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Regarding The PPP poll: The closer it looks the more enthused DEMS will become

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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:20 PM
Original message
Regarding The PPP poll: The closer it looks the more enthused DEMS will become
Edited on Sun Jan-17-10 11:21 PM by Perky
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:21 PM
Response to Original message
1. Another poll came out today showing Brown with a ten point lead
Edited on Sun Jan-17-10 11:23 PM by MadBadger
According to polls, its not getting any closer.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Care to source that poll?
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Sure, here it is.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ma_brown_51_coakley_41_in...

I dont know the pollster's record, but I saw it on Pollster today.
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #4
20. Came out yesterday. 21% liberal, 26% conservative
Their base working assumption is that Massachusetts has 5% more conservatives than Democrats.

It's using the same model as the Pajamas Media poll released last week that had Brown up 15 points.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:23 AM
Response to Reply #20
24. Liberal doesnt equal democrat.
DOnt confuse the two. There are plenty of dems who consider themselves moderates or conservatives.
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Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:12 AM
Response to Reply #4
23. Never heard of them.
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Tippy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #4
27. I follow pollster.com some what.... If you notice
That poll was taken on 1/15/20.......before Cokeleys numbers started to move
also has 4.1% margin of error.....and it was an Automated phone, poll....So it is not as bad as it first sounded.
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hlthe2b Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:22 PM
Response to Original message
3. I sure as hell hope so...
How can it be that the "real" Brown is not getting across? I am just damned appalled.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:27 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. That is an oulier for sure
565 on a robopoll is piss poor sample
Robopolls need to sample twice as many as a live person.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:28 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Speaking of robocalls, Rasmussen should be coming out with one more poll...
Tomorrow perhaps. I think KOS will publish one also. If either shows Brown better than +5, we got problems.
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timeforpeace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:26 PM
Response to Original message
5. The closer it looks? He's widening his lead.
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. No he's not
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. Have we seen any polls that show it getting closer?
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. And...?
I don't get your one-liners at times.
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KingFlorez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:34 PM
Response to Original message
10. And it is within the margin of error
So it could actually be a statistical tie. And of course, the poll can't take into account how big turnout will be and turnout could flip things completely.
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SpencerS Donating Member (23 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. But
He hasn't widened his lead. It's still the same 4-point margin, as the last poll. Plus, Joe Kennedy is not included in the poll. It's large turnout from democratic voters that will help Martha Coakley win. And the polls can't predict turnout, especially in a special election.
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leftygolfer Donating Member (287 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:49 PM
Response to Original message
13. I'm more enthused for this than i was in 2008
We NEED this win. We will get it.
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SpencerS Donating Member (23 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. My mistake...
He is up by five. But my argument remains the same.
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krawhitham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 01:21 AM
Response to Original message
15. PPP had Hoffman up 17 points 2 days before election
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DFLforever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 04:34 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. That's interesting.
I had forgotten about those polls.
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Jennicut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #15
19. It was because that poll was taken before Dede Scozzafava pulled out
or it was just in the middle of it. No one thought all her support would go to Owens but most of it did.
With the PPP poll in Mass, I think it may be inaccurate if the pollsters did not screen the most likely voters in the right way. It all comes down to turnout.
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krawhitham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:24 PM
Response to Reply #19
25. Scozzafava pulled out Oct 31st
the poll was on Oct 31st - Nov 1st
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Jennicut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. So it was after she pulled out, huh? They really miscalculated then.
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argonaut Donating Member (246 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 04:51 AM
Response to Original message
17. I can't even begin to express how shellshocked I am by this race.
I mean... Jesus.
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watercolors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 10:11 AM
Response to Original message
18. I so hope you are right!
nt
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fugop Donating Member (901 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 10:50 AM
Response to Original message
21. Approval ratings
The thing that blows my mind about this poll is that they've got voters approving of Obama only something like 44 percent-43 percent. That seems way off for Mass. No other polls indicate his approval that low.
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leftygolfer Donating Member (287 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:08 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. Total BS media spin
Obama is fine in Massachusetts. Coakley will win if we do OUR job and GOTV
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