Five new house polls (CA-44, FL-22, MI-07, WVA-03, WI-07

[WI_DEM]

THE U.S. HOUSE

CA-44: Calvert's lead in competitive rematch sits at 11 points
A poll sponsored by Democrats.com has taken one of the first looks of the cycle at a 2008 rematch that was decided by just four points in 2008. This time around, however, Republican Ken Calvert seems to be in a slightly better position (PDF file). Calvert leads Democrat Bill Hedrick by eleven points (49-38), according to the poll. Most of the undecideds come from core Democratic constituencies, implying that some tightening of the race is possible.

FL-22: Democratic poll gives Klein five-point advantage
A new Harstad Research poll for Project New West heads...well...east, looking at the 22nd district in Florida. Democratic incumbent Ron Klein enjoys a five-point edge over Republican Allen West, according to the poll. The survey was taken after last week's mini-kerfluffle, where the Florida Democratic Party included West's social security number in a mailer, raising howls of protest from the GOP candidate's camp.

MI-07: Dem pollster puts vulnerable Dem incumbent up by four points
For most of the cycle, it appeared that Republican Tim Walberg was the betting favorite to reclaim his House seat in a rematch with freshman Democrat Mark Schauer. That might well be changing. Just last week, a GOP pollster had the margin for Walberg cut to four points. And, apparently, there was more evidence in the offing. A poll from the district late last week, by Democratic pollsters Myers Research, actually puts Schauer into the lead. The poll puts Schauer at 49% and Walberg at 45%. Third party candidates narrow the race ever so slightly (45-43-5).

WV-03: DCCC poll confirms wide lead for veteran Democrat Rahall
Nick Rahall seems to be holding his ground, despite running as a Democrat in the gradually more hostile terrain of West Virginia. A new independent expenditure poll for the DCCC, conducted by Global Strategy Group, gives Rahall a double digit lead (55-37) over Republican Elliott "Spike" Maynard. GOPers had claimed earlier in the cycle that the race was a tossup.

WI-07: Dem poll shows a coin flip in tight open seat
Democrat Julie Lassa's campaign has released a new internal poll by Garin-Hart-Yang, and it is hard to argue that it inspires a ton of confidence. The poll gives Republican Sean Duffy the lead, albeit by a statistically significant single point (42-41), with conservative Indie candidate Gary Kauther notching 7% of the vote. The district has been held for decades by Democrat David Obey, but has been at least a little swing-y at the presidential level, implying a competitive race even in a neutral climate nationally.

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