"surely just a matter of (not much) time before payrolls turn positive,"

[Clio the Leo]

Private sector sheds 22,000 jobs in Jan., ADP says
Challenger layoffs report sees first gain since July

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Private-sector firms in the U.S. eliminated 22,000 jobs in January, the 24th decline in a row, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday.

It was the fewest jobs lost since 22,000 jobs were added in January 2008. Fewer jobs have been lost every month since a record 736,000 jobs were lost last March.

"Given the clear improving trend in ADP, it is surely just a matter of (not much) time" before payrolls turn positive, wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief domestic economist for High Frequency Economics.

"Growth of overall private employment is on the verge of turning positive," said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, the consultancy that developed and maintains the ADP employment report based on anonymous payroll data provided by ADP.

In December, a revised 61,000 jobs were lost, compared with the 84,000 originally reported, ADP said. Read the full report on ADP's website.

Jobs in the service sector increased by 38,000, while goods-producing industries cut 60,000, including 25,000 in manufacturing.

Large businesses cut 19,000 jobs, small businesses cut 12,000, and medium-sized businesses (between 50 and 500 workers) added 9,000, the first increase since January 2008.

In a separate report, Challenger Gray & Christmas said U.S. corporate layoff announcements climbed 59% in January to 71,482, the first month-to-month increase since July. Layoffs were down 70% compared with a year earlier. The unscientific survey is not seasonally adjusted. See full story on the Challenger layoffs report.

The ADP jobs data come two days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its estimate of January nonfarm payrolls. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are looking for payrolls to rise 25,000 in the BLS survey, just the second gain in two years. See our complete economic calendar and consensus forecast.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/private-sector-sheds-22000-jobs-in-jan-adp-says-2010-02-03-82200?reflink=MW_news_stmp

Ok Kurt .... come tell us why this is not as good as it sounds. ;)

[DJ13]

1. Our jobs created measurement actually needs to start at a baseline of 150,000

Thats how many people are added to the available workforce every month.

Anything below that 150,000 is still fewer jobs than needed just to maintain the current jobless rate.

[boppers]

2. The company I do most of my work for grew payroll 108% last year.

We're expecting another 86% in payroll growth this year, as we took a down economy to go on a hiring and training splurge.

Interesting caveats:
Small (<80K) job market.
Hi-tech jobs in resort/small city.
Marketing company (not manufacturing or direct service).
Most jobs were <$35K entry-level jobs.