NH-Gov: Lynch Up Double Digits But Under 50

[ccharles000]

PPP (4/17-18, New Hampshire voters, no trendlines) (primary numbers):

John Lynch (D-inc): 47
John Stephen (R): 36
Undecided: 18

John Lynch (D-inc): 47
Jack Kimball (R): 35
Undecided: 18

John Lynch (D-inc): 47
Karen Testerman (R): 29
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±2.6%)

John Stephen (R): 29
Karen Testerman (R): 15
Jack Kimball (R): 10
Undecided: 46
(MoE: ±3.9%)

As PPP's thorough visit to New Hampshire comes to a close, it looks like John Lynch, New Hampshire's three-term Democratic incumbent Governor going for a barely-precedented fourth term, is going to have a tougher race than was initially expected. Of course, that's all relative: the broadly popular Lynch has gotten accustomed to winning by huge margins (70-28 in 2008, 74-26 in 2006), and most pundits expected nothing different this year, so the fact that he's under 50 and looks like he'll have to put some effort in campaigning certainly amounts to "tougher."

I'd have chalked that up to the late entry to the race by John Stephen, a better candidate than was expected, to the extent that he's a former state Health and Human Services secretary and the guy who narrowly lost the 2008 GOP primary in NH-01 to Jeb Bradley. But Lynch fares pretty much identically against random businessman Jack Kimball, suggesting that declines in the Democratic brand in New Hampshire are rubbing off even on the redoubtable Lynch.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6780/nhgov-lynch-up-double-digits-but-under-50

[Tesha]

1. Lynch's positions are all basically Republican, so I think this year I'll just let the Republicans..

...vote for him.

He's disgusted me for the last time.

Tesha

[SoxFan]

2. Amen, Tesha!

On case non-Granite Staters are wondering why we consider John Lynch to be a fake Democrat, consider that this track record:

Speaking at a John McCain campaign rally
Badmouthing President Obama's health care plan during his state of the state address
Using state employees as political pawns
Waffles and wavers on marriage equality
Caving in to PSNH and opposing efforts to clean up the filthy, coal-fired Bow Station
Hacking state services for the mentally ill and trying to divert funds to private agencies where his friends are directors
Reappointing GOPer Kelly Ayotte as attorney general instead of qualified Democrats like Peter McDonoug, Janice Rundles, or John Kacavas
Endorsing Bob Odell over Jay Phinizy, one of the smartest and most decent men in NH government
Playing footsie with Ted Gatsas
Taking that silly pledge to uphold a broken and unfair tax structure

I'll write in Jay Phinizy for governor this time, and I won't be the only one.

[Arkana]

3. If he's up by double digits then he really does not have a problem.

Even incumbent Presidents rarely poll above 50% during an election cycle. You'll see things like 49-43, 48-44, 50-43 splits--but if a candidate polls over 50% consistently it means his opponent is REALLY bad.

[HughMoran]

4. And he doesn't actually have an opponent yet

There's no way that all of the undecideds are Republicans.

[Jennicut]

5. I love NH but the politics in it is just weird. Live free or die. Uh-huh.

Love those White Mountains though.