Republicans getting excited about Dan Coats entering Senate race need to "chill a bit."

[ProSense]

AP - Analysis: Can the GOP win control of Congress?

WASHINGTON – Just weeks ago, it seemed inconceivable the Republicans could win control of Congress this fall.

Not anymore.

Almost by the day, Republicans are sensing fresh opportunities to pick up ground. Just Wednesday, former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats announced he would try to reclaim his old seat from Democrat Evan Bayh, who barely a year ago had been a finalist to be Barack Obama's running mate. And Republicans nationwide are still celebrating Scott Brown's January upset to take Edward Kennedy's former seat in Massachusetts.

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Wait, haven't the pundits been predicting a Democratic bloodbath for months?

Can Republicans Win the Senate?

by Ed Kilgore, February 3, 2010

With yesterday's easy primary victory by Mark Kirk in IL, and with the news that former Sen. Dan Coats will leave his lobbying gig to take on Evan Bayh in IN, Republicans are now getting excited about the possibility of retaking the Senate this November.

They should probably chill a bit. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post breaks down the ten Democratic seats Republicans would have to win--without losing any of their own--to regain control of the Senate. And while anything's possible if this turns out to be a "wave" election, running this particular table will be very difficult.

To start with the least likely Republican victories, Chris Dodd's retirement makes Democratic attorney general Richard Blumenthal a solid front-runner in CT. Republicans must negotiate a difficult primary and then take on one of the most popular politicians in recent Nutmeg State history. Similarly, CA Republicans must get through a tough primary before taking on Sen. Barbara Boxer, one of the more popular politicians in a state that really hates its politicians (in both parties) these days.

Bayh will hardly be an easy mark The never-defeated former Boy Wonder of Hoosier politics, he's sitting on $13 million in campaign cash, and has a history of winning big in good Republican years. Meanwhile, Coats has to deal with bad publicity over his ten years of DC lobbying work, including representation of banks and equity firms. And he's been voting in Virginia, not Indiana, all that time.

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[Jennicut]

1. No way they are winning in CT. The competition is a failed rep already kicked out once and Linda

McMahon. I see Blumenthal destroying anyone the CT GOP put up. He is not anything like Coakley and is widely liked by both Dems, Rethugs, and Indies.

[Ghost of Tom Joad]

2. Florida is never mentioned

if Rubio wins the primary will Florida swing back to the dems because of teabaggers and their support of Rubio?

[Cha]

3. We must have some RepubliCONS on board..

bc my Rec didn't cancel out the previous unrecs.