why on earth do we think that we will win a DADT vote in December

[dsc]

All of the following appointed seats are up in November (WV, CO, IL, DE, and NY). The chances of us winning all five is slim. If the election were today we would love two. If we lose even 1 we are down yet another Senator in that lame duck session. The fact is this was completely bungled and now gays will pay for this. We won't be able to serve until at least 2013 and probably 2017.

[Unvanguard]

1. Getting five Republican votes is not out of the question post-review.

Nor is getting Lincoln's or Pryor's. (Lincoln, at least, will probably not have to worry about political consequences anymore.)

[name not needed]

3. She doesn't have to worry about them now.

She has no chance in hell of getting reelected. She might as well grow a spine and get something right before her disaster of a political career is over.

[Unvanguard]

6. I'm sorry if my post suggested that I am somehow excusing her despicable vote today.

I intended nothing of the sort. My point was simply that, rational or not, she may be worried about trying to alleviate the electoral disaster that is looming right now, and if that was a factor in her vote, it will be gone by December.

It is worth noting that, to my knowledge, neither Pryor nor Lincoln suggested publicly that they would vote against cloture before they actually did so. That suggests that they might have not done so had sixty votes actually been attainable, suggesting a political motive for their "No" votes.

[Kdillard]

2. Perhaps because we have to get this done

which was the whole purpose of putting this in the defense budget. The Republicans willl have to cave unless they want to explain why they are playing games and not supporting the military. The Republicans can't remove the repeal because they don't have the votes. Also during the lame duck session passions will have cooled. I firmly believe the repugs did this to help them at the polls.

[ruggerson]

5. how does it help them at the polls?

80% of the nation opposes them on this.

[Unvanguard]

7. Because it will help demoralize the Democratic base.

Harry Reid brought it up, like the DREAM Act, as a sort of last-minute appeal to the liberals in the Democratic base; the time on the Senate session before the break for the elections is running out. This was the subtext behind the politicking from both sides surrounding the effort: Reid wanted to get this done now and fast, the Republicans (including those with no substantive objection either to DADT or to the DREAM Act) didn't.

"When" played as much of a role in this result as "what."

[David Zephyr]

15. Exactly. This was a loser for the GOP today.

They hated having to vote on this. Their rhetoric was everything about everything except DADT, except for a few cranks.

We don't need 5 votes. When Harry Reid votes (and this will come up again), it takes us to 57. This thing is going down.

Frankly, I was amazed to see 56 (57) votes for our cause. And the silver lining is that once we get it to the floor (we will), it only takes 51 votes (or 50 with Biden).

And you bring up the over arching point, 80% of Americans don't like this and feel it is unfair.

Today's voting brings this to a head and exposes the bigots who didn't want to have to vote on this.

[LonePirate]

4. I can sympathize with any service member who wants to quit due to the CiC's lack of leadership here

They are better men and women than I would be if they decide to stick it out. If only every on the left side of the aisle in Washington had as much courage and patriotism as they do.

[vaberella]

14. How doesn't he show leadership?n/t

[KingFlorez]

8. I think the chances of winning all five are about even

New York and Delaware are likely holds, WV leans hold and CO and IL are tossups at this point. I say we keep at least 4 out of those five.

[Unvanguard]

9. Even classifying them as toss-ups gives only a one-in-four chance of a sweep.

And polling in both CO and IL is bad for the Democrats at the moment.

[dave29]

10. Never give up.

Ever.

[nevergiveup]

11. Yep, we can't give up.

We must keep fighting. We will win.

[Skittles]

12. gays have always served

[vaberella]

13. I don't know a single person who thinks that. n/t

[dsc]

17. we can't pass it with 59 Democratic Senators

we won't have more than 55 (and that is if we have a great election) in 2011. We will likely have more like 51 or 52. If we couldn't pass it with 59 we sure as Hell can't pass it with 51 or 52 and that isn't even considering the House which nearly every prognosticator says we will definately lose.

[CreekDog]

16. yes, it was not handled well and it's not the only issue not handled well

[terrya]

18. That's a good point

Here in Illinois, on November 2nd, we're voting for US Senator twice. We'll be voting for a candidate to serve between November 3rd and January 2011. The 2nd vote will be for the full 6 year term starting in January 2011. On November 3rd, Roland Burris will no longer be a United States Senator.

As you said, Mark Kirk could win in November. Kirk is against repealing DADT. And if he wins both votes, there goes 1 of the pro DADT repeal votes right there.

I very much support Alexi Giannoulias (I'm going to volunteer for his campaign). But the race here is a dead heat.