 36 38 18 - 4 +2D
MPR/Humphrey Institute 8/25-29/10 750 LV 34 34 13 - 19 0

And over into Wisconsin for the Governor's race:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Walker Barrett Undecided Margin
FOX 9/25/10 1000 LV 49 45 4 +4R
CNN/Time 9/17-21/10 963 LV 53 42 2 +11R
DailyKos.com/PPP (D) 9/18-19/10 677 LV 50 41 8 +9R
Rasmussen 9/15/10 750 LV 51 43 4 +8R

Down into Illinois Senate race:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Kirk Giannoulias Jones Other Undecided Margin
CNN/Time 9/24-28/10 828 LV 42 43 8 4 4 +1D
PPP (D) 9/23-26/10 470 LV 40 36 8 3 13 +4R
FOX 9/25/10 1000 LV 42 40 7 2 9 +2R
Rasmussen 9/21/10 750 LV 44 41 4 4 8 +3R
We Ask America 9/13/10 1379 LV 39 36 4 2 19 +3R
Rasmussen 9/7/10 750 LV 41 37 9 5 9 +4R

And the IL Governor's Race:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Brady Quinn Whitney Other Undecided Margin
CNN/Time 9/24-28/10 828 LV 40 38 4 2 2 +2R
FOX 9/25/10 1000 LV 46 36 8 1 9 +10R
We Ask America 9/13/10 1379 LV 42 32 4 2 16 +10R
Rasmussen 9/7/10 750 LV 50 37 4 7 3 +13R

Ohio Governor's race has been moving steadily towards Strickland:

STRICKLAND LEADS KASICH BY 1 POINT

Building on a recent trend of favorable public opinion survey results, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) now has forged into the lead --- 41% to 40% --- over John Kasich (R) in a very hot gubernatorial race, according to a recently-concluded poll by the highly-respected Benenson Strategy Group of Washington, DC.

The Pennsylvania Senate Race is now a toss up in this new poll:

He's among the 11 percent of undecided voters who likely will swing this Senate contest between two ideological opponents grappling to represent a moderate state, according to a Susquehanna Polling & Research survey conducted for the Tribune-Review. The poll found Toomey leading Sestak 45 percent to 42 percent, with a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/regional/s_701759.html

The Pennsylvania Gov race is getting closer:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Corbett Onorato Other Undecided Not Voting Margin
Suffolk 9/24-27/10 500 RV 47 40 - 13 - +7R
Franklin and Marshall College 9/20-26/10 436 LV 36 32 - 38 - +4R
Muhlenberg 9/18-23/10 445 LV 46 37 - 17 - +9R
Magellan (R) 9/21/10 1430 LV 50 38 3 9 - +12R

It looks likely the Dems will pick up a governorship in Rhode Island:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Robitaille Caprio Chafee Block Other Undecided Margin
NBC 10/Quest 9/15-17/10 495 RV 13 36 24 2 - 25 +12D
Rasmussen 9/16/10 500 LV 23 30 33 - - 9 +3i
Rasmussen 8/17/10 500 LV 20 38 32 - 2 8 +6D

And in Maryland the Dem governor is gaining ground and is now well ahead:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Ehrlich O'Malley Other Undecided Not Voting Margin
Washington Post 9/22-26/10 730 LV 41 52 2 4 - +11D
Rasmussen 9/15/10 750 LV 47 50 1 3 - +3D
Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks 8/13-18/10 551 LV 41 47 - 13 - +6D
Rasmussen 8/17/10 750 LV 47 47 2 4 - 0

And they tried to tell us that Gilldibrand in NY may be in a close race, but that ain't so:

Pollster Dates N/Pop DioGuardi Gillibrand Other Undecided Not Voting Margin
Marist 9/19-22/10 617 LV 42 54 - 4 - +12D
SurveyUSA 9/20-21/10 572 LV 44 45 8 4 - +1D
Quinnipiac 9/26-20/10 751 LV 42 48 2 9 - +6D

We still have a lot of work to do, but the latest polling indicates that Dems are beginning to wake up and several races thought of as lost are now getting much closer.

www.pollster.com

[still_one]

1. No, because that would mean their argument that Democrats would be finished in 2010 would prove them

wrong

[Pirate Smile]

2. Kick and Recommend. Why isn't this on the GP?

Good info

[Exultant Democracy]

3. The news actors already have their scripts for this election...

[karynnj]

4. Mantioning it was happening would give it momentum - and possibly

ignite Republican infighting -- but I suspect that it won't be covered.

[jberryhill]

5. By November 3 at the latest, yes /nt

[COLGATE4]

6. NFW

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

7. Of course not. It would complete distort the narrative that Democrats are going to get blown out!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

8. Does anyone know how the Maryland governor's race looks? I'm getting worried...

seeing more Ehrlich signs in my very liberal side of town.

Where's O'Malley!!?!?!?!?

[fugop]

10. Looks good in the latest ...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_092910.html

[DCBob]

9. Nice!

Thanks for pulling this all together. It shows a real trend across the nation.

[treestar]

11. No. You can bet on that!

[Mass]

12. No. This would change the narrative. This morning, some local reporter on CBS was trying to explain

how the relatively good numbers in MA are bad for the governor. (OK, the numbers are worse than they were 4 years ago, but she was basically dismissing them as non significant because it did not fit her meme that Baker will be the savior of the state).

[Kablooie]

13. What surge? Those are just numbers. Facts. Facts don't matter to the right.

[simmonsj811]

14. KICK!!

:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :fistbump:

[PopSixSquish]

15. Is This a Rhetorical Question?

[golddigger]

16. LOl...NO!

[leftynyc]

17. I hope they don't

My fervent wish is they and the republicans are stunned into a stupor the day after election - when the rubes realize they threw their money and their votes away and the Democrats still control congress. I want their dreams of power CRUSHED under reality.

[FBaggins]

18. No.. because no such national surge is there to find.

I mean no offense, but there are now polls of dozens of races and some will move up and some will move down. If all you do is single out the ones that move up, it seems like a national surge... particularly if you're comfortable (as many here are) entirely ignoring polls if you don't like the pollster.

We've seen claims of this surge for two months now... but many of those races reverted back to the norm and the original posters for those surge threads ignore it and move on to the next good news.

Yes, CA appears to have clearly moved to safer terirory... but other races (WV & CT) have moved in the other direction. Yes, Murray gained some significant ground... but the move has yet to be confirmed by additional polling (and one out today shows her sliding back).

Take another look at IL. Is there really momentum or just one decent poll? A month ago there had been four consecutive polls showing the race tied or slightly favoring Giannoulias. PPP released their poll at the same time as that Time poll (and polled on some of the same days), yet they moved from a +2D to +4R. One may be right and the other wrong... but evidence of a "surge"?

We still have a lot of work to do, but the latest polling indicates that Dems are beginning to wake up and several races thought of as lost are now getting much closer.

Which is normal for this phase of an election. Races (particularly statewide races) tend to tighten up over the final weeks. But there are also races that we assumed we would win that are also getting much closer. Some examples:

1) WV has obviously been beaten to death. I don't know whether we win it or not, but we're clearly not surging there.
2) I still think that we win CT, but the last two times I've said that... the polls tighten up again. The bleeding there needs to stop quickly.
3) FL has obviously ceased to be competitive.
4) CO is moving in that direction.
5) Two polls are out from the NJ 3rd (Adler). Nobody had this race as a tossup (that I know of), but both polls sure make it look like one. Adler leads by 42/39 or 41/39 depending on the poll. That's down from Zogby's eight point lead just a week earlier.
6) Here in NC, the 7th district wasn't anywhere in the top 70 or so most endangered democrats. It isn't even on Silver's "101 seats in play" list... but Survey USA released a poll yesterday showing the republican leading 46-45.
7) The FL 8th was supposed to be a tossup, but yesterday's polling showed the republican leading 43-36. An incumbent polling in the mid 30s isn't going anywhere but home.

[FrenchieCat]

19. Only to work harder at supressing them.....

as well as depressing the Democratic vote.

That's how they roll.

On my local radio station, the guest was Wolf Blitzer,
telling us what a good change the GOP has in taking over
both houses.

I wanted to call in, and ask him if the media coludes with each other to provide
a story line based on misinformation derived from manipulated polls.
Ask him why the media relies on polling so much, considering that I know that if
I call a certain zip code at 3:00 p.m. on a Tuesday afternoon, I'm gonna get the response
that I wished for as well.

[gkhouston]

20. Not until they've invented a new doom narrative. n/t

[jenmito]

21. I gotta give Chris Matthews for covering it. He has shown a "Scoreboard" nightly

showing the polls which have Dems. up or closing in with the Repub. as well as polls showing Repubs. ahead. He's been pretty honest in showing Dems.' improvement.