Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

"Obamaís troubles is, simply, the continuing weakness of the job market."

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » General Discussion: Presidency Donate to DU
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:08 PM
Original message
"Obamaís troubles is, simply, the continuing weakness of the job market."
Krugman:

Of Fate and Fumbles

It has not been a good year for Obama, or for the progressive agenda. But why? Ignore all the pontificating about how Obama needed to focus differently, seek bipartisanship with people who have no interest in making a deal, etc.. The primary factor in Obamaís troubles is, simply, the continuing weakness of the job market.

<...>

What seems clear to me is that the economics were bound to be difficult. Long before the bad numbers started rolling in, there were strong reasons to believe that the economy was in for a prolonged jobless recovery. For one thing, thatís what had happened after recent US recessions, and this slump seemed to share the same characteristics; for another, prolonged periods of weak employment are normal in the aftermath of financial crises (pdf).

So one case you can make is that Obama was just fated to have a bad first year. FDR had the good luck not to take office until more or less everything that could go wrong, had; the bank runs had already happened, the big decline in GDP was already nearing its end. Obama, by contrast, came into office early enough to take the blame for the continuing slump.

more


Krugman also states:

What is clear, however, is that the Obama economic team didnít see themselves as being in that position. All indications are that the top people believed that the economy would start adding jobs and unemployment would start falling fairly quickly even without a big stimulus. I donít know why they hadnít taken on board the lessons of the past two recessions, plus that of financial crises elsewhere, but they clearly hadnít.


That's just not accurate.


All in all, the legitimate infrastructure spending, which in its expanded form would include Obama's ambitious plans to invest heavily in renewable energy sources, will most likely not start coming on line until the fourth quarter of the year and its full effect is at least 12 to 18 months away. In other words, the fiscal stimulus measures that the incoming Administration will be pushing through are more a 2010 story.

The same needs to be recognized regarding the new President's assertion last week that his economic stimulus plan will create or save between 3 and 4 million jobs over the next two years. Even if these numbers were to be momentarily accepted at face value, the job creation almost certainly be heavily back-loaded. It's precisely for that reason that the Obama team is referring to such expected outcomes over the time frame of the next two years, carefully refraining from attaching a specific estimate to 2009 alone.

link


"But, as I made clear at the time it was passed, the Recovery Act was not designed to work in four months - it was designed to work over two years," said Obama. "We also knew that it would take some time for the money to get out the door, because we are committed to spending it in a way that is effective and transparent. Crucially, this is a plan that will also accelerate greatly throughout the summer and the fall. We must let it work the way it's supposed to, with the understanding that in any recession, unemployment tends to recover more slowly than other measures of economic activity."

link



Exclusive: Obama stimulus reduced our pain, experts say

Unemployment would have hit 10.8% ó higher than December's 10% rate ó without Obama's $787 billion stimulus program, according to the economists' median estimate. The difference would translate into another 1.2 million lost jobs.


The stimulus did what it was supposed to, and there is no guarantee that an additional $300 to 400 billion would have made a huge difference to date. Even Krugman admits this might not have been politically possible. In fact, the proposed stimulus was $900 billion.

State-Level Data Show Recovery Act Protecting Millions From Poverty

In addition to keeping more than 6 million Americans out of poverty in 2009, ARRA is reducing the severity of poverty for 33 million additional Americans who are poor by lifting their incomes, typically by more than $700. Due to data limitations, these figures are conservative and underestimate the number of people that the seven ARRA provisions examined here have helped in 2009.


OBAMA ADMINISTRATION AWARDS NEARLY $1.4 BILLION IN HOMELESS GRANTS

Highlights of HUD's Homeless Assistance

  • HUD is awarding nearly $1.4 billion to renew funding to 6,445 local programs. HUD awarded $1.2 billion to 5,825 renewal projects last year.

  • More than $738 million is being awarded to 2,997 projects that provide permanent housing solutions for homeless families and individuals, including persons who are chronically homeless

  • More than 3,200 local projects that serve families with children will receive over $733 million.

HUDís housing and service programs funded through the Continuum of Care competition establish the foundation for communities to serve many of the nationís most vulnerable individuals and families. Based on the Annual Homeless Assessment Report (AHAR) released by HUD in July 2009:

  • Nearly 1.6 million people use emergency or transitional housing programs over the course of a year; and

  • On a given night, approximately 664,000 people are homeless. Of those:

    1. More than 124,000 are chronically homeless;

    2. 36.5 percent are chronic substance abusers;

    3. 26.3 percent are severely mentally ill; and

    4. About 15 percent are veterans.


Also, while everyone is debating health care reform and acknowledging the benefits to Americans, the economy and deficit reduction, this ambitious effort is part of Obama's agenda to alleviate the financial burden and suffering of millions of middle class and poor Americans.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:13 PM
Response to Original message
1. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #1
20. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
pretzel4gore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 04:20 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. unfortunate typo..
i forgot about Obama. He was a hero only a year ago. The kakaka reference was to rush limbah and robinson and the hate radio goons who REVEL in the way Obama is forced to defy his supporters. I am sorry, though, if anyone po'ed at the gist of that post. God only knows what Obama is going through- the reactionaries are so slimy; they win by losing, by winning, and by having a tie. My hatred for reactionarkies is blinding. Palin will soon be president. That's where the kkk idea comes from.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Rosa Luxemburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:15 PM
Response to Original message
2. The US has to start making things to export
it is not as simple as throwing money at jobs - we need that too but we need to start producing and we need markets. Jobs are going overseas and our trade deficit is HUGE (thanks to Obama's predecessors).
Obama does not have a magic wand. Maybe Mr. Krugman could help out?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Jeff In Milwaukee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 07:11 PM
Response to Reply #2
29. The hole that we are in is mighty deep....
Go back before the Bush Administration, back in the 1980's when the U.S. started exporting manufacturing jobs overseas. Trying to reverse nearly thirty years of really bad economic policy is going to take time.

I don't know where to start first. Keeping and creating good manufacturing jobs requires (among other things) reasonable and stable healthcare costs. So healthcare reform that includes serious cost containment is an important part of the solution.

But there are lots of other things, like campaign finance, that are necessary to keep off-shore corporate interests the hell out of our political system. Banking reform. Securities reform.

Etc., etc., etc.

I'm glad I'm not Obama. He's got the worst job in the world.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:18 PM
Response to Original message
3. And the appearance of "weakness" period
I'm sorry to say. I adore the President, but he's been looking more like Carter than FDR thus far.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:25 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. You know what:
The jobs picture is moving rapidly in the right direction. As stated in one of the articles in the OP, the jobs will be back-loaded. The point is, that the stimulus's full effects haven't been felt. Jobs created this year will likely put the job growth in positive territory. If it accelerates, then people will have to acknowledge that fact.

Right now, it's easy to say it hasn't worked. No one believed the stimulus was going to be the first and last effort to create jobs.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. I'm not saying the stim package hasn't worked. I think it has.
And, I'm sure it's done much more good than we realize.

However, I don't think the President has the appearance of a strong leader of late. I think he needs to start fighting Republicans for starters. I HOPE he'll get some of his proverbial strength back, when he gives his SOTU address. :hi:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. The problem with fighting Republicans:
there is none. Still, think about this: The Republicans aren't supporting anything. Everything being attributed to Republicans is coming from the likes of people like Evan Bayh, so-called Democrats.

The Repubicans are out trying to kill health care reform. Not a single one of them voted to advance it to this point.

The President is pushing to pass reform. What is with the meme about being nice to Republicans?

Talking about working together isn't wrong, but I see no evidence that he's altering his agenda to suit Republicans. Whatever happened to actions speak louder than words?



Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 04:37 PM
Response to Reply #14
22. I'm not talking about altering his agenda. I'm talking about forcefully
pointing out that Republicans are obstructing. I'm talking about taking the battle to them, vs. trying to appear "bipartisan" when half the equation isn't interested.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
cherokeeprogressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #6
27. Define "rapidly".
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DJ13 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:21 PM
Response to Original message
4. Public works programs are temporary fixes
Our country has been deliberately de-industrializing since the mid 80's, and as a result the middle class has been shrinking ever since.

Everything about the current crisis stems from that policy.

Credit bubble? People were supplementing stagnant (or declining) wages with credit.

Stock market bubble? People were supplementing lower wages by gambling on stocks.

We need real, long term job growth comprised of solid middle class wages if we are to correct the underlying reasons our economy blew up.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
avaistheone1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #4
28. I agree. Where are the sustainable jobs?
Ones that go beyond the next public works project and the next election?

We are bleeding jobs to countries overseas. Until we fix our free trade policy we are throwing our stimulus money away.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TheKentuckian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:24 PM
Response to Original message
5. I don't call a mandate to buy the most expensive out of pocket policy I've ever had
that also provides the least benefits a plan to alleviate my financial burden but rather a tactic in economic warfare.

The "Hey, man I know you're really struggling but I thought I'd lend you a hand and force you pay about half your rent on this bullshit you can't afford to use" routine fails to demonstrate that he "feels my pain". More like he wishes to cause me more.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DrToast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:26 PM
Response to Original message
7. Where's your double dip, Krugman?
Nowhere to be found.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:28 PM
Response to Original message
8. Nothing is that simple.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Even more simple than you think.
Reagan's approval fell steadily throughout his second year, and it turned around when the economy improved.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. It's not 1983.
Even more simple.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. You're right
Worst economic climate since the Great Depression.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Worst economic climate since 2008.
Still simpler.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:44 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. That makes no sense. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. Sure it does.
As clear as an azure sky of deepest summer.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Political Heretic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:57 PM
Response to Original message
17. ARR, which I supported and wrote a 35 page document of analysis about, is insufficient.
Edited on Mon Jan-25-10 03:57 PM by Political Heretic
ARR was a bill that had the virtue of being impossible to responsibly oppose. Even if you felt the stimulus was weaker and smaller than it needed to be, even if you hated the further watering down of the bill through business tax cuts and other conservative wet dreams granted for the sake of compromise (ARR got zero republican votes) - even despite all that, it was one of those things where any stimulus to the economy was good and doing nothing did greater harm.

Included in the spending were a handful of very excellent funding streams for some very excellent works. It's why it was worth supporting, and I said so then and now.

The main problem however, is that nothing about the weak stimulus bill nor the other actions taken by congress or the administration (to date) show a willingness to address the key structural flaws in our political economy. All economic policy - both policy directed toward wall street and policy directed toward the broader market is focused on putting band-aids on gushing severed arteries, and attempting to revive a failed corporate-capitalist bananna republic.

ARR was an example of cowardice in the face of crisis by Democratic legislators and a Democratic administration. When given the largest political majorities in most of U.S. history and control of every branch of government, Democrats pass weak, meek stimulus, well under half what most Keynesian economists suggest was needed to be fully effective in the most responsive time frame, and only after massive concessions to business lobbyists and conservatives in Washington.

All of this, while the primary focus of economy recovery efforts - a major transfer of wealth to super banks and a policy of economics that put Wall Street in the drivers seat - continued to be aimed at re-inflating the same bubble that put us into this long term downward spiral of smaller "booms" followed by bigger "busts."

The key objection to Democratic economic policy is not that "zero" money has made it to the middle class or to some social investment programs. The key objection to Democratic economy policy as carried out by this administration and by Democratic leadership in both houses of congress is that it quite frankly represents trickle down economics at its finest.

The philosophy behind action so far has been reinflate the bubble, give banks and the financial elite everything they ask for to be "happy" again, and then the benefits of giving banks and Wall Street everything they have wanted and well over a trillion dollars all told and combined, is that that money will then "trickle down" into mainstreet, so that American people can lap the leftover trickle up like stray dogs. And everyone's happy.

ARR, as an emergency stop gap measure, was marginally worth supporting - despite the profound cowardice of its creators.

But as a piece of the bigger picture of this Democratic Party's and this Adinistration's political/economic philosophy toward policy - "trick down Democrats" is what they are, and it's a sick, tragic joke given how far that wall-street cronies first approach falls from what this country needs if we expect it to functionally survive for another generation.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. Massive conflation
The main problem however, is that nothing about the weak stimulus bill nor the other actions taken by congress or the administration (to date) show a willingness to address the key structural flaws in our political economy. All economic policy - both policy directed toward wall street and policy directed toward the broader market is focused on putting band-aids on gushing severed arteries, and attempting to revive a failed corporate-capitalist bananna republic.


Massive.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Political Heretic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 05:05 PM
Response to Reply #18
23. Massive failure at any intelligent rebuttal
As always.

You just just wait to respond until the fax you back your talking points. When you try to respond quickly before getting your material, you look like an even bigger idiot. :(
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Political Heretic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #17
25. Just as an aside, I posted the CBPP report weeks ago.
Edited on Mon Jan-25-10 05:09 PM by Political Heretic
And even argued with people who claimed - incorrectly - that the report was based on projections and estimations of impacts from future years.

That's untrue. This particular report is looking at economic impacts for 2009. Which strengthens the case that ARR was good for something - which it was - rather than good for nothing.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
treestar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 04:02 PM
Response to Original message
19. short memories
That is the American voter. Forgot about Bush already.

then they love capitalism, but seek blame when its natural downturns occur.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Political Heretic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #19
24. "natural downturns."
You sir, are an idiot of the highest order.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-25-10 05:08 PM
Response to Original message
26. It's LOT more than that
anyone who hasn't figured that out by now is either astonishingly naive or disingenuous.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Thu Dec 25th 2014, 03:28 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » General Discussion: Presidency Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC