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Nate suggests a "statistical ray of hope" for Coakley (based on empirical study)

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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 06:54 PM
Original message
Nate suggests a "statistical ray of hope" for Coakley (based on empirical study)
Essentially what he says is that in deep blue states, one can spot the Democratic candidate around +3.4 percent over and above the average among the polls.

Check it out: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com /

There are a couple of problems applying it to the current case.

1. The polls have been all across the board (and one can question their internal validity as well) so the mean of the polling numbers may not "mean" much;

2. In each of the deep blue states, the Dem was ahead- and won (would the variance be expected to look the same if the candidate was behind or had lost?);

3. National and local circumstances are exceptional in the present case.

Still, my bet would be that we'll likely see positive numbers very close to this range. Whether that will be enough- we will see next week.
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 07:02 PM
Response to Original message
1. Is that what we are clutching at? A Ray of hope?
Damn.
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Teaser Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 07:03 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. she's an even bet to win at this point
in my opinion. Better than a ray of hope. Worse than a sure thing.
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Clio the Leo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 07:17 PM
Response to Original message
3. Isn't the whole point the whatchamacallit thingy?
... you know .... like if a polling firm called 100 people and reached 40 Dems, 40 GOP and 20 Independents ... Coakley might be at 45 to 55 for Brown .... but if the pool of Dems in the area in question is LARGER than 40% of the voting population then the poll doesn't accurately represent the actual voting pool. Without knowing how (or if) they adjust for that it's hard to know what poll is bunk and which ones arent.

(hope that makes sense)
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Clio the Leo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 07:36 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Nate dog explains it better than I can....
"Some evidence that polling avgs may underestimate D margins in very blue states; likewise for Rs in very red states. More later."

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/7869693639
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Phx_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 09:54 AM
Response to Reply #5
11. ROLF. No offense Clio because I love you, but I'm laughing my
butt off at your "Nat dog explains it better than I can . . ." comment. Really? Because I thought your "watchamacallit thingy" explanation was pretty analytical. :rofl:

Just teasing ya! Happy MLK day! :hug:
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burning rain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 07:26 PM
Response to Original message
4. Well, we'll see what the old-school precinct captains, ward-heelers, OFA folks,...
and ACORN commandos can do! :D
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NYC_SKP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 08:42 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. In a top-secret (level 6-blue) coded ACORN Message...
...you DID get the top-secret (level 6-blue) coded ACORN Message, didn't you?

:evilgrin:
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burning rain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. I did...
and my ninja suit is freshly laundered and my katana sharp enough to split a hair! :D HEAR ME, GOP! FEAR THE ACORN NINJA ASSASSINS!
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NYC_SKP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Don't forget, each of us is to commandeer 14, not 13, not 15, but 14 school buses...
...fill these with undocumented aliens, preferably dark-skinned, and flood the polling places.

This measure is just in case our voting machine fixing software encounters a glitch.

:P
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 09:51 PM
Response to Original message
9. Recommend
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ChicagoSuz219 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 03:25 AM
Response to Original message
10. I'd always trust Nate...
...before Rasmussen or those other bogus pollsters.
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