CQ Political Wire: Forecast Says GOP Takeover More Likely

[flpoljunkie]

Forecast Says GOP Takeover More Likely

The Cook Political Report raised its House forecast "from a Republican net gain of between 32 and 42 seats to a gain of between 35 and 45 seats, with the odds of an outcome larger than that range greater than the odds of a lesser outcome."

Republicans would need a net turnover of 39 seats to take control of the chamber.

"At this point, only 214 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 181 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 40 seats are in the Toss Up column. While this would imply an advantage for Democrats, given the continuous erosion we have seen in dozens of contests so far this cycle, races shifting from Solid and Likely Democrat to Lean Democratic and Toss Up, we would be surprised if there was not more movement over the 78 days from now until Election Day."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/08/17/forecast_says_gop_takeover_more_likely.html

The 'Tan Man' and his GOP cohorts are the foot soldiers for the top 2%. Their goals are more tax cuts for the rich and a return to the deregulation that brought us the foreclosure crisis, the Wall Street bailout and the Great Recession. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other GOP corporate front groups are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into the mid-terms to put their lackeys back in power.

We must not let that happen.


In this Friday, Jan. 29, 2010 file photo, President Barack Obama holds up a document of Republican solutions given to him by House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, before he spoke to Republican lawmakers at the GOP House Issues Conference in Baltimore. President Barack Obama says an economic plan by the House Republican leader just repeats job-killing policies of the past and would take the country 'backward at a time when we need to keep America moving forward.'

[WI_DEM]

1. It's the dog days of summer that is for sure

Poll after poll show that most undecideds are dems or dem leaning indies, so if some enthusiasm can be ignited then hopefully things will tighten. I'm still hoping the house will remain dem--even if by a few seats. Until the job picture brightens things are going to be bleak but I don't see how voters feel a GOP congress will help?

[catgirl]

8. How the hell can ANY dem be undecided?

It makes no sense to me.

[amandabeech]

30. The economy's in the crapper, so it's time to throw the bums out.

I think that many people are just that pissed or desperate, even Dems.

[SpiralHawk]

2. Tan Tan Tan - The Tanny Man Scam (R)

Thanks for ruining my day with this bogus RepubliCorp prophecy.

[Robbins]

3. Unfortunetly

Independents are probally going to make him Speaker of the house come january.

[flpoljunkie]

4. Thanks for great Boehner pic! Don't like it either, but Dems ignore voters' anger at their peril.

Like, I said, the Dems need to make sure it doesn't happen by doing something that will visibly and immediately help people.

[denimgirly]

5. These days there doesnt seem to be any real difference who is in charge

Both parties take corruption bribes for their votes and so i see no real difference who is in charge in Congress. However i do notice republicans have balls to get things done for the rich and no one else. Democrats just sit around hoping for excuses. I will never vote (R) but once again am disappointed by democrats and will stay home.

[flpoljunkie]

6. Am disappointed, too, but would never stay home and let total corporate whore R's back in power.

If we stay home, they win. It is part of what they are trying to do. Make Democrats feel so disgusted and so dispirited, they stay home. Don't let them win!

My hope is the House will pass the Fair Elections Now Act. Nancy Pelosi is said to have promised a vote this 111th session of Congress. There are also 24 cosponsors for the Fair Elections Now Act in the Senate. I am going to be really disappointed if Congress fails to act this year, and President Obama does not lead on this issue. The lame duck session would be a perfect time to pass this and try to turn our corrupt political system around.

Until then, I am will be voting for Democrats and working hard to keep their feet to the fire on issues that matter.

[catgirl]

9. You'll stay home, huh?

That's exactly the repug tactic these days. Try to anger the dems, so they'll stay home.
Good one, denimgirly. I doubt it will work. ;-)

[Name removed]

20. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JamesA1102]

14. When you make a statement like that

you only expose your ignorance.

[Ikonoklast]

22. You stay home, then.

But if you do, your criticisms of government are meritless as you disenfranchise yourself.


But then again, you have been relentlessly critical of Democrats in general, and Obama in specific, so I doubt your vote mattered much to Democrats anyway.

[EC]

7. I think they are wrong

I think it's going to be a repeat of 06 myself...

[flpoljunkie]

10. Dems must GOTV--doing something concrete, i.e. payroll tax holiday, might help, appointing Warren

to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

[LiberalFighter]

11. They are refusing to take the Tea Party effect into consideration.

Charlie Cook is also a whack job.

[flpoljunkie]

12. The Dems better not count on the Tea Party to save them.

They ignore Charlie Cook's warning at their peril.

[JamesA1102]

13. Charlie Cook is a conservative

and always skews his findings in favor of the GOP.

[tritsofme]

27. Any evidence of this, or do you just dismiss results you don't like?

I'm betting on the latter.

[ProSense]

15. Interesting.

Republicans would need a net turnover of 39 seats to take control of the chamber.

"At this point, only 214 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 181 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 40 seats are in the Toss Up column.

In this projection, Dems have a 33 seat advantage, Republicans need 39 seats and 40 seats are toss up. Republicans would have to win every toss-up seat to take control. A loss of five of those seats means Dems remain in control.

Republican could miraculously take over, but it doesn't seem "more likely."

[Robbins]

17. 2010

Now considering the Democrats picked up 30 seats In 2006 It would be hard for Republicans to pick up 39 seats.However the trouble for
democrats besides Independents not following news nad not realizing Republicans have made It very difficult for Obama to get things
done,and forgetting the people who got us Into the mess are Republicans are Obama's continuing dropping approval ratings which can
cause Democrats to be disillused and could cause some to think Republicans are going to win why bother voting.

[Cosmocat]

25. Right ....

not buying it ...

Cook generally plays it straight, but this is the prototype Rs on the prowl, dems on the run stuff ...

If Ds were in the same spot, it would be HIGHLY unlikely that EVERYTHING falls into place ...

[CanonRay]

16. I checked the races for Colorado and Cook is full of crap

He has the Salazar race in CD-3 as close, and he's a lock. Markey's race while closer in CD-4, she's still got a good lead. The Rethugs are going to pick up ZIP in Colorado, and their party is in total disarray.

[FrenchieCat]

18. Cook political report cooking its books again......

Great! :applause:

[flpoljunkie]

19. 'Independent, nonpartisan' Charlie Cook blasted by the right in '09 for attending Netroots Nation

Charlie 'Daily Kos' Cook? (Updated: Cook Responds)

By Tim Graham | Mon, 09/28/2009 - 22:41

Political analyst Charlie Cook sells himself as "independent, nonpartisan" pundit, but then how does it look when he’s donating his time and talent to a fundraising auction for Netroots Nation, the hard-left blogger convention? He’s offering "Coffee with Charlie Cook and a 1-Year Subscription to the Cook Report."

UPDATE: Charlie Cook responded by e-mail with this message:

So with a waiting period, it doesn't seem like much of an opportunity to respond immediately to the item about me this morning, but maybe you will post this anyway.

Did I participate in a panel at Netroots Nation and when asked, did I say yes on donating "a lunch with Charlie Cook? Yes.

http://newsbusters.org/people/charlie-cook

[and-justice-for-all]

21. Nah, not falling for this shit....

this negative Nancy crap is annoying. You get set in this mind set of fail and you will fail, I am not going along with this bullshit routine. The gop will not gain anything in November.

[otohara]

23. Good

We deserve it!

crappy country filled with fucking idiots - hell returns in November

[Cognitive_Resonance]

24. How about putting disagreement and disappoint aside for a bit,

and ratchet-up our intensity? Look at the big picture and think about it. Much is at risk this election. Turnout/GOTV is key.

That said, I actually do not think the situation is as dire as the media drama queens are predicting. To a large extent they have grossly over-hyped the influence of Tea Party/hard-right intensity for the sake of ratings.

[Dawson Leery]

29. In 2006, the media was pointing out

every problem that the Democrats had and magnified those problems to give the narrative that the Democrats could NOT win the congress. This time around, the media (corporate owned) is downplaying every problem with the Republicans.

[AlinPA]

26. The republicans will have the money. The SC ruling will give them a billion $ easily.

They can really get out their vote with that kind of money as well as swamp the TV and radio with ads.

[Dawson Leery]

28. I am not seeing Republicans

taking any seats in Blue Northeastern areas and the same goes for the West Coast. Even CT-4 (Himes) should win by a comfortable margin against his two faced wannabe mobster opponent.

[AtomicKitten]

31. Joe B says Dems will retain both houses of Congress.

:loveya: -----> http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/08/20/biden.dnc.meeting/

[newspeak]

32. I want to see a massive swarm of democrats in both houses

then they can go over the health insurance deform bill and make some progressive changes. No more arbitrating with the party of no for a weak, pro-corporate anti-plebe bill. The way the economy is going we really do need a FDR and massive economic reforms.